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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

jpmarketer 119 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jan 16, 2008
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  • Here is a post from Silly Sally 2938 on March 5, 2014, pumping RVLT. He purports to have inside information that the stock price will rise. At the time of the post, RVLT was in the low 3's, and with days, this poster Sal and his buddies pumped it to 4. It has slowly slid back now to the low/mid 2's.

    Those are just facts. Look at this post, go back and see it before Sal erases it (will be gone within minutes, like all of them are), and then look at the chart for RVLT and the dates I'm telling you.

    Just got an email from an old friend.
    sillysally2938 by sillysally2938 • Mar 5, 2014 11:13 AM Flag
    Said she thinks RVLT's about to ride much higher. eom

    UPDATE -- The post is still up for anyone to see themselves.

    RVLT is still off 40% from where Silly Sally 2938 was pumping the stock in early March.
    Just around the same time he was pumping $25 calls on the ENOC board (Enoc is under $18 today).

    If his posts are true that he holds a large, long-term position in CREE (still down 30% from where Silly Sally was pumping it at 70), and a smaller position in Enoc that he intends to liquidate after the next report, then Silly Sally has incurred huge unrealized losses in these stocks, and is about to realize his significant loss in ENOC.

    Not exactly someone you want to take stock advice from.

  • Reply to

    CREE Short

    by aaronedward2003 Jul 10, 2014 8:57 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer 23 hours ago Flag

    This past January, Silly Sally 2938 pulled out his crystal ball and pumped on this board - as he often does - the EXACT OPPOSITE of what was about to occur:

    Cree 60 W equivalents available in Denver area for $7.97 each at HD
    by denverdude123 •Jan 15, 2014 9:59 AM
    sillysally2938 sillysally2938 • Jan 15, 2014 12:00 PM

    ...Margin expansion is taking place, in my opinion. The bears will soon be hibernating. GLTA shareholders and employees.
    Sentiment: Buy

    Did he read THAT in the Economist?

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 9, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Somebody ought to cut and paste this and send it to Silly Sally. The poor flounder will have a heart attack (G-d forbid).

  • aaronedward, YOU ASKED. Agree with me or not, the following was my motivation for the short.

    YOU ASKED. I shorted CREE at average $50.55 because:

    Indices were at historic highs and bumping along tops that were created by the lower boundaries of their long-term channels. We know what happened two days subsequent (Mon and Tue) -- the market breakdown. I was early.

    VIX was low and complacency seemed high given the geopolitical and other events (we see where VIX went early this week)

    Summer doldrums - July - combined with all the above. Yikes.

    Within a market that felt afraid and lumbering to me (possibly dropping tide) CREE had serious issues raised in the last report that cut at the essence of the Company's multiple and share price. They're just not addressed in my view. There may be an opportunity to profit from this deviation between the real risk to CREE, short term/upcoming report -- and this flawed belief system that's hung over on the excitement generated by this story stock before the commoditization started.

    CREE's shelf space, presence and marketing/merchandising support in HD is not indicative to me of a dominant Brand, across numerous metrics.

    CREE sales head replacements - one guy has no consumer, and the other guy has no sales experience. Removals I believe (as is most often the case) were the result of Strat Plan not being achieved. I believe he IBD Article was a major exposure/fiasco of the Company's defensive stance on this.

    All of this was reinforced by the press I was reading, stating that while the Company's long term prospects are bright, short term margin pressures are going to make for a rocky time. This, right before the report where trend was broken in the last report. I was banking on people starting to become aware of this, and then the second leg down when the report comes out. I believe there is more than a 50% chance of this.

    That's why.

  • Reply to

    JP and Short Covering and Margins

    by aaronedward2003 Jul 9, 2014 5:52 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 9, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    My previous posts explained my short, when I shorted, my cover, when I covered, and at what levels for all.
    aaronedward2003,
    if you go back and look at my post after I covered, I characterized the trade as "sloppy," in at the wrong point, and averaged up more than I wanted to. It was a small, short-term trade that I hoped to make into a larger, longer term trade. But that morning, when I saw in pre-market the up futures, Oppenheimer upgrade and CREE spike -- I believed I would exceed my cover target that day (it did by a lot) and I covered. At exactly the time and amount I said I did.

    This is how I've made money over the years trading. Limiting my losses and letting the gains run. The size of the trade was mocked. I should have shorted with more, this high beta stock that has a history of huge moves?

    You ever get whipsawed on a high beta Cree-like trade? Gotta start small, especially with a short position.

    I come from a board, several years there, and a few before it, where several people, like you and the others, speak pretty openly about pro's and cons. Typically, some of us - not all - would post our position so that it was clear we were "speaking our book." It's a stab at straightforwardness. Like disclosure. So I've got a short position (or a long position), and I'm laying out my case for why.

    Sometimes, and maybe even often, new posters would freak out. New shorts would call me a pumper if I was noting strengths and opportunities, and new longs (and yes, some older longs) would call me basher if I were laying out a case for weaknesses or threats.

    No pump, no bash. That's it.

    I'll tell you one thing. Good thread on the margins and mix shift. Critical issues for CREE in the upcoming report. Some posters put out some good stuff, pro and con. Good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 9, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    I see that all the Industrial, Commercial Smart fixtures and other LIghting products are captured in the 10Q in "Lighting." Does this mean that for these products -- ALL lighting products and not just the Type A bulbs, that the average gross margin (3 months ended March 30, 2014) is 27% and dropping (versus company wide average of 37.8%, which includes LED and RF)? If this is true, and the LED modules and chips make up what the 10Q calls LED, and the growth of Commercial, Industrial and Residential Lighting is the driver of Strat Plan Volumes......

    Am I looking at this right - Thank you

    Conversely, someone show me the opportunity to maintain margins, or offset the margin reduction with Sales growth.

    Is what Silly Sally is driving at (besides all the chatboard bull stuff about me and others, he apparently HAS been around a long time) -- is he saying that consumer bulb volume will be blowout (which I could reasonably see) and this will fund the Company while margins are low as they develop these markets? That could be cool, but would want to see how it all comes together quantitatively. They HAVE to talk about this factor in the call, imo.

  • Got to start getting back into the goings on, ruling, auction, what's happening.

    Have to be also careful about market conditions, with the big drop past two days, and not knowing if more is coming.

    Wondering if any new info out there anyone has to share in terms of DR prospects generally, ENOC specifically. Will search news over next few days, wondering about Japan in particular.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    Ok, literally, and thank you. But your point doesn't detract from the point being made. Let's just substitute "sales volumes" for "market share." It now reads,

    ---- It's not that earnings, or even "good earnings" cannot be achieved with lower % gross margins. They can! But a correspondingly higher sales volumes must be achieved to generate the funds needed to cover fixed costs and guided EPS. ----

    Point is, when margins drop, you have to do more business to generate the same gross profit. I don't think you would disagree with this.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Hey, aaronedward -- one more thing - your last question, specifically, because it's the operative one -- "What is wrong with a lower margin as long as volume increases the EPS?"

    NOTHING, in the absolute. However, please consider --

    The achievement of a given share of market yields a particular sales $ volume.

    This sales volume X the gross margin % provides the funding for all "under the line" expenses (like the SG&A and R&D) and the Company profits as well (earnings).

    Hey, aaronedward -- one more thing - your last question, specifically, because it's the operative one -- "What is wrong with a lower margin as long as volume increases the EPS?"

    NOTHING, in the absolute. However, please consider --

    The achievement of a given share of market yields a particular sales $ volume.

    This sales volume X the gross margin % provides the funding for all "under the line" expenses (like the SG&A and R&D) and the Company profits as well (earnings).

    It's not that earnings, or even "good earnings" cannot be achieved with lower % gross margins. They can! But a correspondingly higher share of market must be achieved to generate the funds needed to cover fixed costs and guided EPS.

    Or, said another way, if the higher market share is not achieved to offset the reduced gross margin %, then EPS growth will be negatively impacted. Even with the multiple remaining constant, this would create downward pressure on the share price that was predicated on higher margins. THAT'S THE CONCERN. FOR THE SHARE PRICE AT 50. NOT THAT THE COMPANY CAN'T BE A GOOD COMPANY WITH LOWER MARGINS. IT CAN. BUT IT WOUDLN'T BE WORTH 50 BUCKS PER SHARE.

    CREE IS doing well now, with great products and a potentially bright future (ha ha). Many, many legitimate strengths and opportunities have been rightly touted on this board (some by me).

    This issue I raise is the primary challenge (threat) as noted by the Investment Community upon issuance of the last report, and something to be reckoned with in the next few weeks.

    Management addresses the mix shift head on in the call, and they have the numbers and reasonable guidance to back it up, then this baby flies.

    They don't, we see another gap down like last time. I think we're looking at a very binary outcome here because a lot is at stake.

    Good luck to you in your investing.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    Retail business is structured very differently from a manufacturer. Retail net operating margins are typically low single digits. That's a function of the tremendous volume, and the type of fixed cost base required to run the business.

    The fixed cost base for a manufacturer is typically a much higher percent of sales revenue than that of a retailer. So more gross profit per unit (higher gross margin percentage) is needed to fund this base. Two of the big drivers are SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative Expense) and R&D.

    In the case of CREE, this fixed cost base did balloon between 2011 and 2013, with SG&A alone up 70% if I remember right. This makes sense -- for the sales and support alone required to build the non-consumer segments. And we know CREE needs a lot of R&D to develop its technology. Retailers do not have corresponding expenses.

    But at the same time CREE's fixed cost base is ballooning, its average gross margin percent is shrinking, because the gross profit on Lighting is 27%, while Lighting is growing at 38%. LED, on the other hand, has higher gross margins of 48%, but is only growing at 3%. So Lighting is growing as a share of the mix, and LED is shrinking as a share of the mix.

    With Company Gross Margin down from 44% in 2011 to 37.8% YTD 2014, there is negative leverage here on the P&L with the high fixed costs. If THAT MARGIN PERCENT TO SLIPS FURTHER, WITHOUT CORRESPONDING REDUCTIONS IN THE FIXED COST BASE, NET OPERATING PROFIT WILL DROP FURTHER. Problem is, more SG&A than ever now is needed to expand distribution, especially in non-Consumer markets per the Strat Plan.

    That's the problem. It's the relationship between the overall amount of gross profit generated, and the size of the fixed cost base it's got to fund. Wal-mart's in great shape with that relationship. And CREE is doing Ok today. It's the trend - going forward, as the price wars heat up, where the analysts are worried that CREE's gross profit contribution is thinning.

  • I have made one simple point that I open for legitimate debate:

    The growth rate of Cree's higher margin products (LED) is relatively low and decelerating. The growth rate of Cree's lower margin products (Lighting) is relatively high and accelerating. This, along with ballooning Selling, General and Administrative costs (needed to grow the Residential, Commercial and other non-consumer segments) have halved net operating income for FY 2013 versus FY 2011. This has fundamentally weakened the company, as the Street noted in the PPS drop from 70 to 45 upon the issuance of the last report.

    All of this info is available in the Summary of the Q3 2014 Company 10Q which can be found in the SEC Filings Tab on the CREE page in Yahoo Finance (same place you get to the message board).

    My contention is that these margin and growth trends are causing a miss versus the Company Strategic Plan, and that's a big reason (and typical reason) that both Sales heads were replaced.

    Anyone willing to have a legitimate discussion of the numbers behind each of the statements I made above, and the real implications for Cree? Or, if there are positive factors not reflected in these numbers, why the story is not concerning as thought upon the issuance of the last report.

    I propose that understanding this key issue better can make for a better decision as to whether to hold, sell, or buy more before earnings.

    Take a look over on the ENOC board, and you'll see a uniform history of great discussion like this, pro and con. For years. Our trades too, right out there in the open. We often commented on how lucky we were, what a great board, for how long. Was nice while we had it.

  • Reply to

    Re: CREE's Strat Plan,Mix Shift and Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 11:45 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Silly Sally just ignored every issue and is trying to divert attention. How clear can it be. His next post will be to tell you about his girlfriend's assessment of other poster's personal endowment, and then he'll tell us all how his girlfriend just passed him an inside note that CREE is going up, like he did with RVLT, as I exposed a few posts back. Don't you folks see what you've got here? Some of what he says is factually correct, but he's ignoring ALL OF THE THREATS TO THE BUSINESS. At the same time, any dissenting viewpoint is being attacked, and chaff thrown 50 feet in the air to divert attention. You're being led!!!! Herded!!!!! Qualitative dribble.

    gpsiir - you said you'd bite, but you didn't. Not on the issues I'm raising. Will someone?!

    LED grew at 3% this year versus 38% for LIghting. LED margins are 48% and rising, while LIghting margins are 27% and dropping. Why did LED grow 3% later in 2014, down from 8% earlier in 2014 (decelerating growth) if LED is going to generate all the earnings to justify the growth assumptions and multiple? Unless Silly Sally can address these questions, then the investment community's concerns about CREE (which dropped the PPS from 70-45 overnight upon the last report) stand. Take a look at the STREET's hold rating, reiterated several times now, and its C+ rating. Why won't anyone here tackle these issues head on instead of throwing up chaff, personal attacks, and qualitative, colorful language about product quality, great products and a bright future? Their light bulbs are awesome! But operating profit is 7% and dropping, probably significantly lower full year 2014 when the report comes. That's because lighting margins suck and lighting is dominating the mix.

    Who is willing to address what I'm saying here? If I'm wrong, show me. If I'm right, let's understand the implications and factor the risk in with the Company's significant opportunities. Otherwise, you're selling yourself a bill of goods that you want to hear.

  • Reply to

    Re: CREE's Strat Plan,Mix Shift and Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 11:45 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    To each his own, gpsiir. Good luck to you in your investing. You are welcome to be done with me at any time by putting me on ignore. You have not yet, apparently.

    And thank you for biting.

    I have made one simple point that I open for legitimate debate:

    The growth rate of Cree's higher margin products (LED) is relatively low and decelerating. The growth rate of Cree's lower margin products (Lighting) is relatively high and accelerating. This, along with ballooning Selling, General and Administrative costs (needed to grow the Residential, Commercial and other non-consumer segments) have halved net operating income for FY 2013 versus FY 2011. This has fundamentally weakened the company, as the Street noted in the PPS drop from 70 to 45 upon the issuance of the last report.

    In support of these FACTS (not implications, indications, suppositions, suppositories, or anything else), I respectfully direct you back to the Q3 2014 SEC filings, not to examine revenue growth (which is low versus the multiple for a PEG that is now in question), but the mix shift I'm illuminating for you. There is specific, striking, quantitative backup for each of the assertions I have made above.

    This mix shift is dangerous, it's got investor's nervous about CREE, and in my opinion, you should be too. In a healthy way, that balances strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Every business has all of these, not some of them, and to speak one side-edly in the way you and some others are, in my opinion, does not serve you or them.

  • Reply to

    Re: CREE's Strat Plan,Mix Shift and Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 11:45 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Please tell us what they are, jackedup. Tell us 9 months ended March 30, 2014, and 3 months ended March 30, 2014.

    What's the number for LIghting margin, what direction is it headed in, and how does it compare with LED, RF and the CREE Company average?

    You and others keep saying, "Ignore the man behind the green curtain." All the man behind the green curtain is doing is telling you to look at the report.

    You're on Yahoo now, so go to the SEC Filings Tab and pull up the April 22, 2014 10Q summary for Q3 Fiscal 2014. Scroll down, the charts are right there. Then, if you want to have an honest debate without name calling, I would be pleased to engage.

  • Here is a post from Silly Sally 2938 on March 5, 2014, pumping RVLT. He purports to have inside information that the stock price will rise. At the time of the post, RVLT was in the low 3's, and with days, this poster Sal and his buddies pumped it to 4. It has slowly slid back now to the low/mid 2's.

    Those are just facts. Look at this post, go back and see it before Sal erases it (will be gone within minutes, like all of them are), and then look at the chart for RVLT and the dates I'm telling you.

    Just got an email from an old friend.
    sillysally2938 by sillysally2938 • Mar 5, 2014 11:13 AM Flag
    Said she thinks RVLT's about to ride much higher. eom
    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Covered 51.70 pre-market

    by jpmarketer Jul 3, 2014 8:40 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 9:03 PM Flag

    Please tell us the margins for Lighting, interclay. What were they FY 2013, versus the company average, versus LED?

    Also, please tell us the growth rate for CREE's lighting business versus that of LED.

    Let's get into a discussion of the numbers, if you would like. There are only a few key ones, and they tell a very powerful story. Just go to the recent 10Q and tell us.

    If you won't, why? Where is Silly Sally? Why won't he answer the earlier question about the mix shift from LED to Lighting, and the continued erosion of net operating profit? Is that an embellishment for effect, you think? LOOK AT THE NUMBERS:

    growth rate for Lighting
    margins for LIghting

    Growth rate for LED
    margins for LED

    WITH 3 OF 4 QUARTERS FOR FISCAL 2014 IN THE BAG.

    I supposed the entire investment community is also spewing "rubbish" when CREE dropped from 70 to 45 upon this same report? Just let's hear the numbers, and then people can make their own decision.

    That isn't me, it's the Company's 10Q. Read it and tell us about LED's 3% growth (with high 40's% gross margin) vs. Lighting's 38% growth with only 27% margins (versus Company average 38.7%), and dropping like a stone.

    Oops, I did it again. Some of your homework.

    Interclay, I understand your fear of the facts I'm posting if you're long. I'm sorry for you and others who have been herded into another high beta, volatile story stock that is manipulated, runs hard, and is managed by a few communicators -- one in particular who has developed a perverted sense of entitlement to sheep proceeds.

    Look at the numbers so we can have an honest discussion of CREE's opportunities and threats - not the rubbish you're being fed by the likes of idiots such as the silly board clown.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 7, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    I agree with you. Philips has an overwhelming presence in terms of number of SKU's and amount of product on shelf. But their packaging, imo is far inferior to CREE's, the assortment is a mess (and with that number of boxes, everything out of order), whereas CREE's shelf is linear, its 12 SKU's, 2 color temp choices in each wattage, simple. I agree. In the Trade, we call it product rationalization. Cree's is elegant, as is their packaging and design. I don't like the margin mix shift and hope Silly Sally will soon come back to tell his thoughts on the Strategic Plan for LED, how it will close the margin gap being created by Lighting to continue growing earnings consistent with today's multiple. But I've always said CREE's packaging and design are really top notch, I believe very tasteful and communicative.

  • Below, I posted several concerns about the Strat Plan you have been speaking about.

    Specifically, I raised margin mix shift issues and how they are impacting operating profit.

    I have about a dozen posts I see from you inferring this, or that, about the Strat Plan, specifically about Lighting Fixtures driving the growth. Please help us understand the growth rate of that segment versus Lighting, the margins, and why the shifting mix shouldn't concern us in terms of the maintenance of Cree's multiple (the exact concern noted by the investment community upon the last report, which dropped the pps from 70 to 45). My basis of reference includes the summary tables in the 10Q, which I'm sure you are familiar with.

    Now, everyone is waiting....

    Thank you,
    -JPmarketer

  • CREE's net operating profit dropped from 15% in 2011 to 7% in 2013. This was driven primarily by 2 things:

    1. A drop in gross margin from 44% to 37.8%, and
    2. The ballooning if SG&A, primarily attributable, I believe, to the Commercial and Industrial Segments.

    Now peel back the layers on that gross margin. CREE's Lighting margins are low and dropping. But Lighting is becoming a larger part of CREE's mix. At the same time, LED commands margins in the high 40's, but is shrinking as a proportion of the mix.

    Check out the Q3 2014 Report, and look at the growth rate for LED in the 3 month period ending March 30 - 2014 compared to 2013. CREE's LED revenues grew only 3%, versus Lighting revenues that grew 38%. Now look at the margins for Lighting!

    THIS is what I think the Street saw with the April report. A mix shift toward lower margin Lighting that could unravel the financial infrastructure of the Company medium-term, and is absolutely impacting the multiple short term/now.

    Pokernstocks -- you said that gross profit dollars, not %, are all that matters. I disagree. That declining margin (driven by the mix shift), along with the heavy SG&A expenses required in the ultra competitive on-premise segments (Commercial, Residential, Industrial, etc -- non consumer) -- are driving operating profit south of 7% - HALVED in 24 months. This affects EVERY key financial performance metric, like ROACE (Return on average Capital Employed), ROE (Return on Equity), and so on. Why does that matter? Because assessments of risk, cost of capital, so many things are predicated upon the RETURN on the investment in CREE, and the RETURN is shrinking, even as the gross profit dollars grow.

    One more thing - Silly Sally is clear that Lighting Fixtures will drive the growth, per the Strat plan he knows so well. What was the growth for Fixtures this year, versus Lighting -- the margins, same exercise as above?

    It's a problem -- they are off track with the strat plan

  • Reply to

    What the Lighting Wars Are

    by jpmarketer Jul 4, 2014 6:06 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 5, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Thanks. The first thumbs up on your post is mine.

    I want to read the transcript first in its entirety, which I'll do in the next few days.

    CREE needs much stronger creative and introductory/sustaining media weights than what I saw in the New York market over the course of a few weeks, a few months ago. If they can make themselves synonomous with LED lighting, like for example, Kleenex is to tissues, or Drano is to drain opener, they can rise above the commoditization, even at higher price points. Fact is, I believe they have the technology and design differentiation to stand out from the competition in ways that are meaningful and relevant to consumers (and gorgeous packaging).

    But if they blend in -- with mediocre advertising at blah weights, and with an in-store presence that is dwarfed by Philips and lost on shelf, then they will be sucked into the commodity war and there is no escape.

    They HAVE the opportunity to differentiate their technology and design, and to smartly leverage their commercial biz against consumer (as you referenced in your quote, and as CREEman referenced in his "Business plan post" a few posts ago).

    THIS is the MOST relevant conversation for CREE right now, imo. They've got a bang-up product, national distribution, and unique, meaningful differentiation in a category that is moving from early adopter trial to mass adoption - what the longs here see and why they're invested. But now CREE have to STAND for something.

    Volvo wasn't just a car. It was the SAFE car
    People often don't ask for a tissue. They ask for a Kleenex, no matter what brand it is.
    How about Frank Purdue's branding of chicken, when it was the definition of what commodity is

    Marketing created all of this. Marketing and Technlogy working together, capturing the imagination of the trade and consumers.

    I'm concerned that their senior management doesn't get this, with the installation of sales heads with no consumer experience. I'll read the report. Thanks

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