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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

jpmarketer 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 30, 2015 11:43 PM Member since: Jan 16, 2008
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  • Reply to

    ALU Shanghai Bell

    by osmosisjosh Aug 28, 2015 2:16 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 30, 2015 11:43 PM Flag

    Won't Nokia's controlling interest in ALU-SB facilitate approval of the NOK ALUmerger by the Chinese Authorities? And then, won't Nokia clean out the concubines and properly integrate/rationalize the organizations like NOK and ALU seem to be doing now - so far - to almost unanimous praise? It's not like either of them haven't been to this dance before. They always say second marriages have a higer chance of success.

    If that's the plan, then I remember one of your posts where you compared the China 2015 (cumulative) CAPEX budget to everyone else's. It was like 10-15X the size of the India market as I recall. So while short term margins will erode, is the short term strategic value and medium term financial value of ALU-SB evident?

  • Reply to

    volume

    by emilgrosso Aug 26, 2015 2:35 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 26, 2015 11:46 PM Flag

    Danske Upgrade plus India 4G PR with specifics, like Nokia deal close run rate plus big up market day. Still a medium term downtrend and would like to see it broken.

  • Reply to

    Tim Cook's Comments This Morning Re LTE in China

    by jpmarketer Aug 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 24, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    "I continue to believe China represents an unprecedented opportunity over the long term as LTE penetration is very low and most importantly the growth of the middle class over the next several years will be huge," Cook said in the email.

  • Very under-developed, he said.

  • In the midst of this rout/apparent correction. Euro/USD continues to dampen the downdraft, but it's more than that. Europe down 3% as I write this, but US ADR's flat with EUR/DOl up only about 1%. So NOK showing significant strength today vs the market.

  • jpmarketer by jpmarketer Aug 19, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    If the Fed goes dovish at 2pm which they may, because inflation is non-existent -- then the Euro is going to spike and the US market is going to surge at the same time. That would spell spike for NOK ADR's this afternoon (not on anything fundamental -- just the exchange rate and market updraft.

    If I had some trading money available, I would put a few bucks in now as a trade. But I don't, and probably better off anyway!

  • Reply to

    PROJECTED US TELECOM H2/15 CAPEX

    by jacdurkin Aug 18, 2015 1:07 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 18, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    Sorry -- 14% growth -- not "over 30%" (missed the negative sign on the sprint growth) and it's second half only. But question still stands -- it's a lot better than 3-6% (assuming that first half didn't drag the annual growth rate down to the 3-6%). Is 2015 an anomaly or is this expected to continue?

  • Reply to

    PROJECTED US TELECOM H2/15 CAPEX

    by jacdurkin Aug 18, 2015 1:07 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 18, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    You stated in your response to me a few days ago --

    "Exponential growth in bandwidth demand currently translates to 2% global carrier revenue growth rates and 3%-6% capex growth rates."

    It was tongue in cheek because i had referred once, possibly twice in about six ;months -- to exponential growth of bandwidth -- questioning whether this is an opportunity for Nokia. Your point was that capex growth has slowed significantly in the US -- to 3-6%.

    But the poster Jacdurkin has just demonstrated that among ATT Verizon and Sprint, weighted average year on year growth in 2015 is expected to be over 30%.

    I imagine these guys are the lion's share of the US market? Where is the descrepancy -- is this an anomaly(2015), or some other reason?

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 14, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    The technical nature of the information you have access to -- whether by being an industry insider or having the info fed to you by a boiler room office manager -- is NOT akin to your having any credibility whatsoever - as you coercively suggest. That is a juvenile argument, conceptually -- and exactly what you must put out to preserve your position. You are a fraud because you have an agenda -- a fraud who has exposed him/herself via the 95-98% negative bias of your communications. Your naivete, as a communicator, to not understand this, is laughable.

    Show some balance in your assesssments, something -- or you have no credibility at all. Starting the resopnse with "you don't refute my facts" is the same strategy as "did you beat your wife last night?" You establish a false premise, then defend yourself with it.

    My argument is not that your facts are wrong. My argument is that your commentary surrounding them is blatantly, consistently, uniformly, unabashedly negative.

    The persona you are trying to project would know that. The conceputal gaps in your presentation are a mile wide.

    MY expertise is communication, you ptz, and you wear your strategy on your sleeve. At least get good at what you do.

    Stating facts -- even if they are accurate -- and then coloring them through commentary with a pounding, consistent negative bias day in and day out, are, well, the things of a basher -- whether a short retail investor with time on his hands, or a boiler room dolt.

    One doesn't neet to be able to refute any particular fact to recognize propaganda on its face.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 14, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    You are wrong -- apparently, willfully, opportunistically -- again -- about many of the premises you attempt to set up in your message, above.

    My views are not rosy, or with any hue. No pump no bash on this and other boards for many years, one alias.

    I have not "constantly gushed" about the exponential growth in demand for bandwith. I don't gush about stuff, but ask questions and try to see oppotunities -- and threats -- for this long position I have. I am not only open to negatives about the business, but without them, there is no balance -- only horse maneuere.

    You, on the other hand, introduce negative information in every post you have made for months, almost without exception. So you can frame this however you would like. I only come to these message boards to learn, float a point of view, see what happens. I dunno, the ones of yours I remember recently --

    Nokia being outspent by its major competititors, deadly, according to you --
    like you said above, capex growth slowing, nokia dead, I guess

    Yo ukeep talking software -- and I appreciate the knowledge you demonstrate -- either yourse or fed to you by a researcher -- and don't care which --

    But weren't they really clear in the call that the sofware % of mix was higher this past quarter than expected, and this was a positive thing financially?

    Basically, smosis -- according to you -- everything you write -- every conntation, inflection, argument -- Nokia is a washed up hardware company in a software age, strategically beaten down, multiple not going anywhere, dead in the water, a legacy-laden pig, basically.

    So what are you doing here, buddy, other than being one alias on the team? What's your motivation to be here, daily, endlessly, putting out negative information about Nokia?

    You're classic shill. Just own up to it and save the bits.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 13, 2015 9:48 PM Flag

    This alias of yours' sustained negative messaging -- and the stretches you reach to to get it in print/build context -- are extraordinary. Months now without exception.

  • Reply to

    Question About Nokia from a Non-Engineer

    by jpmarketer Aug 9, 2015 10:56 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 10, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Thanks for your valuable input, clcellve.

    Global mobile data traffic 18 exabytes per month projected in 2018 vs. 1.5 exabytes per month in 2013 (source: Cisco).

    Looks exponential to me - literally. So the question remains, is Nokia a pure play on network convergence? As a layperson, just trying to understand all of the pipes, how they're intersecting going forward and the extent to which Nokia may hold a strategic advantage. Can you help?

  • With the Alu acquisition and other initiatives, isn't Nokia positioning itself as a pure play for network convergence? This, in an age when data transmission is growing, and expected to grown, literally exponentially?

  • Reply to

    COCA COLA

    by strawjack444 Aug 6, 2015 10:42 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 8, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    You've got a marketing person who is spearheading the Kold launch. She is not competent as a strategist. She is a glorified salesperson from pepsi who struck on premise distribution deals, No suprise that she was able to bring in the Snapple Dr Pepper deal to integrate their products. Problem is, her strategic abilities are nill, evidence her complete failure/being run out of town from her short stint at Children's Place after being a salesperson (with a VP title) at pepsi for over 20 years. I think Tauber is her name. They made a huge mistake here with this person leading the Kold product strategy. I challenge the organization to look at any specific product introduction experience this person has, much less success -- rationalization of the product line, research, cannibalization, exploitation of industry trends -- all within the context of a CSD Category that is declining precipitously and is about to fall off a cliff just like the media stocks. People and the world are changing. This $300 thing is going to flop big time and it's going to be the end of the Company as you know it. You guys are in trouble. You'll see.

  • I don't remember her name -- came from Pepsi, failed at a major retailer, jumped into KGM given her history making fountain deals for Pepsi. Only problem is -- anyone who ever worked with her can tell you she doesn't have a strategic bone in her body. She's a glorified salesperson. That's what's happening here on the Cold side, why Coke is, well, going cold.

  • Effective August 10 in Helsinki. US ADR's stay NOK

  • Reply to

    ALU by the numbers

    by osmosisjosh Jul 31, 2015 2:38 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 1, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    It's a second marriage for both. They have a much higher probability of succeeding than first marriages. They seem to have anticipated all of the pitfalls to date -- with virtually every constituency paving the way and an almost unanimous acceptacne. That clearly was not the case with prior integrations on both sides.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 31, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    Massive movement in EUR/DOL this morning (upward) after the worst wage growth report in 30 years. The FED is data-dependent and the labor market is their key driver. So the hike could be delayed, and thus the jump in the Euro versus the dollar.

  • Wonder if there won't be significant follow through volume today as institutional buying picks up. These earnings gave the integrated organization a lot of credibility and the reaction seems unanimously positive on many fronts.

    The fact that the Networks Division led the turnaround from Q1 was very encouraging. HERE's contribution to total company profitablity is irrelevant. The remaining Networks business seems to be VERY healthy.

  • Reply to

    Simple Questions

    by jpmarketer Jul 23, 2015 12:34 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 30, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Hey Josh, what about your thoughts on the software mix hurting Nokia. Were you wrong?

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