I've been both short and long with CREE as trades over the past two months or so. I've done a lot of research on the Company and bought/use their products.
It's true they're aggressive marketers. But where they are most aggressive as marketers is not in gaining shelf space, or displays, or feature ads -- it's in their product development.
CREE is clearly the technology leader, and their product quality is perceived both by the industry and the Trade and Consumers as top notch.
So for a poster to come on this board and spew complete hogwash like this is ridiculous. About poor quality, poor technology, etc -- complete hogwash.
I still think the commoditization is going to get the Company's goat. I don't think they can grow as ultra fast as was thought when the PPS was in the 70's. But that doesn't mean this isn't a great company, great products, of the highest quality and technology standards. They are CREATING the standards, much less following them.
I may be short tomorrow for trading reasons (or long) - but this Canyon157ryder poster should be discredited to all who follow this board.
The behemoth loser which dragged down Microsoft is off the Nokia P&L? Aren't the 3 remaining business pretty intense, with great opportunity (network infrastructure, Location and IP)?
New Nokia, new multiple? If EPS is in line, could be a gap up to reflect the shedding of the large, shrinking, unprofitable Handset Division?
Commoditization. Porter said there are only two ways to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage. Low cost producer or legitimate product differentiation.
One could say that Cree is innovating, and is differentiated in their technology development.
Problems with this are:
1. How sustainable is the technical/innovation edge, and
2. Can Cree price up as a result of this differentiation?
That was another key part of Porter's thesis -- Strategically, one must be able to leverage differentiation by pricing up, in order to achieve superior profits and win long-term.
From what I see of this category, the vicious offshore competition lies in one corner of the quadrant, with deep-pocketed/technically advanced competitors in the other corner.
No one's pricing up for squat, as long as the vicious offshore component remains. And as the technology develops and adoption increases, technology differentiation will flatten, making the problem even worse.
People are starting to see this dynamic, no matter how they express it. That's why the gap down, and it's not over IMO.
You know, I don't understand why more people aren't comfortable debating the legitimate strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities for a given company - regardless of their short term trading position.
I truly don't think these message boards have an impact on the stock price. Especially not given the average daily volume for a stock like CREE.
aaronedward, YOU ASKED. Agree with me or not, the following was my motivation for the short.
YOU ASKED. I shorted CREE at average $50.55 because:
Indices were at historic highs and bumping along tops that were created by the lower boundaries of their long-term channels. We know what happened two days subsequent (Mon and Tue) -- the market breakdown. I was early.
VIX was low and complacency seemed high given the geopolitical and other events (we see where VIX went early this week)
Summer doldrums - July - combined with all the above. Yikes.
Within a market that felt afraid and lumbering to me (possibly dropping tide) CREE had serious issues raised in the last report that cut at the essence of the Company's multiple and share price. They're just not addressed in my view. There may be an opportunity to profit from this deviation between the real risk to CREE, short term/upcoming report -- and this flawed belief system that's hung over on the excitement generated by this story stock before the commoditization started.
CREE's shelf space, presence and marketing/merchandising support in HD is not indicative to me of a dominant Brand, across numerous metrics.
CREE sales head replacements - one guy has no consumer, and the other guy has no sales experience. Removals I believe (as is most often the case) were the result of Strat Plan not being achieved. I believe he IBD Article was a major exposure/fiasco of the Company's defensive stance on this.
All of this was reinforced by the press I was reading, stating that while the Company's long term prospects are bright, short term margin pressures are going to make for a rocky time. This, right before the report where trend was broken in the last report. I was banking on people starting to become aware of this, and then the second leg down when the report comes out. I believe there is more than a 50% chance of this.
...and you know in advance. CNBC reporting that Al Quaida-backed rebels have taken Mosul and are advancing toward Baghdad. Turkey is calling for an emergency NATO meeting.
On top of this, the displacement in the GOP last night was completely unexpected and seismic. The Street is just getting a handle on it this afternoon. The Tea Party is re-energized in a way that could never have been anticipated, and this causes a complete change of calculus, in terms of Gov's role as a market force moving toward elections.
This realization alone is going to tank the broad market next few days, and CREE is going with it, to a greater degree.
That's my call, we'll see. Hope to be wrong in terms of the geopolitical events and their human consequences.
Was hedged with a long trade in a different stock with a similar beta. That's the only way I'll do it now, protects against market moves like this one.
Underwater now on that other trade, (not nearly as much as the gain on the ENOC short) and banking on this dip not turning into a swoon, or worse, a swan. I'm not taking any further short positions on this downdraft, certainly not with ENOC.
A recovery now, or soon, Monday or Tuesday (given the weekend uncertainty about Ukraine) would be very sweet.
I stand by what I said about the PPS getting ahead of itself when it was $23.50. Earnings will reveal if there is any new guidance, but the existing guidance is pretty vanilla. All of the new stuff is exciting, but needs time to contribute to earnings growth, even though the strategic setup looks vey cool.
Motsam, Samgean, Lesserfool, Stacker, others -- What the hey?
I've been very busy on a project since earnings -- have not read the report, just the PR's. What's going on -- is there anything behind the scenes, or is this just mm manipulation/small cap sell-off and ENOC's getting dragged down? Thought 24 was overblown, but didn't expect to see 18 something, unless things have fundamentally changed? No position now, but wont' jump in until studying up.
I would have thought today's headline on Obama administration looking for 25% more efficiency by _____ would have grid implications/be good for Enernoc in terms of energy savings, efficiency and their SaaS offering.
I don't think there's any question that LED adoption will be sweeping. Its' about CREE's ability to maintain pricing, and resulting margins, at a level that fuels the earnings growth needed to support today's multiple.
That's becoming a hard argument to make, and with the market teetering at all time high's, a big CREE whoosh down is probable, imo, before a rebuild of the pps toward earnings.
Relative price performance past few days dismal, it's happening.
Could see 50 cents to a dollar swing up with volatility, but short term trend is down, so buy here at your own peril.
I see 3 scenarios. They're kind of generic, but flavored by ENOC's unique history of reaction to its earnings:
1. Worst Case - assigned probability 15% - Major regulatory/PJM issue, and/or significant earnings or guidance miss. PPS plummets depending on severity.
2. Best Case - assigned probability 25% - Saas vision articulated and integrated into guidance that demonstrates a revenue stream and contribution to earnings. New acquisition(s) have strategic (and/or accretive) value not previously understood. Europe, Japan, Australasia ahead of schedule with contribution to earnings coming on line sooner than expected. PPS spikes, although some already happened in the recent anticipatory run-up.
3. Mid-Range Case - assigned probability 60% - This is the one I'm worried about (vis a vis the current pps) -- Earnings beat, nothing extraordinary, but a beat. Free cash flow continues to grow. The 3-year, +15% top and bottom line guidance provided in the last report is maintained. Everything is status quo, with maybe some offsetting negative and positive news items. Possibly exciting potential about the most recent acquisitions focused on, and the SaaS vision flushed out further, but its contribution not quantified. PPS gaps down, because the current $24.00 is 32X current year GAAP earnings of $0.75 (consensus-mid-point).
Would 32X be a crime? Not if we had a vision that was further down the road to reality.
In my view, if this thing were to achieve the Global and Energy Intelligence vision laid out publicy so far, the things the Company is doing - what is happening now - would be EXACTLY what WOULD be happening. We're heading toward something big.
That's so exciting, but it's always been the story of Enernoc. There is no proof yet that this story stock can make the big numbers, 15% growth won't do it, 3 years is an eternity, but GO ENOC because what they're doing, I think, is amazing.
How incredibly shocking. They were calling for $3 if I remember right a quarter or two ago.
Wonder why they've always had a bug up their --- about ENOC
Magic8ball, As a Management/Marketing guy who grew up professionally in Sales, I appreciate your insight. It comes from someone who gets it, the culture of leadership in a healthy sales organization.
CREE is a story stock just like ENOC. They both have terrific products/services. But the emotional story (pumped weekly and monthly by the option sellers and others) fades when the multiple is exposed as non-sustainable. This earnings report was an inflection point, with management all but acknowledging this, that going forward EPS growth is moderating.
I don't know if the right valuation is 35, 45, 55 or what. But the trend, I can't see as up significantly, unless they show how their current and proposed product lineup (both sides of the business) gets them there.
I love their stuff, with my desk lit by the 75W replacement right now. But EPS growth-wise, the bloom is off the rose.
I have to admit this is one of the more awesome posts I've seen.
Starting a rumor that something is up because there is no rumor.
It's like the Seinfeld show about a show about nothing.
I agree with you. Philips has an overwhelming presence in terms of number of SKU's and amount of product on shelf. But their packaging, imo is far inferior to CREE's, the assortment is a mess (and with that number of boxes, everything out of order), whereas CREE's shelf is linear, its 12 SKU's, 2 color temp choices in each wattage, simple. I agree. In the Trade, we call it product rationalization. Cree's is elegant, as is their packaging and design. I don't like the margin mix shift and hope Silly Sally will soon come back to tell his thoughts on the Strategic Plan for LED, how it will close the margin gap being created by Lighting to continue growing earnings consistent with today's multiple. But I've always said CREE's packaging and design are really top notch, I believe very tasteful and communicative.
Thank you Raybans. I agree with you on CREE's segmentation and branding efforts. That's exactly what I was talking about.
Another opportunity is to compete in some of the commoditized segments, but to create this "halo effect" through their superior technology development. If they can charge a point or two more than everyone else because the CREE brand allows them to -- this is another sustainable strategy. I figure it's part of the plan, looking at their recent television campaign.
All of this would make for a somewhat smaller, yet profitable and growing company. I believe that's where they net out (if not acquired), but it's not the stuff of the multiples we've seen for CREE in the past -- that's the issue, and why down here in high 40's seems more comfortable than at higher levels, at least given their guidance in the last report.
JimbobobSal, or whatever you call yourself,
You can discuss it with your blow-up doll if you want to. It was a good call, it's happening, and that's it. Nothing you say can change that. Mosul is burning, oil is rising, air strikes are being desperately requested and, well, it is what it is.
I've been on the ENOC board with the same alias -- JPmarketer, for about, I dunno, like 7 years. On Yahoo with this alias for about ten years, never another.
You, on the other hand, appear to be some type of chatboard manipulator/writer. I don't understand your business, but I know filth when I see it.
And in terms of your calls on both ENOC and CREE, they have been HORRIBLE.
You are drenched in flop sweat. I'm sorry.
I'm not up on the Acuity News, the implicatins for CREE and why.
I remain short. Position
for an average cost of 50.55.
The trade is under water and I sold short more shares than I wanted to get this average cost -- given the big run-up this morning. It was actually pretty sloppy and that's where I'm at. I believe there is significant downside risk because this stock is highly manipulated (my belief) and because the market, despite this surge today, is due for a pullback. It didn't happen when said last week, although I believe that was a good bet, a reasonable bet given the circumstances.
So here's an example of a trade of mine that's not doing so well at this moment. I'm not sure anyone else does this. There's an important reason I don't care. I'm not trying to influence sentiment, like the old, angry white man who populates this board for his final hurrah, Naples, NY, you got the picture. Take a guy who started in a member firm back in say, 71, and now is old (with apparent reproductive issues - yuk) who spends his time here - after he sets up his options -- spends his time here to influence sentiment, intimidate posters who are contrary to his position, etc.
So he'll take this post and ridicule it - see, "you are a loser," he'll say. Well, I've been doing this for going on eleven years. As a consultant now who works from home, it's been a blast and I've made good money. Lost some early on, learned. It's true, day trading is treacherous and almost impossible to make money from. But I can babysit my trades, and really enjoy the dialogue with legit posters, both pro and con versus my position.
I have some, but not much room left on this trade. It may go bad, or not. I'll hang on for a while if we get a downdraft. Also, gotta say - the most amazing thing about CREE lights is their design. I still think the multiple is loopy, but the products are gorgeous and ingeniously designed.