Cowen and Company --
I think Twitter’s a short here. I don’t like the stock at all.
They don’t have the ability to grow their user base like FB does.
It’s a complicated model, I don’t think It’s user friendly, and it’s probably getting a little bit of a premium here.
The parternship with Googl is great. It’s actually better for GOOGL than it is for Twitter, but at the end of the day, I’d be long FB and short Twitter, because I think Twitter is overvalued here.
But not to a Company that just spiked to the point where capitalization matches perceived potential. There will need to be more, clearer, for the next leg up. In the meantime, it will get chipped away with a few probable downdrafts, which is why I'm naintaingin the same small short position I had a few weeks ago. I spoke then about TWTR bumping up against 48.75. It can't seem to go any further. 44 will be seen before 50 now, unless there is a concrete catalyst.
The point was made that Twitter shouldn't be looked at in terms of P/E Multiple. Its value should be pegged to what it's worth will be 10 or 20 years from now.
I can understand the logic. When you have a product or service that didn't exist before, it's new and forming -- you can't really use today's earning power as the guauge for what will be. I'm on board with this. Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat, even Whatapp all fall into this Category.
So I"m on board with that portion of the argument (truly, not tongue in cheek). Where it falls out of bed for me -- I've been around for a long time. Even back in the 80's and 90's, technological or other innovations that today seem ancient (and are long gone), seemed then like the end-all - that they would be around forever. It's human nature.
Fast forward to 2015. We are undergoing the fastest technological change in the history of humankind. just look at the past six months, or year!! So much faster than back then! The ubiquity of communication platforms, the technology to support them and the entrepreneurs to make it happen are becoming commonplace. How can one therefore reasonably base Twitter's value today on the possibilities of what it will be worth 10 or 20 years from now? What will change between now and then is staggering, beyond our imaginations. Truly. It's a very flawed argument and you all be careful of running off the mountain.
The simplicity and constraint of this medium (Dorsey's words) are inconsistent with future earnings driven by vast advertising revenues.
That's my long term call, despite how nifty Twitter is.
Shorter term, the hype will deflate. There is tremendous pressure among the pundits, analysts and others in the investment community to conform. Facebook is a much deeper, more comprehensive platform that offers numerous opportunities to morph and grow. Twitter's constraint, by its very nature, precludes this.
Disclosure -- I maintain a small short position (a trade) because of these reasons and several more that are very compelling -- not only about the situation, but about how perception has been managed here.
I think that was a negative, not a positive. They were speaking about this in the context of whether or now we are approaching another bubble. TWTR sentiment has gone completely bonzo, based upon potential that is unclear at best. The pumping that's gone on over the past ten days -- the sheer number of mentions, blogs, how even CRAMER's prediction is pinned up this morning on the Yahoo Finance page, this is not only extraordinary, it's outrageous. This, at the same time the founder is completely cashing in -- look at Feb 4 - Feb 6 Dorsey. This is totally outrageous. I never believed somethign like this could happen in 2015. The power of groupthink, the ability of a few to lead sentiment and whip up frenzy for the "passion of possibility" is just outrageous, again, what's happened here. You'll see.
He said Twitter and FB are going to have to adjust their models -- figure out a way to make it worthwhile for us to put our content out there, and to reap ad revenue, because there are more fertile fields.
Steinberg is a major media buyer.
In addition to this, I have never, ever seen a pump like I have the past week for Twitter, combined wiht the insider selling by Dorsey -- 109 million shares? Is that true? If yes, I don't understand how this can escape the scrutiny of the SEC -- Basically the largest investor PR campaign I've seen in about 15 years (hmmmmm, that was 2000) while the founder sells out en masse. Isn't that the very definition of pump and dump, no matter what the nature of the connections between them?
I think they're gone. The numbers just don't meet.
It will be disruptive at first, positive in the long run, possibly for all.
Shocking, I know.
Markets are going to be down tomorrow. Futures red now, money seems to be flowing into the Dollar. Euro/Dollar sinking again, .5% in the past hour or so.
The article I refer to is by Forbes
5 Essential New Apps: Musikki, Nokia HERE & More
published today on Yahoo at 11:04 a.m.
Which article are you referring to, or can you show us where this article was published on Yahoo Finance on Friday?
Re Android Upgrade
Suprised didn't make it onto NOK's Headlines on Yahoo, but probably will. TWTR is mentioned, so go to TWTR summary page, you'll see the article.
Never, ever seen such a well coordinated PR thrust -- right down to the message boards -- coinciding with earnings. Bravo. Ridiculous.
Ok, I'll listen to you and be frightened of the highly improbable, instead of managing the mostly probable for maximum expected value.
You do it your way. G/L.
The market has pulled up TWTR - every bit of the rise has been the tide --
3-day weekend, expiration next week, 35% run-up with $10 of it this week/last week -- OK -- go ahead and buy here. Sure. I still say we see 44, if not next week, by week after. A breakout will nullify that, but how many tops at 48.75 or so do we need to see, in addition to the 4 or 5 that just occurred? Disclosure -- maintain small short position as a trade, like the business and the stock intermediate to longer term (except some flim-flamming going on with the advertising potential, for sure).
Another dynamic is the opportunity today presents. The ceasefire announce by Putin today takes away a big chunk of uncertainty -- especially for European stocks. Greece is starting to resolve, one way or the other, another piece (and their leaving the Eurozone is no longer considered disaster. Some actually consider it a positive for Europe the the Euro).
So there are many opportunities, suddenly today -- versus a social media stock that just ran 35%, and probably should have run, well, something less. Still a a monster run.
Combine that with end of week, options expiration, I think this is what we are seeing right now with today's dip.
Agree, low to mid 40's maybe, with the premium just created with recent news. All things considered, it was a monster run. Personally, I think they are selling us some things that they dont' know they can execute, or they can execute, but don't yet udnerstand the financial payout (i.e. Vine/Niche). We'll see.
Options, Goldman conference had just finished, no new news. Aquisition cool, but time will tell. Valuation out of this world. But it's a good stock with promise, so intermediate term, I think prospects are bright and no bashing here. Also, disclosure, small short position remains from a few days ago, so I'd like to see the backslide. Biggest thing -- tomorrow is Friday and options day. Friday, huge gains this week, there is going to be normal profit taking within the context of a good stock that just ran fast and hard. Nothing goes up i na straight line, so those buying today, i believe, may, at least, have foregone the opportunity for a better entry tomorrow or early next week. Time will tell and good luck to all, including longs.
I have a small short position. But what you say doesn't make sense -- and it erodes credibility (that's my motivation for responding).
User growth isn't falling. it's slowing. The key will be whether they can monetize the platform fast and effectively enough to create the kind of growth they need to support the multiple -- with the user base size being just one variable in the mix. I still have my doubts that they can (because today's multiple is on alpha centauri). As a long-time advertiser, I understand the changing nature of advertising, its waning acceptance as technology proliferates alternatives, and thus, TWTR's increasingly fast treadmill that i think the CEO and BOARD know very well, thus the insider selling. Like so many company's, it's amazing what they did. But now their stock price got way out of whack. It was a lemming run. I specialize in them for my investing and trading hobbies.
It hovered around 38 - above, below, driven by the market and sentiment of the day surrounding the stock.
I think 43-44 is that level now, and we're heading there, plus or minus market conditions on given days, what's happening with the Social Media sector, and some other things.
That's a HUGE market cap increase, and worthy of the announcements.