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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

jpaladin123 1 post  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2014 9:25 PM Member since: May 7, 2007
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  • jpaladin123 jpaladin123 Apr 23, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Sorry, ethanol has hit the 10 percent blend wall so the price of gas does not matter. We are already blending as much as possible. I do like corn very long term, but 1 or 2 years out the supply demand equation looks very bearish. The USDA predicts all time record Corn in storage 1 year out as supply continues to exceed demand. At some point whoever owns all that product in storage is going to give up on paying the storage costs every year, and carrying the risk of all that product degrading while in storage. They are going to start dumping Corn at significantly lower prices. Only way you get higher prices is a more favorable supply demand balance which could happen some time after the dumping begins and people stop planting to much Corn when the market price drops below their break even price. Short of a global catastrophe like a super volcano going off, or a day after tomorrow instant ice age really happening, you are going to see lower corn prices the next couple years. On top of all that Joule Technology can produce ethanol much cheaper than corn ethanol just about any place on earth with sun light, and that competition is going to hurt Corn prices as Joule ramps up over the next 3 - 5 years. Personally, I do believe that ice age scenario is more likely than most people think but it has not started yet and is not investable.

    Sentiment: Sell

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