No, canyonryder, that's not what I said. They can compete spectacularly because of their technology and marketing leadership. They just may not be worth today's multiple, unless they can grow sharply in the face of commoditization. Why would you say they can't compete domestically, what is your backup for that?
How incredibly shocking. They were calling for $3 if I remember right a quarter or two ago.
Wonder why they've always had a bug up their --- about ENOC
I like a lot of your thoughts there. But I disagree with some (not all of the logic).
Japanese auto's did make their mark on quality (kicked our butt in the 80;s)!!. But they were also less expensive than the American cars, and provided great value.
Further, the purchase of an auto is both "high risk" and "high involvement." Price sensitivity does take hold once a consumer has selected a class/price range of automobile based upon a variety of emotional, financial and intellectual factors.
But in a category like light bulbs -- when, for instance, all LED brands gravitate toward the same levels of efficiency, lifespan, consistency of output (or whatever dimensions bulbs are rated on), then price is going to become relatively more important -- Price will be the primary selecton criteriion in a sea of sameness.
Cadillac maintained legitimate product differentiation to justify the premium brand status, and priced accordingly. The Japanese cars maintained their quality and value, and gained share on this basis. Both examples are of legitimate differentiation that was meaningful, relevant and actionable for the group of consumers being targeted.
So again, if CREE can maintain such differentiation, as they appear to be doing now - if technology, economics and their knowledge store allows them, they may outrace the commoditization surety, and find a niche where their superiority allows them to price up and maintain profitable margins.
But if not, then they won't. Sea of oneness. It's light bulbs, not cars. Way different purchase dynamics (lower risk, less involvement), although I appreciate your thoughts and this discussion.
I've spent a career addressing branding and commoditization. if CREE or someone else can create meaningful, relevant differentiation in their products, that the trade is willing to make less on, and/or consumers are willing to pay more for, then these products wont' be commodity.
As the technology development curve flattens in LED, and the market matures, all non-differentiated market segments will commoditize, margins will erode (already happening) and only the low cost producers - or those with legitimate differentiation that people are willing to pay for -- will be standing.
I believe CREE could be one of the latter group. I just don't think that this market position would yield share, penetration or gross profit contribution that would create the growth needed to justify/sustain the multiples we saw at a pps of 70+, or even 60+.
You can bet your bottom dollar that LED, just like incandescent, will commoditize/is already commoditizing - at least for the most part. CREE has to pick their niche, dominate it, secure retail distribution from it and create a halo effect (in terms of consumer perception - no pun intended) from their currently leading technology, or they will fall into the abyss with everyone else.
I've been both short and long with CREE as trades over the past two months or so. I've done a lot of research on the Company and bought/use their products.
It's true they're aggressive marketers. But where they are most aggressive as marketers is not in gaining shelf space, or displays, or feature ads -- it's in their product development.
CREE is clearly the technology leader, and their product quality is perceived both by the industry and the Trade and Consumers as top notch.
So for a poster to come on this board and spew complete hogwash like this is ridiculous. About poor quality, poor technology, etc -- complete hogwash.
I still think the commoditization is going to get the Company's goat. I don't think they can grow as ultra fast as was thought when the PPS was in the 70's. But that doesn't mean this isn't a great company, great products, of the highest quality and technology standards. They are CREATING the standards, much less following them.
I may be short tomorrow for trading reasons (or long) - but this Canyon157ryder poster should be discredited to all who follow this board.
Thank you Raybans. I agree with you on CREE's segmentation and branding efforts. That's exactly what I was talking about.
Another opportunity is to compete in some of the commoditized segments, but to create this "halo effect" through their superior technology development. If they can charge a point or two more than everyone else because the CREE brand allows them to -- this is another sustainable strategy. I figure it's part of the plan, looking at their recent television campaign.
All of this would make for a somewhat smaller, yet profitable and growing company. I believe that's where they net out (if not acquired), but it's not the stuff of the multiples we've seen for CREE in the past -- that's the issue, and why down here in high 40's seems more comfortable than at higher levels, at least given their guidance in the last report.
Excuse me, you said,
"Last post for the time being here. I'm waiting for the next earnings surprise and acquisition. Nothing else to say until then."
But now you're back within minutes.
I have one alias, JPmarketer, been using it on Yahoo for about ten years, and only rarely get accosted by multi-alias trolls like you.
But like you, they are always resident pumpers or bashers on a particular board, and only want me and other clear thinking posters gone, if not, create confusion, conflict, etc.
You said, "NOTHING ELSE TO SAY UNTIL THEN."
You just compulsively posted again, within minutes, because you couldn't help it.
Also, if one goes over to the ENOC board, all of my posts are there. You took yours down, almost all of them, as you do after a major pump.
Sorry pal, you are EXPOSED for what you are. I'm going to keep doing my thing, as I enjoy the interaction with legitimate posters. The only "carrying on" is yours.
You're a circus barker and bark or not, I don't care. No one does.
You have been stalking me for about two months, and have now, threatened to stop what, about 35 times, always "stomping off" in righteous indignation.
I have been on the ENOC board for 7-8years, one alias, unlike the multiple aliases you use (silly sally and jimbob being the two most recent).
I have opinions like other posters, and from time to time, they involve projections that the pps may drop. A piece of my portfolio is short-term trading.
Sir, your calls have been absolutely horrendous. You are a vicious pumper who stalks and pursues targeted posters who put out points of view that may not be all positive, all the time. You have done this on ENOC numerous times, and no one engages you, like they do here.
You are a complete waste of time, and I would thank you to, for once, honor your commitment to put me on ignore, so we don't have to deal with your subterfuge any further.
Same rumor that's been out there for years -- this time, picked up by The STREET publication and touted on the momentum only.
THEN picked up and touted by every long hopeful.
Then Friday night touted by CRAMER (Principal of the STREET publication), picking up on his own pickup of the Twitter rumor.
This thing picked up a life all of it's own with no valid source that any kind of talks were underway. All Philips did was deny (or was it GE), just like they always do. There was nothing here. 0
Then, the STREET publication comes out on Friday - after everything and reiterates the C+rating for the stock.
I wonder if this is another CREE rip your face off PUMP AND DUMP WITH A STORY STOCK HIGH ON SHORT INTEREST AFTER A BIG (FUNDAMENTALS-DRIVEN) DROP. Earnings still half a summer away.
Will this spike a little more? Maybe. But when the realization hits that the fundamentals are the same as coming off the disappointing call, we'll see if this holds. We may see a fizzle.
No position here. Will consider short when the momentum breaks, as early as this morning or early afternoon. Will consider a long position on any type of fundamentals (or even speculation of fundamentals)-driven breakout. But not on a TWITTER RUMOR. Would rather miss a run-up then get burned in the type of CREE PPS COLLAPSE we've seen after EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE RUMORS HAS ABATED.
Is it the death knell for both Demand Response and the traditional utility?
Rocky Mountain Institute is saying that solar + storage is already at parity cost with fossil fuels in Hawaii, one of the (the) highest energy markets. They're saying that "10's of millions of American homes and businesses will have access to solar + storage at parity cost by 2024."
That's only 10 years out, so it's happening between now and then. Enernoc's got a huge infrastructure built around demand response. I guess if it can become an energy management company, software company, etc -- then it's not as dependent upon DR.
But this seems to me like the "pivot" I just watched in the last episode of "Silicon Valley" on HBO.
Technology is moving so fast, that even Enernoc's leadership may soon be outmoded, as its defining Category becomes obsolete for an increasingly distributed grid.
No one's immune to this with the rate of technology growth in this era. Not even Twitter, who I've always maintained is a platform, not a technology, and therefore subject to both faddism and encroachment. That's the basis of the management turmoil they're having. You'll see.
But back to topic, I wonder if Demand response is in trouble. As the load on utilities decreases with homes and businesses going offline, or offering storage and CAPACITY to the grid, will Enernoc's DR relevance fade?
I have no position currently and this is nothing to do with a trade. Longer term issues, but ones that should be confronted, at least somewhat, in the upcoming earnings conference, imo.
Unfortunately, "Sal", your transparency defines you.
I simply said Iraq was at war and would drag CREE down with it.
Your language includes:
"You don't bother me"
"You're no challenge to me"
"You're overmatched and undertalented"
"Why is it they call you Shorty"
I propose, sir, that my prior tagging of your personal confidence deficit is now confirmed.
It must be difficult to be late in life, like you - and have these unresolved issues that you outlet onto a finance chat board. If your past posts about your age, stage of life, etc - are not posing (either personally or professionally), then I have compassion for you, despite your attacks.
PS - Been self employed for 18 years, and it's great. The last business I managed as an employee was the motor oil brand I mentioned in a previous post - where commoditization of the category possibly offers insight into what's happening with CREE. I have no position on the latest rumors today, whether they are legitimate -- or again -- a pump and dump.
You seem to have challenges with personal confidence and anger - and a resulting (obsessive/controlling) need for the last word.
Yesterday, I simply said the market was about to fall apart, and would most likely drag CREE with it. That's what's happening today.
All of the rest of your stuff is subterfuge.
JimbobobSal, or whatever you call yourself,
You can discuss it with your blow-up doll if you want to. It was a good call, it's happening, and that's it. Nothing you say can change that. Mosul is burning, oil is rising, air strikes are being desperately requested and, well, it is what it is.
I've been on the ENOC board with the same alias -- JPmarketer, for about, I dunno, like 7 years. On Yahoo with this alias for about ten years, never another.
You, on the other hand, appear to be some type of chatboard manipulator/writer. I don't understand your business, but I know filth when I see it.
And in terms of your calls on both ENOC and CREE, they have been HORRIBLE.
You are drenched in flop sweat. I'm sorry.