ING GROEP N.V.
NEW YORK - Die amerikanische Investmentbank Morgan Stanley hat ING trotz des starken Kursanstieg der vergangenen Monate von "Equal-weight" auf "Overweight" hochgestuft und das Kursziel von 7,30 auf 10,00 Euro angehoben. Die positivere Einschätzung basiere auf dem von ihm erwarteten Wachstum der Zinsmarge im Bankgeschäft, schrieb Analyst David Andrich in einer Studie vom Freitag. Dieser Aspekt sei noch nicht eingepreist und die Banksparte des Finanzkonzerns im Branchenvergleich unterbewertet.
FRANKFURT--The following is a summary of analysts' forecasts for ING Groep NV (ING) second-quarter results, based on a poll of eight analysts conducted by Dow Jones Newswires (figures in million euros, target price in euro, according to IFRS). Earnings figures are scheduled to be released August 7.
EBT EBT Net
EBT Banking Insurance attrib.
2nd Quarter Underlying Underlying Underlying profit
AVERAGE 1,171 956 228 833
Prev. Year 1,305 1,011 294 1,293
+/- in % -10 -5.4 -23 -36
MEDIAN 1,167 1,003 212 861
Maximum 1,316 1,042 313 882
Minimum 992 730 182 740
Amount (a) 6 7 6 5
Citigroup 1,146 948 198 --
Credit Suisse 1,316 1,003 313 740
Deutsche Bank 1,124 1,042 182 --
J.P. Morgan 1,187 1,003 184 861
Kepler Cheuvreux -- 930 -- --
Rabobank 1,262 1,036 226 882
UBS -- -- -- 872
Target price Rating
AVERAGE 8.73 positive 4
Prev. Quarter 8.71 neutral 2
+/- in % +0.3 negative 1
Credit Suisse 9.00 Outperform
Deutsche Bank 7.70 Hold
J.P. Morgan 9.90 Overweight
Kepler Cheuvreux 6.80 Reduce
Morgan Stanley -- Equalweight
Rabobank 9.50 Buy
UBS 9.50 Buy
A possible simple explanation might be that NBG management wants to keep the bank private .
To be on the safe side, they intentionally underpriced the new issue in order to attract a lot of private money, including hedge funds to balance state funds.
And, oh, if you was in their place, wouldn't you want to attract lost friendly investors, who also might get bridge loans to buy up the bank shares on the cheap.
ING dutifully followed the EU approval directive and conditions (which by the way, well, actually was more like punishment, for the liquidity crunch and Dutch state loan, at the bottom of the 2008 crisis) to clean its business portfolio, and ING completed a lot of forced sells of noncore business units all over the world.
ING sold in this last 5 years into a very weak demand for bank/insurance businesses almost all of its noncore businesses at an average of less than book price by now.
This process added to and improved ING's central treasury's liquidity, provided time to restructure, rethink core business strategy. BUT this period is over after 5 years, this ING does not need any more. It needs something else.
As the price for the so-called help, the forced sells destroyed real business value for ING shareholders, prevented to develop and destroyed almost all growth paths available for ING, at home and on emerging markets. ING still keeps paying a huge price for state loan in a zero interest rate environment.
One more that kind of bailout, and ING will collapse under the weight of outside "help".
Lets face facts: at the end, this was not help. This was max. a well-intended idea with VERY BAD final results. The end result was much closer to a bank robbery, orchestrated by EU, institutionalized by EU conditions. This destroyed tens of billions (most probably over $40B!) real value. Filled the coffers of the buyers of sold units, the state, and helped win IPO buyers at rock-bottom prices.
No wonder here: every time a state of superstate EU mixes into business, it destroys value, and the real effect is opposite to what was intended.
This crazy silliness MUST stop NOW.
ING price started up in May last year, and looks like doing the same thing again this year.
Last year the price started at $6 and finished at 10.5 at yearend;
since then ING corrected the rally by FIBO 38%.
If we are in longerterm, like in a 10 year uptrend,
(I really think we are, after almost 7 years of downward correction),
then by the end of 2013 we should see ING price to hit $13-14.
This is the point when ALL remaining weak hands will sell,
and in 2014 ING will break above $14. And should march ahead up by $3-4/year, for 10 years.
Most of us strongly hope the new management team will be able to perform MUCH better
than the incompetent Jan's team did in the last 4 years.
By my Elliott count of AAPL
-wave A down started 4/10/2012 from $628
-wave B up stated 5/18/2012 from $430
-wace C down started from $700
Wave C down should have 5 subwaves, and if you identify the gap on 1/24/2013 as 3 of 3 down,
then it is quite easy to count 4 subwaves completed.
If wave (5) of C will be equal to wave (1) of C (which is a common relationship)
then (5) should be $170 long, started down on 3/25/2013, from $470,
and should end at $300.
This will be the first really good buying opportunity.
Since the last down waves usually have 5 subwaves,
usually form a falling wedge,
it should be easy to follow this "very pessimistic" scenario.
Well, finally some hope with the new CEO.
And I hope he can replace the current management,
call in proven and ambitious bank managers to help him to make ING to work and prosper again.
I still dont know what ING board were thinking, 4 years ago,
naming a 65 year old nice guy to CEO post. He proved to be a terrible choice, a simple loss of time for ING.
He clearly had no ambition, no competence to lead ING out of the mess of 2008 crisis.
Anyways, I think all shareholders are happy.
for this new CEO at least shall have ambition,
I hope he has courage to take the steps necessaary to help ING to recover.
ING Groep Names Belgian Head Hamers CEO to Succeed Hommen
By Maud van Gaal - Feb 22, 2013 1:03 PM GMT+0100.
ING Groep NV (INGA), the biggest Dutch financial-services company, promoted Ralph Hamers to be chief executive officer, replacing Jan Hommen, the former chairman who led the firm through the aftermath of a government bailout.
The 46-year-old Hamers, a Dutch national, has led the company’s Belgian and Luxembourg banking unit since 2011 and will take the top job in October. Hommen, whose four-year term as CEO ends on May 13, will have his contract extended by four months to “ensure a smooth leadership transition,” the Amsterdam-based company said in a statement today.
Hamers will become responsible for completing a European Union-imposed restructuring plan that will see ING sell its global insurance and investment-management operations before the end of 2018 and repay the remainder of the Dutch government’s 10 billion euros ($13.2 billion) in bailout money by May 2015. Hamers joined the company in 1991 and has run ING’s Dutch banking unit and its global commercial lending division.
“Hamers, while a surprising candidate, seems well suited for the job,” said Matthias De Wit, a Brussels-based analyst at Petercam SA with a hold rating on the shares. “He’s proven to be a capable and experienced manager and has a lot of experience in risk management.”
ING shares rose 1.7 percent to 6.28 euros at 12:40 p.m. in Amsterdam, giving the company a market value of 24 billion euros. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent since Jan. 23, 2009, the last trading day before Hommen took the top job.
Hommen, 69, became CEO after chairing ING’s supervisory board. He took over from Michel Tilmant after the company’s 2008 bailout and has disposed of assets from Latin America to Asia, including the sale of ING Direct USA to Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
here is the symmary of G20.
Conclusion: all clear to continue sell the yen
Reuters) - Financial leaders from the world's 20 biggest economies may have promised not to devalue their currencies to help exports, but the pledge will do little to keep exchange rates stable.
While G20 finance ministers and central bank governors can promise not to devalue their currencies directly, there can be no guarantees while central banks are pumping money into economies to make them grow again.
"We will refrain from competitive devaluation. We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes," the G20 financial leaders said in a closing statement after meeting in Moscow on Friday and Saturday.
But it is precisely the ultra-loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan, aimed at helping their domestic economies to grow, that depressed the dollar and the yen and sparked the whole competitive devaluation debate.
That trend is unlikely to change, something China and other key emerging markets were quick to warn against in Moscow.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke said on Friday that "the United States was using domestic policy tools to advance domestic objectives".
Tokyo in turn insists that the Bank of Japan's pledge to start buying unlimited amounts government bonds is purely to help its shrinking economy get out of recession.
The G20 agreed there was nothing wrong with such policies.
But a devaluation of a currency, whether deliberate or just a side-effect of monetary policy, is still a devaluation. Calling it competitive or otherwise just labels the intent behind the move.
Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, asked after the G20 talks how to distinguish whether monetary policy was aimed at boosting the economy or specifically targeting the exchange rate said: "It's quite difficult to gauge that."
While Japan has insisted that neither this week's G7 or G20 currency statements required it to change policy tack in any way, anonymous briefing after the former said Tokyo was squarely being targeted.
Perhaps what riled the Group of Seven rich powers in particular is not Japan's policy slate, which could bolster world economic recovery, but statements by some Japanese officials targeting specific levels for the yen.
"The market will take the G20 statement as an approval for what it has been doing -- selling of the yen," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. "No censure of Japan means they will be off to the money printing presses."
And see what happens. I bet MFG will rally 6-10% by Monday's close.
If this happens, just repeat this simple procedure (DO NOT SELL!)
for the next 10 days.
We should get MFG to rally in 2 weeks to over $6.0/share.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is undervalued. No doubt about it.
But for a reason. Which is the shame of the BOD of ING.
This bank has the worst executive management anybody can find among the top 50 banks of this planet.
And the BOD did nothing, since at least 5 years, when the incompetence came to light for everybody to see. It is clear as the sun.
No, never, no one single BOD member ever questioned: Why is ING performing THAT bad,
compared to peer banks? Never asked himself: Is anything here I can do about?
That is the problem. Corrupt=BOD. Means the Dutch way.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I added today to my position in PC.
I think this has 50-80% upside potential in USD as the yen keeps devalued by BOJ.
Adn why $400?
The fibo 37% of the top price of $700 is...$264.
Or you added on the cash $135/shr? ;-)
Consider: Right now, ALL AAPl shareholders are underwater.
All want to get out. Impossible, except you find to replace 160m shareholders with another 160M american sharebuyers, with $400B cash in hand, and all wanting to buy nothing buy Apple. Impossible.
Wait until APPL price drops in current downward channel by sept.2013 to $265;
this is a good entry point.
ADvise: follow professionals, sell out. Save the cash until sep.2013,
and then buy back.
Sorry to disappoint,
for AAPL in doing DOWN, (I think until sept.2013, at current speed and in current channel)
and expect to bottoming at $265.
This is FIBO 37% of the top price of $700.
Ask any TA, what happens to a stock, with ALL current shareeholders underwater?
He will tell you this, check any book on investing by TA.
Advice: get out with 50% of your position;
save the money until price drops no more, no waves anymore up or down,,
just slow sideways moves for 3 months.
Then wait for the first higher high, and higher low wave
(I expect it sometimes in oct-nov.2013,
in $260-280 range.
then BUY AAPL with the money you just saved.
You should hold it until $460, and you have best chance to get out even with all your money.
the trouble is,ALL AAPL shareholders are underwater...
and behave just like you said. All want to get out.... Impossible.
AAPL must drop to $265 (Fibo 37% of the top price of $7002) before
any buyer/sellerequilibrium might halt the slide. remeber those math series? Calculate.
Get out, save the money,
wait until sept. 2013 when we are at $265,
then jump in. Most of your money will come back.
The yen/usd correction was a "running" type around 89.0 yen/usd level, for 3 weeks,
and looks like it ended by hitting 91 level yesterday. The yen depreciation should continue, with
similar 1% / week speed downward.
Paralel, NIKKEI corrected for 3 weeks, at around 10700 level,
and looks like it finished the sideways correction. Looks ready to continue upward.
The breakout from the longer term NIKKEI downward trend (the last downward trend started in okt.2007 !) is complete, and looks stabilized.
Nikkei bottomed at 7000 level; which is 7000/40000=17.5% of the alltime high in 1999.
We might need 1-2 more weeks to gather strength to restart upwards,
but I think it is not required.
The next upleg should start now, maybe a little slower and with somewhat wider swings than in the last 11 weeks. The BOJ must be careful with slight open market operations to keep the rally in balance: do not permit to slow down, and do not permit to accelerate to exponential form.
As before with the intra-week swings, for now, the second parts #$%$) of the week looks stronger than the first 2 days..
MFG looks the strongest of the japan banks.
NMR is also very strong, just like Daiwa Securities.
The exporting industrials are strong, they started up all, and should at least double in 1 year.