Headwind for the US ADR Holders is the degrading of the Euro vs, the Dollar. It's a big deal.
When I began accumulating NOK shares in late July, the Euro/Dollar was $1.295. Today it's 1.22 and change, and forecast to continue dropping as the US tightens and Europe first has to start QE or face probable deflation. That's a drop of about 5.8% on the conversion rate, alone, since late July. In other words, the US ADR's today would be at around $8.56 (vs yesterday's close of $8.09) if the currency effect were not in play (and all else being equal).
Since my time horizon is 36-60 months on this investment, I did a few things to counteract. Sure, with another stock, I could have done these things, not to make up for the drag, but to profit further short term. That's OK. I believe in the Nokia story, in their capabilities (more than anything). They have a culture of innovation in an age where this "organizational personality" is among the greatest assets a company can have, imo.
The two offsets have been a "quantitatively proportionate" position in the Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN, and trading around my core position in NOK, with NOK, ENOC and a couple of other stocks. Together, I have made up 80% of the Euro's slide so far, in a time-effective (and kind of enjoyable) way. If anything, a demonstration of my believe that Nokia's value will continue to rise throughout this year and the next few. And worth doing some work to maintain the position in current dollars.
A current global market leader in development and operation of communication networks over which the amount of data is exploding exponentially.
A global market leader in location technologies that will be at the hear of our everyday life in just a few years, and are already in many cases (ie 60 share of global automotive market).
Intellectual property at the heart of so many modern day innovations it's hard to capture -- communications, materials, other sciences. Short term catalysts for appreciation coming with mid-year arbitration (Samsung), along with market awareness of the Company's diversified technology leadership.
Today's consumer stuff is icing on the cake, and maintenance of consumer brand equity until I can see some type of market leadership that comes from the outsourced model.
I recognize the above is pretty basic, but when you distill out the opportunity in its simples terms, this is what it is to me.
I've read up recently on the graphene revolution. Is it as significant a technological leap as the IC? I see stuff about Nokia's work, the grant, etc -- but don't yet understand Nokia's role, the extent of their plans to begin commercializing it.
Posted: 25 Dec 2014
Just the other day, we passed along a rumor that Nokia would introduce its Nokia N1 Android tablet on January 7th, with a chance that the slate would be launched in China on the same date. Now, Nokia's social media sites have confirmed that the N1 Android tablet will be available in China starting on January 7th. The slate will be one of the first devices to support the USB-C reversible connector.
The Nokia N1 is expected to be priced at the equivalent of $249 USD. It will be equipped with a 7.9-inch Gorilla Glass 3 screen, with resolution of 2048 x 1536. A 64-bit quad-core 2.3GHz Intel Atom Z3580 CPU drives the device, which includes 2GB of RAM and 32GB of native storage. There is no microSD slot on this slate, but there is an 8MP camera on back. A 5MP snapper adorns the front of the tablet, and an ample 5300 mAh battery keeps the power running. Android 5.0 is pre-installed.
Nokia is running a contest in China where winners can score 800 tickets and six VIP passes for the manufacturer's media event on January 7th. 24 will win the Nokia N1 slab.
When the tax selling is done, ENOC usually wafts up in very late December/early January.
We'll see if it does again this year, whether the Company has legs.
3 more thoughts -- #'s 1 and 2 would be negatives, and #3 would be positive:
1. wonder if this is a classic MM move because the retail investor community is poised to capture the upward seasonal trend that starts around now. Only problem is -- the Company, earnings prospect-wise, is not what it was these past two years, and this could be a trap. I'm suspicious when I see all the rags pumping this weekend. Could be an engineered move, with the precipitous ENOC drop we have seen now over and over again. Often -- the day after expiration. And wonder how the expiration played in.
2. What about oil at $55-$60 now?! What is the impact on ENOC's portfolio of business, if these levels persist? Energy efficiency propositions, etc. OR --
3. Can this same question about energy prices be posed a different way -- With economic activity way up now, and cheap energy, will electricity demand increase, significantly increasing the need/attractiveness of demand response?
Other than these, I don't have any questions!
Funny how we retail investors are groping in the dark. For sure, the trading rags have picked this up and are spinning it as a major momentum reversal. I'm not sure -- not yet.
Seasonality-wise, PPS typically heads northward in early January, and through the first quarter. But during the past two years, there were major new initiatives underway (SSAS, Europe, Add-ons) and the earnings hopes did NOT materialize.
We have the SG's intent to Appeal the FERC 745 set aside. One has to recognize the big slide down since May of this year, right when the set aside happened. And now the SG's announcement on December 8 to appeal. But Healy was crystal clear that the impact on Enernoc's business was negligible. So I don't know that now -- an appeal and the PROSPECT of the set aside being overturned, IF the Supreme Court even decides to hear the case, and no material impact on Enernoc's business either way -- whether this is the source of the upturn.
If a short squeeze, why? Just because of the seasonal change in momentum, or that combined with the options expiration? Wonder if there were a boatload of $16 calls, and what the open short interest was, and how it's changed.
I don't know about buyout potential. Multiple is currently very high, with an earnings growth rate that has been stagnant over three years. So I don't know what kind of premium, although I guess that would also be driven by the acquirer's strategic needs, and how valuable the fit was. Also don't know that Management would be selling at current pace if buyout were imminent.
I mentioned in the post where I had gone short (since covered just over $15.00), about the tax loss selling. Typically, it's caused some December volatility with Enoc, driving it down a couple of times before the ascension in the early New Year. Don't know if that's done yet, and with the float still pretty thin (I believe), that could drive things quickly (down).
We'll see, I guess, on all points very soon.
is it possible they could enter into joint marketing/service agreements to leverage respective technology (or other) strengths -- without any asset purchase?
I know it's been brought up in many ways -- including by regular shorts/bashers who use their "ongoing concern" as a reason to put up posts designed to influence sentiment negatively.
But every time Nokia is mentioned, it's within the context of "the failed phone company," or its new app, just delivered, cast (by default, because no competing image) as the Company's "renaissance strategy."
What's becoming tragic is the investing public's almost complete lack of awareness of what the Company is today, and it's prospects, from an earnings and multiple standpoint (ie, the direct drivers of pps).
It's incredible to me that Management has not recognized this, and launched a Corporate advertising campaign to re-cast the company's image and positioning, highlighting and exploiting the opportunities, and Nokia's leadership position in networks, mapping and patents.
There are numerous strategic (not just emotional) reasons to do this, and no downside that I can think of.
Also, ERIC has a campaign going (probably national US) -- weights are weak and copy/creative are not that memorable. They'll get the weak feedback numbers and adjust (if their agency and marketing team are any good), so time is short.
Nokia's existing Brand equity, at least in the US, is both a threat and an opportunity. Let it degrade, and you've got a failed phone company with a flip phone image. Leverage the technology leadership, styling, and other strengths that the Brand was well known for, and evolve these equities into the new product lineup and positioning. This had better happen pretty fast. They're running out of time.
I've been long since late July in a long-term position, and want to see this done. It's a no-brainer.
So what does this mean for demand response, FERC, and Order 745?
The Solicitor General’s intention to appeal before the Supreme Court signals an important step in the Order 745 case. The Solicitor General, as ‘gatekeeper’ to cases involving the United States government, has signaled this is a case it believes to be worthy of review by our nation’s highest court. It’s not a responsibility the Solicitor General takes lightly, and its decision shows why this case is so important.
The next step in this legal process is for the Solicitor General to file its brief by January 15th (stating why the Supreme Court should review the lower court’s decision). From there, all eyes will be on the Supreme Court to see whether or not they decide to take up the case.
In the meantime, EDF will be watching this case closely and keeping our Energy Exchange readers up-to-date on new advancements. Regardless of the outcome, there’s no doubt demand response is an invaluable clean energy resource that must play an important role in our transition to a clean energy future. How the Supreme Court decides to treat this case will have a significant effect on how demand response is valued in our energy markets, and to what extent Americans are able to reap the full benefits of this important resource.
Again, hats off to Motsam for identifying early what happened. I held my short position for a bit, but it was clear that buying momentum was building. The relative strength past few days -- since the announcement of the appeal -- has been pretty extraordinary (even with the market-driven dip).
If Healy's position was sincere-- that 745-driven volume is only a small piece of Enernoc's mix, then there shouldn't be much of a positive impact. But one can't argue with the price action the past few days -- exactly since the news hit -- so it is what it is.
Seems to be building strongly, coming off the monumental slide since May (when 745 was set aside).
Sometimes these PR issues take on a life of their own, seen as positive for the sector and all boats float. I think that's what we may be seeing, but it's reversed direction now, and appears to be upward.
I wonder if the PR value, at least, of the 745 appeal -- won't be like the bombs that were set off in the dam in Force 10 from Navarone. Takes some time to take effect.
I do note Enernoc's PPS slide, magnitude and consistency -- since the lower court set aside this past May. Combine this with the seasonality, and typical uptrend this time of year leading into the Q4 report.
Strange (positive) behavior today, holding a point and a half above yesterday's close, despite the bloodletting in the general market. Makes it seem like there are some legs at this level, but who knows, given the light volumes and probable manipulation. Either way, again, good find yesterday on the Supreme Court appeal.
China Mobile, Ooredoo, Nokia Hit 4.1G With LTE-A
DOHA, Qatar -- At the ITU Telecom World 2014, Nokia Networks, Ooredoo Qatar and China Mobile showcased a record-breaking speed of 4.1 Gbps over TDD-FDD LTE. Supported by the Global TD-LTE Initiative, the speed was achieved by combining TDD- and FDD-LTE spectrums and aggregating 10 carriers with 200 MHz bandwidth.
At this speed, operators can match and exceed the expectations of even the most demanding mobile users who would be able to, for example, download a full-length 5 GB high-definition (HD) movie in just 11 seconds and simultaneously upload a 5-minute 30 MB video clip from a concert in less than a second.
The record was achieved using:
• Nokia Networks’ commercial Single RAN Advanced hardware
• including the Flexi Multiradio 10 Base Station for high-capacity throughput
• Software to aggregate carriers on both TDD- and FDD-LTE spectrums
• LTE-Advanced Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) technology
Waleed Al Sayed, Chief Operating Officer, Ooredoo Qatar, said: “We are building the biggest, fastest network in Qatar, so that customers across the country can access next-generation wireless data services. We are very proud that the first-ever ITU Telecom World to be held in Qatar should showcase this record-breaking success with the support of Ooredoo. By deploying our advanced LTE network in Qatar, we are truly laying the foundation for the future.”
Madam Huang Yuhong, Deputy General Manager of China Mobile Research Institute and Secretary General of Global TD-LTE Initiative (GTI) said: “This groundbreaking throughput is a milestone that boosts our efforts as we drive the commercialization and globalization of TD-LTE and TDD-FDD converged technology across the globe. In collaboration with Nokia Networks, our long-standing and trusted partner, we continue to exploit...
Looks like the PR value trumps. Great find, Motsam. I just covered at 15.04 -- virtually breakeven, but the buy momentum appears to be building. We'll see if it's a trap. wouldn't be the first --
Hello Motsam --
While I took some off Friday afternoon, I've still got this short position on as a short term trade. So I'll take the other side.
- Appeal was a virtual certainty, so I don't know how big the news is, or if it's even significant news.
- Enernoc revenue impacted by 745 amounts to less than 2% of its mix. Healy commented on the fact that 745's being quashed did not materially impact Enernoc, so I would imagine that the planned appeal, now going forward, would not have much impact either.
"Energy payments that are the subject of Order 745 have not been a material component of EnerNOC's revenues. Of EnerNOC's approximately $1 billion of revenue over the last three years, these payments have represented approximately 2% of those revenues. EnerNOC's preliminary estimate of the impact of Friday's decision suggests that EnerNOC and its customers could be required to refund in a future period as little as $0 and as much as $20 million if Friday's decision on Order 745 survives any continued appeals process. Order 745 does not pertain to capacity payments which the Company is contractually due or has previously earned."
- I'm also virtually certain that the consensus 70 cents EPS for FY 2015 assumes an appeal, for what it's worth to Enernoc.
Whether or not 745's being put aside is successfully appealed, I'm questioning ENOC's ability to move past the 70 cents annual EPS at a growth rate that will again justify the current multiple. Until then, until this is demonstrated - (i.e. how initiatives like Europe, Japan and the current acquisition will be accretive, especially given the falling energy prices) - I don't see how the share price can justifiably, significantly increase.
2015 consensus revenue growth is only 11%. I believe this simple fact may be validating the growing list of negative concerns.
Other than that, everything is OK.
Revenue grew 38% in 2013, is projected to grow 22% in 2014, and forecast to grow only 11% in 2015. This slowdown is a significant concern in the absolute, and for the multiple. 40X is not consistent with 11% revenue growth.
Earnings were .76 in 2013, but dropped to .37, this year, forecast to rise again to .70 in 2015. So 2015 revenue growth rate has declined to 11% year on year, and 2015 earnings will be lower than 2013 earnings.
In short, the business will generate more earnings this year, but growth is slowing to nothing. All of these numbers, I believe, were before the recent dilution, and before the steep drop-off in energy prices.
I look to Europe and don't see the answer, nor do I in Japan. My last understanding of the regulation changes were that they were neutral to negative for Enernoc. I can't get excited about an 11% growth rate and the tsunami of falling energy prices, and I can't believe that the year end spike we normally see leading into first quarter is warranted -- from PEG, fundamentals or business standpoints.
I guess a lot of this will be clarified in the 10K early next year, and I look forward to it.