is it possible they could enter into joint marketing/service agreements to leverage respective technology (or other) strengths -- without any asset purchase?
I know it's been brought up in many ways -- including by regular shorts/bashers who use their "ongoing concern" as a reason to put up posts designed to influence sentiment negatively.
But every time Nokia is mentioned, it's within the context of "the failed phone company," or its new app, just delivered, cast (by default, because no competing image) as the Company's "renaissance strategy."
What's becoming tragic is the investing public's almost complete lack of awareness of what the Company is today, and it's prospects, from an earnings and multiple standpoint (ie, the direct drivers of pps).
It's incredible to me that Management has not recognized this, and launched a Corporate advertising campaign to re-cast the company's image and positioning, highlighting and exploiting the opportunities, and Nokia's leadership position in networks, mapping and patents.
There are numerous strategic (not just emotional) reasons to do this, and no downside that I can think of.
Also, ERIC has a campaign going (probably national US) -- weights are weak and copy/creative are not that memorable. They'll get the weak feedback numbers and adjust (if their agency and marketing team are any good), so time is short.
Nokia's existing Brand equity, at least in the US, is both a threat and an opportunity. Let it degrade, and you've got a failed phone company with a flip phone image. Leverage the technology leadership, styling, and other strengths that the Brand was well known for, and evolve these equities into the new product lineup and positioning. This had better happen pretty fast. They're running out of time.
I've been long since late July in a long-term position, and want to see this done. It's a no-brainer.
So what does this mean for demand response, FERC, and Order 745?
The Solicitor General’s intention to appeal before the Supreme Court signals an important step in the Order 745 case. The Solicitor General, as ‘gatekeeper’ to cases involving the United States government, has signaled this is a case it believes to be worthy of review by our nation’s highest court. It’s not a responsibility the Solicitor General takes lightly, and its decision shows why this case is so important.
The next step in this legal process is for the Solicitor General to file its brief by January 15th (stating why the Supreme Court should review the lower court’s decision). From there, all eyes will be on the Supreme Court to see whether or not they decide to take up the case.
In the meantime, EDF will be watching this case closely and keeping our Energy Exchange readers up-to-date on new advancements. Regardless of the outcome, there’s no doubt demand response is an invaluable clean energy resource that must play an important role in our transition to a clean energy future. How the Supreme Court decides to treat this case will have a significant effect on how demand response is valued in our energy markets, and to what extent Americans are able to reap the full benefits of this important resource.
Again, hats off to Motsam for identifying early what happened. I held my short position for a bit, but it was clear that buying momentum was building. The relative strength past few days -- since the announcement of the appeal -- has been pretty extraordinary (even with the market-driven dip).
If Healy's position was sincere-- that 745-driven volume is only a small piece of Enernoc's mix, then there shouldn't be much of a positive impact. But one can't argue with the price action the past few days -- exactly since the news hit -- so it is what it is.
Seems to be building strongly, coming off the monumental slide since May (when 745 was set aside).
Sometimes these PR issues take on a life of their own, seen as positive for the sector and all boats float. I think that's what we may be seeing, but it's reversed direction now, and appears to be upward.
I wonder if the PR value, at least, of the 745 appeal -- won't be like the bombs that were set off in the dam in Force 10 from Navarone. Takes some time to take effect.
I do note Enernoc's PPS slide, magnitude and consistency -- since the lower court set aside this past May. Combine this with the seasonality, and typical uptrend this time of year leading into the Q4 report.
Strange (positive) behavior today, holding a point and a half above yesterday's close, despite the bloodletting in the general market. Makes it seem like there are some legs at this level, but who knows, given the light volumes and probable manipulation. Either way, again, good find yesterday on the Supreme Court appeal.
China Mobile, Ooredoo, Nokia Hit 4.1G With LTE-A
DOHA, Qatar -- At the ITU Telecom World 2014, Nokia Networks, Ooredoo Qatar and China Mobile showcased a record-breaking speed of 4.1 Gbps over TDD-FDD LTE. Supported by the Global TD-LTE Initiative, the speed was achieved by combining TDD- and FDD-LTE spectrums and aggregating 10 carriers with 200 MHz bandwidth.
At this speed, operators can match and exceed the expectations of even the most demanding mobile users who would be able to, for example, download a full-length 5 GB high-definition (HD) movie in just 11 seconds and simultaneously upload a 5-minute 30 MB video clip from a concert in less than a second.
The record was achieved using:
• Nokia Networks’ commercial Single RAN Advanced hardware
• including the Flexi Multiradio 10 Base Station for high-capacity throughput
• Software to aggregate carriers on both TDD- and FDD-LTE spectrums
• LTE-Advanced Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) technology
Waleed Al Sayed, Chief Operating Officer, Ooredoo Qatar, said: “We are building the biggest, fastest network in Qatar, so that customers across the country can access next-generation wireless data services. We are very proud that the first-ever ITU Telecom World to be held in Qatar should showcase this record-breaking success with the support of Ooredoo. By deploying our advanced LTE network in Qatar, we are truly laying the foundation for the future.”
Madam Huang Yuhong, Deputy General Manager of China Mobile Research Institute and Secretary General of Global TD-LTE Initiative (GTI) said: “This groundbreaking throughput is a milestone that boosts our efforts as we drive the commercialization and globalization of TD-LTE and TDD-FDD converged technology across the globe. In collaboration with Nokia Networks, our long-standing and trusted partner, we continue to exploit...
Looks like the PR value trumps. Great find, Motsam. I just covered at 15.04 -- virtually breakeven, but the buy momentum appears to be building. We'll see if it's a trap. wouldn't be the first --
Hello Motsam --
While I took some off Friday afternoon, I've still got this short position on as a short term trade. So I'll take the other side.
- Appeal was a virtual certainty, so I don't know how big the news is, or if it's even significant news.
- Enernoc revenue impacted by 745 amounts to less than 2% of its mix. Healy commented on the fact that 745's being quashed did not materially impact Enernoc, so I would imagine that the planned appeal, now going forward, would not have much impact either.
"Energy payments that are the subject of Order 745 have not been a material component of EnerNOC's revenues. Of EnerNOC's approximately $1 billion of revenue over the last three years, these payments have represented approximately 2% of those revenues. EnerNOC's preliminary estimate of the impact of Friday's decision suggests that EnerNOC and its customers could be required to refund in a future period as little as $0 and as much as $20 million if Friday's decision on Order 745 survives any continued appeals process. Order 745 does not pertain to capacity payments which the Company is contractually due or has previously earned."
- I'm also virtually certain that the consensus 70 cents EPS for FY 2015 assumes an appeal, for what it's worth to Enernoc.
Whether or not 745's being put aside is successfully appealed, I'm questioning ENOC's ability to move past the 70 cents annual EPS at a growth rate that will again justify the current multiple. Until then, until this is demonstrated - (i.e. how initiatives like Europe, Japan and the current acquisition will be accretive, especially given the falling energy prices) - I don't see how the share price can justifiably, significantly increase.
2015 consensus revenue growth is only 11%. I believe this simple fact may be validating the growing list of negative concerns.
Other than that, everything is OK.
Revenue grew 38% in 2013, is projected to grow 22% in 2014, and forecast to grow only 11% in 2015. This slowdown is a significant concern in the absolute, and for the multiple. 40X is not consistent with 11% revenue growth.
Earnings were .76 in 2013, but dropped to .37, this year, forecast to rise again to .70 in 2015. So 2015 revenue growth rate has declined to 11% year on year, and 2015 earnings will be lower than 2013 earnings.
In short, the business will generate more earnings this year, but growth is slowing to nothing. All of these numbers, I believe, were before the recent dilution, and before the steep drop-off in energy prices.
I look to Europe and don't see the answer, nor do I in Japan. My last understanding of the regulation changes were that they were neutral to negative for Enernoc. I can't get excited about an 11% growth rate and the tsunami of falling energy prices, and I can't believe that the year end spike we normally see leading into first quarter is warranted -- from PEG, fundamentals or business standpoints.
I guess a lot of this will be clarified in the 10K early next year, and I look forward to it.
When I wrote the post above, the pps was 14.50-14.52, up about 5.5% on the day, as you said.
Enernoc closed the day at 14.93, up only 1.6%, with my short position in the green. This is what I was referring to. Enernoc spikes hugely when something like a 321,000 jobs report hits. It holds the gains in times of plenty (when the company's got plenty going on, PR momentum and strong anticipation for outperforming earnings).
But Enernoc was birthed as a story stock, and it still carries with it vestiges of the investor excitement that surrounded renewables and other energy innovations (like Demand Response) earlier in the decade. The exuberance sometimes gets out of hand. I've watched this happen -- and profited from it -- for years, many times posting here.
If there are legit advancements with the company, we'll know soon enough. There may be volatility but the upward trend bouncing off 14 will continue (of course, flavored by what happens with the more general tide (the broader market).
On the other hand, if nothing new is happening (other than the dilutive acquisition, coming on the heels of the 2% or so share distribution) then we're back down in the 13's, and that could happen pretty fast.
I took off some of my position over the weekend and will be watching next week as to whether I cover on the rest, maintain, or add. Cautiously always with Enernoc, because it can fly either way, as we see continuously.
I really like this Company and always have. I often am long, but sometimes go short in times like this when I think it got ahead of itself.
Good luck to you and greetings to all of those who hang around this board. There are some excellent posters here.
Hey Wonk, your jab is appropriate and I wish you luck. My average is now $15.02 because in fact, I did short more. But that's it, as much of a position as I want to take.
I would caution you -- today is a pretty wild day for the market, and ENOC tends to swing pretty good. But the fundamentals (or lack of fundamentals) I noted in the original post are still intact. ENOC also has a history of crashing pretty hard after these runs, and I just don't see the business support under this share price. I don't know that we are staying here.
Incomplete information (as with all of us), and if I have to cover, I will -- win some lose some.
lesserfool -- greetings --
I always took some solace in the fact that Healy was on a programmed sell - regular quantities and at regular intervals. I figured, hey, the guy took a lot of compensation in stock at startup, he's got a right to cash in on his accomlishments over time. Doesn't mean the company's going down the tubes.
But now I see it's Healy, Dixon, Cushing and Moses. It's all of them selling in the 14-15 range. I have to ask myself -- with all of the factors I noted in the original post of this thread, and with no new news to counteract this malaise -- what am I looking at here?
Caveat -- haven't been keeping up on Enoc that much -- could be things brewing I don't know about. But unless it's some huge move in DR regulation -- or something else that could impact the company positively in the next 12-18 months, I don't see it.
Despite my small short position, I am welcoming of any mention of catalysts or challenge to my assumptions. I have a soft spot for this company, I really respect what they did/are doing. But that and pps are different things sometimes. I think now.
If anyone is still here, check out Market Pulse (on Yahoo menu). Look at the insider selling just today, and not all of the programmed stuff.
Management is running for the hills.
Ferocious, sustained insider selling
Share issuance a couple of weeks ago -- several percent dilution
Acquisition today -- dilutive through YE 2015, with headwinds already in place (not questioning long term value, don't know).
Year End tax loss selling -- it gets vicious with ENOC
Collapse of Energy market/costs - business proposition diluted DR/Efficiency, pretty much every aspect of business
The whole renewables sector was losing its lustre before the shale boom. Now, with costs going through the floor, the relative proposition is watered down. No one could have anticipated this. We were talking energy independence as a National Security issue up until a year ago.
Europe under water
Japan under water
The way the question should be asked is,
What was the base case oil price in Enernoc's 3 or 5-year plans? What will it be now, and how does this impact this business?
That's one concern -- along with tax loss selling this month and a market that's getting toppier by the day. It doesn't seem like a juicy short because it's been beaten up already, but what are the catalysts for growth, in either the business or the share price. Especially compared to the changing environment and threats.
Cheap, readily available energy just isn't what it used to be (like six months ago).
I'm wondering about both the customer proposition -- both DR and Energy Savings. At the least, both propositions have been diluted with a significant reduction in energy costs.
"I think people are still fearful of NOK and don't understand the turnaround the company made, so the stock price will reflect that sentiment."
Isn't that when one wants to buy, before the "Eureka!"
Do I recall a post by Joshua about the global demand for data, the implications for Network CAPEX growth, and even Nokia's forecast share?