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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

jpmarketer 129 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Jan 16, 2008
  • Reply to

    SHARE PRICE DECLINE

    by thekadog May 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer May 22, 2014 12:23 AM Flag

    You're all a bucket of cheer. I took a position (two buys) average cost 18.58 on Tuesday.

    The price just plummeted around 23%. Hopefully all of your gloom is covered, and the shorts will do the same soon, en masse.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer May 16, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Don't know but I skidoodled at 19.26. It's at 1940 something now. It was only 300 shares and I took my $155 after trading fees and felt very lucky. I have no idea where it goes from here, whether the decline is market-driven, Market Maker-driven, ENOC driven, no clue. Have to read the report, listen to the call, take it all in again and get a feel. Don't know when PJM is but will look.

  • Despite what I said below. Impulse buy. Usually don't do well on those!!!! We'll see.
    But if nothing is wrong, how much more downside is there?

  • Motsam, Samgean, Lesserfool, Stacker, others -- What the hey?

    I've been very busy on a project since earnings -- have not read the report, just the PR's. What's going on -- is there anything behind the scenes, or is this just mm manipulation/small cap sell-off and ENOC's getting dragged down? Thought 24 was overblown, but didn't expect to see 18 something, unless things have fundamentally changed? No position now, but wont' jump in until studying up.

    I would have thought today's headline on Obama administration looking for 25% more efficiency by _____ would have grid implications/be good for Enernoc in terms of energy savings, efficiency and their SaaS offering.

  • Reply to

    Philips LED Advertising Spend

    by jpmarketer May 4, 2014 7:25 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer May 6, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Hello Creamer,

    I don't want to get involved in the backs and forth. I trade short term -- sometimes long, sometimes short, and I don't pump or bash. Your comment about the "instances" is something in my wheelhouse.

    The facts you presented are one piece of the story -- But there are many more measures of both "presence" as you put it, and performance for a brand in a retail store. So here are some of my thoughts/questions --

    More instances on the web site -- does this mean more SKU's stocked for Philips? if yes, is their product line rationalized? What percentage of total sales volume does each Philips SKU account for? Expressed in both volume and dollars. NOW, we start to get a feel for their "presence" in-store. We do the same thing for CREE, compare, and it's very telling.

    But there's so much more.

    For both Brands -- what is the total amount of shelf space, how many facings? How often is each brand "featured," in HD's advertising, and then displayed (ie an endcap display) to execute against the feature ad (regardless of the medium -- circular, hard copy, online, facebook, TV, doesn't matter).

    How often is each brand price promoted, and what does the ins-store merchandising look like.

    There are many, many mre things that determine a Brand's presence in a retailer. I've centered in on the in-store piece. Multiply that by 3 for online considerations.

    And BY THE WAY, WHAT IS GOING ON PAST TEN MINUTES -- VOLUME ALREADY AT DAILY AVERAGE AND PPS UP 3% WHILE naz DOWN -.25%. THAT HAD THE FLAVOR OF A SHORT SQUEEZE JUST NOW, SO THERE'S NEWS IN THE PIPELINE, OR SOME OTHER CATALYST OUT THERE. And we just bumped along a 45+ bottom for a week.

  • It's very heavy right now, at least in the New York Market, but probably national. It is raising awareness of the whole LED segment in addition to awareness of/credibility for the Philips Brand.

    I am just starting to look at CREE and I don't yet understand each company's competitive position, share, pricing, etc.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Earnings

    by jpmarketer May 3, 2014 8:51 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer May 4, 2014 12:02 AM Flag

    Thank you Motsam,

    I would like to see Neil Moses articulate the basis, size, build -- anything about the SaaS revenue and/or earnings stream, including commentary on cannibalization of the current business.

    Management invested a lot - for a long time - in branding Enernoc as a DR company. You can't pivot from this core identity and not re-make the case for SaaS with at least the same vigor. Not sure what Marketing at Enernoc looks like, but there is an important communication need (and opportunity)here that to me, at least, is falling flat.

    In this call, they don't have to show us the money yet. Just show us the QUANTIFIED bridge to the money. Sell us a bridge, at least. If not, and the story is 15% growth and a vision, then 24 won't hold.

    If they do, then you'll see $30.00, multiple be dammed, I agree.

  • jpmarketer by jpmarketer May 3, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    I see 3 scenarios. They're kind of generic, but flavored by ENOC's unique history of reaction to its earnings:

    1. Worst Case - assigned probability 15% - Major regulatory/PJM issue, and/or significant earnings or guidance miss. PPS plummets depending on severity.

    2. Best Case - assigned probability 25% - Saas vision articulated and integrated into guidance that demonstrates a revenue stream and contribution to earnings. New acquisition(s) have strategic (and/or accretive) value not previously understood. Europe, Japan, Australasia ahead of schedule with contribution to earnings coming on line sooner than expected. PPS spikes, although some already happened in the recent anticipatory run-up.

    3. Mid-Range Case - assigned probability 60% - This is the one I'm worried about (vis a vis the current pps) -- Earnings beat, nothing extraordinary, but a beat. Free cash flow continues to grow. The 3-year, +15% top and bottom line guidance provided in the last report is maintained. Everything is status quo, with maybe some offsetting negative and positive news items. Possibly exciting potential about the most recent acquisitions focused on, and the SaaS vision flushed out further, but its contribution not quantified. PPS gaps down, because the current $24.00 is 32X current year GAAP earnings of $0.75 (consensus-mid-point).

    Would 32X be a crime? Not if we had a vision that was further down the road to reality.

    In my view, if this thing were to achieve the Global and Energy Intelligence vision laid out publicy so far, the things the Company is doing - what is happening now - would be EXACTLY what WOULD be happening. We're heading toward something big.

    That's so exciting, but it's always been the story of Enernoc. There is no proof yet that this story stock can make the big numbers, 15% growth won't do it, 3 years is an eternity, but GO ENOC because what they're doing, I think, is amazing.

  • On Cree's 5-day chart right here on Yahoo - what started around mid-day.

IBM
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