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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

jpmarketer 156 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 20, 2014 11:24 AM Member since: Jan 16, 2008
  • Reply to

    Earnings - Quick Analysis

    by jpmarketer Aug 7, 2014 4:19 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 9, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Great take. May have more thoughs after I listen to/read call. Wondering if anyone has, and if any notable new news, positive or negative --

  • GAAP Earnings this quarter -.96 vs. -1.24 analyst consensus, good
    GAAP Earnings next quarter 3.27 - 3.33 vs. 3.50, bad. Revenue also on target, possibly light at 313-323, vs estimate of 318.04.

    Guidance for full year earnings is .47-.55 which is higher than the .46 consensus, good.

    Sales volume guidance for full year is 450-465 vs. estimate of 457.75, eh.

    There are no notable updates on international (no mention I saw in a quick scan), and very milktoast commentary in initial PR. No disasters, relatively on target, but whole thing seems blah, milktoast. No disasters but no catalysts, is initial impression.

  • Since I sold my position, there is an EXCELLENT chance that ENOC will rocket upon earnings!

  • It's been relatively very quiet in this period leading to earnings. I'm continuing to see the insider selling, even down at these prices, and don't know if it's Management deservedly converting some stock into cash, or an exodus because they know this thing has run its course.

    I'm watching trends in distributed energy, and the natural efficiencies being gained through technology.

    You know, here in NY, one may remember the power lines and transformers were exploding during the Summer a few years ago. Not a peep now, and I don't know if it's because of infrastructure improvements, or because peak demand has come down with everything from appliances to lighting (ie LED) being MUCH more efficient. LED lighting alone -- 75% average drop LED vs, incandescent, or something like that?

    Why aren't we hearing anything about Europe, or Japan. I pointed out there was a lot of competition in Japan.

    Enernoc has always had an expensive organization. It was needed to develop this business. But it also makes the business very sensitive to sales volume and/or margin shortfalls, with a big potential impact on earnings and PPS.

    Then there is all the FERC stuff.

    For these reasons, I've liquidated my position accumulated over the past weeks. I'm not going to be holding going into earnings, and for those who are, I wish you well.

    I've followed this stock for a long time. They've always had headwinds, but I wonder now if the world is changing too fast for them, if the peak demand addressed by Demand Respose is quickly becoming a 20th century phenomenon, and whether distributed energy will change the whole landscape.

    Or, none of this applies and they're going to have blowout earnings. No crystal ball, but it feels different this time. Like grand expectations unrealized.

  • Reply to

    Nokia Peg

    by swoope2001 Aug 1, 2014 12:56 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 2, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Leg of pirate

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 2, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    I agree. The market IS rigged. But in this case, when a classy company like this has legitimate marketplace wins, I believe they have an obligation to let the investors, vendors and other constituencies know. After all, the valuation of the company, reflected by the share price, is driven by these events, and I believe Management has the responsibility to update on matters that affect valuation.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 1, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    Anyone notice "The Street" article on Yahoo?

    How Will Nokia (NOK) Stock Respond To Panasonic (PCRFY) Network Business Agreement?
    BY Tedd Cohen

    Find out if (NOK) is in Cramer's Portfolio.

    "NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Nokia (NOK_) are down -1.97% to $7.98 after the company agreed to buy part of Panasonic's (PCRFY_) telecoms network business to increase its operations in Japan, Reuters reports."

    This is ridiculous. The language clearly implies that the 1.97% PPS decline yesterday was caused by the Panasonic purchase. The market crashed yesterday.

    someone mentioned all of the 8.50 and 9.00 August calls. One has to wonder to what extent the Cramer machine is tied to the Option sellers whose motivation is to see those calls expire worthless. No conspiracy nut here, but this article is simply false and misleading. So much so that it appears intentional.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Aug 1, 2014 5:56 AM Flag

    Ditto on all aspects of bill's post. Nice find by totenham and I don't understand why NOK's PR machine isn't being proactive here.

  • This is a very healthy company and networking is going to buck the downtrend in Europe. Have to take a breath and buy when everyone else is running for the hills - for a good company, of course. A good bet on this one, I like the company and the prospects for the stock. Could get ugly in the interim.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 29, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Still the queen of empty, meaningless, wit-intended one liners that add no value and demonstrate your utter stupidity? Must be any day. Comments on Silly Sally stand. Exposed chatboard manipulator who purports to have inside info and tries to get others to trade on the advice. What part of that don't you understand?

  • Wasn't it $300 million (about 6.25 million shares, or about 5% of the outstanding) over the course of this year?

    The share price is around 48 today. A 5% increase, if all of the buyback were to be done at once, now -- would be just a bit over $50.

    Where does the $56 after earnings come from (a 17% increase), based on the buyback boosting the share price?

    Maybe the resident professor/troll Faux Mayor of the Cree Board would like to take a stab at this question. He won't find THIS one in the Economist, nor will the gal pal be sending him his note.

    Earnings is coming and there is no more hiding from the commoditization that has gripped this industry. It reared its ugly head in the last report, and without extreme sales leverage to pump earnings in the declining margin environment, the gap down this report is going to cause a big wooshing sound.

    Then, the king of comb-over, purveyor of gal pal notes, faux mayor/troll, forgetful, limp, Economist-reader-wannabee man behind the green curtain may pick up the stakes and go populate another board where he can begin a new life pumping a whole new stock. Like he did RVLT, which he pumped mercilessly early this year, but then claimed to me that he had no position in, and was only here pumping because he's a good Samaritan......

    Yup, have THIS guy explain why the buyback = salvation, or maybe he'll tell you that with the large cash position (which this eats up about 25% of), it was necessary to put a bottom on the stock while margins are in free-fall. That's what the street said last report, anyway.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 27, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    We may be market-driven tomorrow. Tide appears to be pretty low in Europe right now driven by geopolitical -

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 27, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    I think the HERE/Red bull PR got lost during the earnings surprise - didn't see any mention of it here? May have missed the post.

  • The equity in the Brand is incredible.

    Evolution of markets and product lines is apparently in the Company's DNA.

    I just read about the above-mentioned alliance and recognize some very cool vision.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 27, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    I'm a consumer marketer by training. It's part of the reason I bought before earnings. The equity in the Nokia Brand is an asset that in my opinion, is not being valued properly.

  • Reply to

    Cree Quarter..

    by army19801961 Jul 19, 2014 9:15 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 26, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    One more thought -- Army, his/her message that I responded to, included,

    "I expect an easy beat this quarter due to the buyback.. that being said I see 56.00 after earnings.

    Maybe he, and you and magic8ball are referring to the reduction of shares, with earnings held constant, all else equal, increases the EPS, and then, via the multiple, PPS? Well yes, of course, but 56 is a 17% or so increase versus the current pps, and there is NOTHING like 17% of the stock being bought back this quarter. Wasn't it like a few points of the float, as I remember, spread over the whole year?

  • Reply to

    Cree Quarter..

    by army19801961 Jul 19, 2014 9:15 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 26, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Hello Kruporama,

    Good Evening Kruporama,

    Your assessment of my credibility notwithstanding -- simply as an accounting matter, doesn't a buyback impact the balance sheet, whereas earnings are dictated by the income statement?

    Specifically, doesn't a buyback reduce the outstanding shares, which (all things considered equal, and per the laws of supply and demand) would raise the PPS by a percentage corresponding to the percentage of the outstanding that was removed?

    This impacts PPS (Price per share), not EPS (Earnings per share). EPS is influenced by all factors on the Income Statement, beginning with revenue on the topline, gross profit which yields gross margin, and then operating expenses, interest, depreciation (non-cash expense) and finally taxes.

    So tell me please, where does the buyback come into an EPS increase. Don't you mean PPS, the share price, which is completely different from earnings (EPS)?

    Thanks, and if I just don't see it, if my accounting is wrong here, I'll learn something and stand corrected. No real loss of credibility there, unless one egotistically depends on always being right!

    Thanks for you input, and I'll await your answer.

  • I ask because I just saw one of the articles referencing China's imminent declaration of Qualcomm as a Monopoly. I also read this, regarding Nokia:

    "Suri, who has worked at Nokia since 1995, has been largely credited with a turnaround of the company as the former head of the Nokia Solutions and Networks unit. He reiterated that the revenue of the Networks unit was expected to grow during the second-half of the year.

    Chief Financial Officer Timo Ihamuotila said in an interview with Finnish national broadcaster YLE that the networks unit — a major provider of the next generation 4G wireless networks — has done particularly well in boosting market share in China, Japan, South Korea and the United States.

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 24, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    We got our answer early this morning, and as a recent buyer on this anticipation, wowsa.

  • Reply to

    I'm buying Breakfast this morning!

    by bananas500 Jul 24, 2014 8:22 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 24, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Kate Upton

IBM
190.41-0.82(-0.43%)Aug 22 4:01 PMEDT

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