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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

jpnmqrtn 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 12:08 PM Member since: Dec 7, 2004
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  • Reply to

    $$$$ will flow into KZ today and after earnings

    by basiarob Aug 26, 2014 9:43 AM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 27, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    I think they need to get off their butts and force the issue with a divi or a repurchase. China companies of this kind rarely do much but KZ has some warrants out there that you have think wargaming and Arena net expect some kind of return on. These warrants were designed to offer a payment through an appreciating share price. I would think KZ would be feeling some pressure sitting on 200 million in cash to do something. Revenues are making substantial gains and profits in Q3 should be significant. Cash flow should be incredible and they should be able to act now.

    If they don't act it signals another China company just doing whatever they want to do. Investors are of no concern. I would think Wargaming and Arena net would point out this issue as they are looking at share price as payment.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Aug 23, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Once the cost for gw2 launch is written off this should be quit profitable. I am thinking EPS Q3 30 c share maybe higher. Q4 could be better. I have no idea why this is trading at book. The growth will surge minus WVAS . WVAS is #$%$ margins anyway. Not sure if KZ will be able to grow and maintain as games fade in/out.
    Even more amazing is why bigger players allow Kongzhong to play in their pool of profits. Ntes, Ga, Tencent etc. Taking Ky out $15-$20 bucks would seem reasonable.

  • Reply to

    Debello

    by jpnmqrtn Aug 18, 2014 8:39 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 18, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    We can all thank William Blair as well for
    Sticking everyone with that $5.25 secondary.

    Nice set up.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Aug 18, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    Selling and selling and selling was enough to know nothing here was a lock. A positive thing was all the other insiders were taking shares and staying the course. The contingent cast seemed more competent than The CEO.

    Has the exodus begun? I would say the CEO abandoned ship long ago and the crew is just now learning what has happened. The guy has ethical challenges and with a critical court case pending that is a scary cocktail to be holding.

  • Reply to

    Erivedge Royalties

    by billygbillyg Aug 12, 2014 12:48 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 13, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    Yes 3 mm next year is required to pay off loan and if they can get above 150mm 7.5 percent comes into play. They used the term less than 150 to 600 as quoted. I take it that it means above 150 but less than 600? It is an awkward wording IMHO. But, with that said, I assume this is on an annual basis rolling average. Or, is the calculation 37.5mm in one quarter that would equal 150mm annually. Ratcheting up to 7.5 percent is a big deal. Anyone know the exact terms?

    Since we are at 36mm now then if we can repeat 3 more quarters at 38 mm then we would pass the threshold for 7.5 percent. We will likely beat 37 mm next quarter but only had 28mm in Q1 that hurts the avg if it is on a annual rolling avg.

  • Reply to

    Something is Cooking at Curis

    by mrcf7655 Aug 13, 2014 5:56 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 13, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    Fully agree on the First Eagle backstop. I don't agree it was all Russell rebalancing. But nonetheless I am steadily buying. In fact, I had 2000 bid out in AH at around 7pm @$1.63. Just calling their after hours bluff and they didn't sell me any. There is a nasty little mm on this and being patient is key.

    First eagle is a big deal and key reason to own. 100 percent correct on that point.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Aug 13, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    Moved it to a hold because the big boys have off loaded onto the little guys. That's Zacks MO.
    It is exactly the same thing I have seen several times from them now.
    I wouldn't be surprised if they do an article on all the insiders selling just to put an exclamation point on the stiff job they gave the retailers....again.

  • Reply to

    Something is Cooking at Curis

    by mrcf7655 Aug 13, 2014 5:56 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 13, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    I think like Blackrock shorts the stock when they want out and then use their long share to cover their short position. That's why you get these huge short positions showing up and then covering without any upside.
    There seems to be something not spoken as to why so many different firms bailed and the CEO was replaced.
    I don't think the company has told us the truth....yet. He may have been telling them he has a buyer lined up and then has had to eat crow. I will be surprised we don't get a nasty little story on the news front about the abandonment. But again, management and the BOD needs some stirring so keep a little powder in case the sale price gets even better. Just saying...BUY low.

  • Reply to

    Something is Cooking at Curis

    by mrcf7655 Aug 13, 2014 5:56 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 13, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    You might want to look at the 6/30 institutional holdings that are filed so far.
    Some big positions are very annoyed with Cris management and have sold shares.

    The good thing is a couple of the big ones still holding have filed and are hanging on.

    The bad thing is who buys up the slack...some nice names have left or at least on 6/30 were halfway out the door.

    Management got this message. The CEO is out and this I why. If you read the 10 Q his employment agreement is weak with indications he won't be around for long.

    That in itself says the BOD is very clear on the messages being sent by Institutional investors.

    In fact, I don't know if I have ever seen a more clearer message sent by shares sold.

    Again, if there is a good thing, piles of selling have already occurred as of June 30th giving we are mid August that would seem to have passed if you were going to bail while the bailing was good.

  • jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 12, 2014 5:47 AM Flag

    I suggest you use a couple of your excess brain cells an check out a longer term trend. This has been well below $1.50 before and it can do it again. Sure $1.67 looks decent I bought another 10000 at 1.70. Plan to buy 50000 more if it breaks down further. But not until the bottom is dredged and confirmed. This board is full of raving fools. I would of course take $5 right here right now without another share purchased. That would be ok by me not to own 50000 more. But just in case, it really gets crazy I have cash ready.

  • Reply to

    Is Erivedge good enough for $2. or not ??

    by dndrafter Aug 11, 2014 4:06 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Aug 11, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    These guys have spent 800 million in capital and achieved a market cap of 140 million.

    I think it's worth somewhere between 300 to 400 million.

    However, the market says different. Managements job is to bring forth value.

    Since the value is awful that indicates the markets perception of management.
    Not really much else can be said.

    A little surprised with the free passes these guys get on every conference call.

    Must be the PHD and the civility requirements of money losing bio techs.

    Not much to show for $800 million spent.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Aug 11, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    Looks like we are headed there again. Keep some powder dry.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Jul 30, 2014 6:44 PM Flag

    Why doesn't Cisco end the competition? Sure some risk of antitrust but they would likely get the majority of it.
    None of the networking equipment makers are doing much. seems like a no brainer.

  • Reply to

    Buyout most likely scenario

    by malph_ralph Jul 24, 2014 12:10 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Jul 24, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    Are you serious lawsuits? On a stock that has never reached $7 in a decade? I will take $5 and be glad...very glad to do so. Convince me otherwise? But, looking at the charts it has never sold for long above $5. I don't see how anyone can peg it much higher then market value for 10 years.

  • Reply to

    RBC positive comments

    by maiguiral Jul 24, 2014 2:55 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Jul 24, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    From $4.5 to $1.60 is that not enough of a beating? Erivedge has been up 25-30 percent for 2 quarters in a row 28 million to 37 million. 111 percent Yoy growth. We got 1 cent on the share price.

    Loan repayment will be 10 to 12 quarters. They can call it in early at a fee. We will likely hit the 40 million max payback next quarter( 2 million principal pay). This was decent news but still not enough cash to get us to 2017.

    I agree the company needs a financial plan to get their work to market. A buyout or asset sale would make sense. Unfortunately, with the price under 2$ their bargaining position is poor. Of course, that may be by design. It does seem someone has stepped on the neck of this one.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Jul 19, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Will we get the 3 million milestone payment in Q2 earnings? If so with Everidge are we looking at 2-3 cent loss? I would think the market would like -2c very much. Insider buying could follow. If the milestone is Q3 and Everidge continues accelerating maybe one time break even Q3? I am a little surprised shorts are running at this with Everidge accelerating 30% QoQ

  • jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Jul 19, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    It looks much deeper than that. What did Cris just change CEO for? I know what they said.

    I think the shareholder common are tired of the dots that don't connect. 13 years and $900MM for a $1.65 is wearing thin. Patience is exhausted with the waiting for outcomes. It is a good entry point but very painful for anyone riding it down from $4. Management needs to manage situations like this one. Maybe they will.

    I hate to see them sell the company but I am not real clear how they get to profitability any time soon. Without cash, they could have a fire sale not to their liking. Knowing how shorts play, that may already be starting. Secondary offerings are not a real good option for a $1 stock.

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value

    by jpnmqrtn Jul 17, 2014 6:24 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Jul 17, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Yup that's why I plan to settle in for a longer wait. Frankly, not done buying so if it goes lower it wouldn't hurt my feelings any. If it doesn't go lower I am ok as well. Wait and see.

  • jpnmqrtn by jpnmqrtn Jul 17, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    Worth 122MM on 900MM in research 13 years of research. $1.69 a share... I don't know why someone doesn't step in and swallow it. If its legitimate and valuable which it seems to be. What are we missing?

    Insiders own a significant amount. The market melts down are we going to a $1. Seriously!!

  • Reply to

    Question for Board

    by chiefenlil Jul 16, 2014 5:48 PM
    jpnmqrtn jpnmqrtn Jul 16, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    It seems like it came down to this level on little reason. I am a cautious buyer looking for $3 to $4.
    Management is changing model from molecular discovery to practical application.

    The company has spent 900 million in discovery with a market cap of 150 million.

    Reminds me of mining for gold lots of money up front with no gold for a long time.

    I think it is worth much more than 150 million to someone. I don't think it's worth 900 million.

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