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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

jpmarketer 156 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Jan 16, 2008
  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 24, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    We got our answer early this morning, and as a recent buyer on this anticipation, wowsa.

  • Reply to

    I'm buying Breakfast this morning!

    by bananas500 Jul 24, 2014 8:22 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 24, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Kate Upton

  • Earnings release about 4 hours away.

    Anyone know where is the first place to see the release and Helsinki stock price impact?

    Their Investor's page on the Nokia company website (not the Microsoft Nokia site)!! It's got the stock price New York and Helsinki.

    also -- the NasdaqOMX. If you put after that the d^tcm, you get there. Search on Nokia and the quote page comes up. Assume it goes real time (or at least 20 min delayed) when their market opens. Earnings should be at around 8am their time, 1am Eastern Daylight Time.

  • The behemoth loser which dragged down Microsoft is off the Nokia P&L? Aren't the 3 remaining business pretty intense, with great opportunity (network infrastructure, Location and IP)?

    New Nokia, new multiple? If EPS is in line, could be a gap up to reflect the shedding of the large, shrinking, unprofitable Handset Division?

  • Reply to

    Cree Quarter..

    by army19801961 Jul 19, 2014 9:15 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 23, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    army, what kind of beat do you mean? Top line? Bottom line? How would the buyback impact this?

  • Reply to

    Upgrade!

    by ddsystems Jul 17, 2014 2:14 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 22, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    I stand corrected. Not a trader by profession and not familiar with open interest at any given time. More a student of the business. I just watched CREE swing more than once during expiration. Wong assumption that ENOC would be impacted similarly during weekly expiration. I guess it sank on its own, but seems to have firmed up.

    I read a few days ago about economic versus capacity DR, how the order related to 745 impacts economic DR, and that Healy is quoted as saying this is only 2% of Enernoc's revenue. That was good. If true, one headache out of the way?

  • Reply to

    Upgrade!

    by ddsystems Jul 17, 2014 2:14 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 18, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Surprised that with the upgrade, ENOC is back down again today. I'll bet it's got more to do with weekly expirations than fundamentals or outlook, which could bode well for later today and next week.

  • Reply to

    Nokia is 7.50 (after hrs) in Marketwatch

    by newnokia78 Jul 17, 2014 11:29 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 18, 2014 5:16 AM Flag

    Up on Layoffs

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 17, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Thanks for today's mention, Sal.

    I wonder if your thoughts about GE also came in a note from your old friend?

    Your ridiculous explanations for attempting to sway sentiment here by implying you have inside information will never live you down.

  • Reply to

    Nibbled again 16.9701

    by jpmarketer Jul 15, 2014 10:29 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 15, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    if earnings and guidance are status quo, we may likely see a nice pop back to previous levels, or close to them (low 20's).. This is what I'm banking on. Have to study up/stay vigilant in meantime, however, given the auction, decision, and no real news to date on international, acquisitions etc.

    ENOC also has a habit of going heavy up PR before earnings, which should start soon. We'll see.

  • jpmarketer by jpmarketer Jul 15, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Too good to pass up with normal doldrums this time summer/between earnings.

    Sincerely hope nothing wrong post 745 decision. Want to see progress international (Germany/Japan), and Entelios acquisition -- Demand response becoming more "distributed." Don't know if this acquisition was more offensive or defensive. Lot to be seen in upcoming report.

  • Glad we were able to bury the hatchet.

    I wish you the best with the golf course. I know Yahoo won't allow anyone to post a link.

    But you should be proud, so I hope you don't mind my suggesting that your fellow posters can see the fruits of your labor by googling the Purple Roofs Golf Course in Phoenix.

    And in recognition of Seinfeld's 25th, not that there's anything wrong with that!

    Best,
    JPmarketer

  • "Intense pricing competition is causing the LED industry to become gradually a lower margin commodity business, according to The Wall Street Journal. LED manufacturers have increasingly been turning towards integrated systems and smart lighting to create higher profit margins."

    Silly Sally has driven the point home again and again that CREE's future is in smart/connected lighting in the residential, commercial, industrial markets.

    Does anyone have a feel for CREE's current "smart lighting" share of the market today? Not sure if that means the fixtures themselves, or the chips, whether installed in CREE fixtures or sold to other manufacturers --

    Also, when it comes to smart fixtures -- does CREE have a competitive advantage today - a real one that make them different and better, such that they can gain more market share? If yes, what is it?

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 12, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    A Home Controls technology partner acquisition with the Company's strong cash position would be boffo.

    With consumer LED adoption at an inflection point, the market will fill/window will close quickly. It's very weird, this consumer product that has a lifecyle 2-3X longer than a typical capital good.

    I put out there for consideration. Is CREE's stated objective to get to cost parity at retail enough, fast enough to get the market share needed to get the sales volumes and earnings growth we all agree are required to boost the share price?

    The Home Control Market, for instance, is developing so quickly, and has such major players (ie Apple) - Doesn't CREE need to stake out an exclusive technology position organically or through acquisition?

    And do they currently have such a sustainable competitive position (technology-wise) with their commercial/industrial smart lighting fixtures?

  • Appeared in Greentech Media.

    Just over a year ago, the emergence of a sub-$10 light-emitting diode (LED) bulb was big news for the lighting industry. The same pricing trends are headed for smart bulbs too.

    Now, for just a few dollars more, consumers can buy a GE LED light bulb for their homes that can be controlled from a smartphone. General Electric’s latest LED bulb, Link, went on sale this week at Home Depot and will hit stores in the fall.....

    ...Some of GE’s lighting competitors, including Osram Sylvania and Philips, have already announced that they will have MFi-certified products to integrate with Apple’s HomeKit. Osram Sylvania’s iQ indoor LED floodlights are also available on Comcast’s Xfinity Home platform.

    As lighting manufacturers compete for market share in the budding LED sector, they are looking to find the right technology partners to get a competitive advantage. The home controls market is very young, so lighting companies will have to be flexible and focused in their strategy. Once consumers purchase long-lasting LEDs, it will likely be many years before they make the switch again.....

    Where is CREE

  • Here is a post from Silly Sally 2938 on March 5, 2014, pumping RVLT. He purports to have inside information that the stock price will rise. At the time of the post, RVLT was in the low 3's, and with days, this poster Sal and his buddies pumped it to 4. It has slowly slid back now to the low/mid 2's.

    Those are just facts. Look at this post, go back and see it before Sal erases it (will be gone within minutes, like all of them are), and then look at the chart for RVLT and the dates I'm telling you.

    Just got an email from an old friend.
    sillysally2938 by sillysally2938 • Mar 5, 2014 11:13 AM Flag
    Said she thinks RVLT's about to ride much higher. eom

    UPDATE -- The post is still up for anyone to see themselves.

    RVLT is still off 40% from where Silly Sally 2938 was pumping the stock in early March.
    Just around the same time he was pumping $25 calls on the ENOC board (Enoc is under $18 today).

    If his posts are true that he holds a large, long-term position in CREE (still down 30% from where Silly Sally was pumping it at 70), and a smaller position in Enoc that he intends to liquidate after the next report, then Silly Sally has incurred huge unrealized losses in these stocks, and is about to realize his significant loss in ENOC.

    Not exactly someone you want to take stock advice from.

  • Reply to

    CREE Short

    by aaronedward2003 Jul 10, 2014 8:57 AM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 11, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    This past January, Silly Sally 2938 pulled out his crystal ball and pumped on this board - as he often does - the EXACT OPPOSITE of what was about to occur:

    Cree 60 W equivalents available in Denver area for $7.97 each at HD
    by denverdude123 •Jan 15, 2014 9:59 AM
    sillysally2938 sillysally2938 • Jan 15, 2014 12:00 PM

    ...Margin expansion is taking place, in my opinion. The bears will soon be hibernating. GLTA shareholders and employees.
    Sentiment: Buy

    Did he read THAT in the Economist?

  • jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 9, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Somebody ought to cut and paste this and send it to Silly Sally. The poor flounder will have a heart attack (G-d forbid).

  • aaronedward, YOU ASKED. Agree with me or not, the following was my motivation for the short.

    YOU ASKED. I shorted CREE at average $50.55 because:

    Indices were at historic highs and bumping along tops that were created by the lower boundaries of their long-term channels. We know what happened two days subsequent (Mon and Tue) -- the market breakdown. I was early.

    VIX was low and complacency seemed high given the geopolitical and other events (we see where VIX went early this week)

    Summer doldrums - July - combined with all the above. Yikes.

    Within a market that felt afraid and lumbering to me (possibly dropping tide) CREE had serious issues raised in the last report that cut at the essence of the Company's multiple and share price. They're just not addressed in my view. There may be an opportunity to profit from this deviation between the real risk to CREE, short term/upcoming report -- and this flawed belief system that's hung over on the excitement generated by this story stock before the commoditization started.

    CREE's shelf space, presence and marketing/merchandising support in HD is not indicative to me of a dominant Brand, across numerous metrics.

    CREE sales head replacements - one guy has no consumer, and the other guy has no sales experience. Removals I believe (as is most often the case) were the result of Strat Plan not being achieved. I believe he IBD Article was a major exposure/fiasco of the Company's defensive stance on this.

    All of this was reinforced by the press I was reading, stating that while the Company's long term prospects are bright, short term margin pressures are going to make for a rocky time. This, right before the report where trend was broken in the last report. I was banking on people starting to become aware of this, and then the second leg down when the report comes out. I believe there is more than a 50% chance of this.

    That's why.

  • Reply to

    JP and Short Covering and Margins

    by aaronedward2003 Jul 9, 2014 5:52 PM
    jpmarketer jpmarketer Jul 9, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    My previous posts explained my short, when I shorted, my cover, when I covered, and at what levels for all.
    aaronedward2003,
    if you go back and look at my post after I covered, I characterized the trade as "sloppy," in at the wrong point, and averaged up more than I wanted to. It was a small, short-term trade that I hoped to make into a larger, longer term trade. But that morning, when I saw in pre-market the up futures, Oppenheimer upgrade and CREE spike -- I believed I would exceed my cover target that day (it did by a lot) and I covered. At exactly the time and amount I said I did.

    This is how I've made money over the years trading. Limiting my losses and letting the gains run. The size of the trade was mocked. I should have shorted with more, this high beta stock that has a history of huge moves?

    You ever get whipsawed on a high beta Cree-like trade? Gotta start small, especially with a short position.

    I come from a board, several years there, and a few before it, where several people, like you and the others, speak pretty openly about pro's and cons. Typically, some of us - not all - would post our position so that it was clear we were "speaking our book." It's a stab at straightforwardness. Like disclosure. So I've got a short position (or a long position), and I'm laying out my case for why.

    Sometimes, and maybe even often, new posters would freak out. New shorts would call me a pumper if I was noting strengths and opportunities, and new longs (and yes, some older longs) would call me basher if I were laying out a case for weaknesses or threats.

    No pump, no bash. That's it.

    I'll tell you one thing. Good thread on the margins and mix shift. Critical issues for CREE in the upcoming report. Some posters put out some good stuff, pro and con. Good luck to you.

IBM
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