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Market Vectors Mortgage REIT Income ETF Message Board

jrad52 158 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 1:35 PM Member since: Jul 25, 1999
  • Reply to

    From the MLP investors conference today

    by ayscuew May 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 23, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    I'll give you another possible motivation for Mr Cline to sell some of his NRP holdings. Assuming Foresight eventually is successful in going public, it has to give very detailed disclosure about its dealing with NRP as long as Mr Cline's ownership in NRP makes the 2 companies "related". I don't think NRP likes the idea of this additional disclosure because it's a whole lot more detailed than the disclosure that NRP gives out. So maybe Mr Cline wants to reduce his NRP ownership down to the point that Foresight isn't required to disclose as much.

    Or here are another possibilities - the reduction in Mr Cline's units from 10.5 MM to 5 MM represents units owned by trusts for Mr Cline's children. Those trusts put the units into something called Cline Trust Company or something like that. Maybe the kids wanted to diversify away from coal, since they will presumably inherit a ton of coal from dad eventually. Or maybe the new Cline Trust Company units are no longer considered controlled by Mr Cline and no one sold anything.

    It's way too convoluted for me.

  • Reply to

    From the MLP investors conference today

    by ayscuew May 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 23, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    NRP said in the Q1 release that part of the problem was lessees moving off their properties. Nothing new there. In some cases, this is customary. Say I operate a coal mine. I arrange for access to coal reserves at the site of my mine. Some of those reserves are owned by NRP, some are owned by other landowners. As I work the mine, sometimes I move off the reserves owned by NRP and move onto the adjacent reserves owned by someone else. Later, as I continue to mine, I will eventually move back to the reserves owned by NRP. I've seen this disclosure from NRP for a year or 2 now, maybe in the Risk Factors part of the 10-K. It doesn't seem to be a big surprise or big deal. But when NRP disclosed the impact of this on 2014 projections (maybe in the 10-Q, or an earlier presentation, I forget), there was 1 mine where they didn't say anything about the move being a normal part of operations.

    Anyway, at the midpoint, NRP's guidance for DCF is $ 215 MM. They need $ 158 MM for distributions, leaving $ 57 MM. So to pay down $ 100 MM of debt, they need some other source of money. They plan on selling $ 20 MM of units in an ATM program and I suspect they will sell more units. They should have sold some units last September to avoid or reduce the need to issue that 9.125% debt.

    At the risk of being annoying, I want to point out once again that NRP misrepresents its DCF calculation. Up until a few years back, NRP reduced DCF by debt principal repayments. Then it stopped doing this, saying it intended to refinance debt as it came due. Now that it is not (maybe not able to?) refinance the debt on decent terms, it's repaying it as it comes due. But it still doesn't reduce DCF by the repayments.

    And finally, NRP filed to register the 9.125% debt with the SEC so it can trade among non-professional investors. Once that happens, maybe we can see how that debt trades and maybe buy some.

  • Reply to

    Put the money to work!

    by ayscuew May 22, 2014 6:32 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 22, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    The money is mostly used up. They used something like $ 200 MM of the loans to repay the term loan they took out to finance the OCI Wyoming acquisition. The rest was used to pay down the revolver, which is the only amount availbale now for acquisitions. NRP may have used some of that for last year's oil & gas acquisitions; I don't remember. But most was used for the OCI deal.

  • 1 was filed yesterday and another today. I think they are getting real close to going effective. I hope it's priced reasonably; I might buy some. If it's priced unreasonably, I might buy more ARLP instead.

  • I like to say that; I don't get to say it too often.

    In today's 8-K describing the termination of Grant Thornton as the company's auditors, PKE confirms they had a disagreement with Grant over the need to provide the $ 64 MM deferred taxes on the undistributed earnings of the Singapore subsidiary. They say the disagreement was resolved to Grant's satisfaction, which mean Grant got its way and the tax charge was accrued. And Grant got fired immediately after the 10-K was filed.

    Now, a prediction: PKE has a ton of cash ($ 270 MM constituting a ton) offshore and it has now provided US taxes on about $ 180 MM of it. Presumably the tax provision was required because PKE could not show that it had the required intent not to repatriate those earnings indefinitely. Again, presumably, the issue is that PKE has not made any business investments with that money outside the US and PKE has a demonstrated need for the money in the US to repay the debt that was incurred to pay the last 2 years' dividends. So my prediction is that sometime this year, PKE will find a non-US acquisition to show its intention not to repatriate, and will try to reverse at least part of the tax provision. Since the cash isn't generating any income currently ($ 460K of interest income in fiscal 2014 on average balances of more than $ 250 MM for the year), just about any acquisition will be accretive to earnings.

    FWIW

  • Reply to

    Just wondering!

    by ayscuew May 19, 2014 5:53 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 19, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    You should look at other boards from time to time. Those people who "made $ 77K" on NRP also made $ 77K on hundreds of other stocks, based on the posts. And for the longest time, it was always $ 77K. Now I've seen a few that show $ 32K as well.

    Yahoo also allows you to report the posters, but I think that's just to make you feel good. Just hitting the ignore button works for me.

    And if you think they're bad, you should take a look at the boards that are dominated by the unemployed political posters - they post so frequently they can't have jobs.

    There was a story in the NY Times recently about fake 911 calls from disconnected cell phones. Apparently, the law requires cell phones to reach 911, even after the regular cell phone service is terminated. And because the phone service is terminated, the 911 operators can't use caller ID. The story was about the surge in fake 911 calls around the country. Anyway, 1 guy got caught doing this in San Francisco - he had made over 8,000 such calls, many in succession. When he got caught, it turns out he had some mental problems so there wasn't much they could do about it. Why do I mention this? Because I think the same thing has happened on Yahoo boards like NTI. I think it's just 1 guy posting hundreds of times, on both sides of the Republican and Democrat fights.

  • Reply to

    Very disappoining earnings.

    by nestlecat May 16, 2014 10:56 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 19, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    I listened to the call. Only 3 analysts asked questions (plus 1 guy that sounded really really old; I figured him to be a retired investor). No one asked about the tax hit.

    I have never listened to a PKE earnings call before, so I have nothing to compare this call to. Mr. Shore was really positive about the business (not aerospace). Said booking for the 1st 10 weeks of Q1 were at a run rate that would hit $ 48 MM is sales for the Q. Then for the rest of the call he talked about that; he said it "felt" like a real turn around in business and that it seemed to represent sales to Asian companies for use in Asia, not for export. And each time he said this, he warned that it might just be a head fake like all the other turn-arounds in electronics have turned out to be for PKE. So take that for what it's worth.

    But no one asked about the tax charge, which is the first thing I would have thought people would have asked about. Strange. Of course, they couldn't have asked about the auditors, since PKE announced the change the day after the call.

  • Reply to

    Where's the growth

    by greendog03 May 16, 2014 8:27 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 19, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    You have to wonder if the termination of Grant Thornton had something to do with the $ 64 million tax charge for unrepatriated earnings. The company still says it has no intention to repatriate the foreign earnings, but they provided the tax expense anyway. And the day after filing the 10-K, they fire the auditors. I'll have to listen to the earnings call tonight. Maybe it will be interesting.

    But I still wouldn't buy the stock at today's price.

  • Reply to

    RSI 23. OVER SOLD

    by ringfortheking1 May 16, 2014 10:09 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 19, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Boy, am I glad I didn't post anything to contradict you. I had no idea that posts on this board could affect the stock's price quite so much. Obviously, someone believed you and bought some ACET the first chance he got.

    Seriously, does anyone know anything about today's trading except the upgrade from Sidoti (never heard of them).

  • Not sure anyone would care, but yesterday I went back to posts on this board from a year ago. Because we have not heard from Mr Ayscuew for so long, I wanted to see if he took a vacation this time last year. (I remember 1 occasion when he was gone for a few days and later explained that he had been on vacation without internet access, so I was just checking.)

    So when I clicked back about 10 times on the NRP board, I finally got to the right time, but there was something unusual. The posts did not have any screen names on them - they had normal people's first names. In particular, there were a lot of posts from "James" and "William". My name is Jim, and like a jerk I clicked on 1 of the messages from "James". Sure enough, it was my post, but at that point, the screen name popped up again and it showed "jrad52". So I back clicked to the summary, but by then all the screen names were back. So I couldn't match William's posts to anyone in particular.

    So I'm guessing Mr Ayscuew's first name is Bill. I hope this information doesn't embarrass him and when/if he returns, I can verify this. But Yahoo's security is really bad if people's names occasionally pop up instead of their screen names. I wasted 15 minutes this morning trying to duplicate this result, but no success.

    FWIW.

  • No idea where Yahoo gets the $ 1.24 billion market cap, though. First, it's debt, not equity. And the amount is pretty small - $ 55 million, maybe up to $ 63 million if KBW takes the overallotment.

  • Just a statistic that amazed me. The WS Journal has a report on the Turkish mine disaster that I saw today that mentions that 6,000 people worked at the underground mine to produce 2.5 million tons per year. I didn't see if they were all miners, just that 6,000 people worked at the mine, or if they were all full-time. Also, I don't know what "full-time" might mean in Turkey.

    For comparison, Foresight Energy's (currently owned mostly by Mr Cline, related to NRP) most productive mine is Williamson, which employs 173 people, 130 of whom work underground, to produce 6.7 million tons last year.

    That isn't a fair comparison; Williamson is supposed to be the most productive coal mine in the US. But all the mines I could find employee data for showed hundreds of employees for comparable sized-mines.

    I'm not making light of the loss for the Turkish miners's families. I'm just mentioning the apparent difference in technology. And the thing that amazes me most is this: even assuming that 1,000 miners worked at a time, how did they get them all into an underground mine, and how did they fit together wotking? Obviously not well, considering how difficult it was to get them out.

    FWIW.

    I'll throw in a few exclamation points in my next post, in case anyone is missing them.

  • Reply to

    kmr shares

    by jefferymoon20 May 16, 2014 5:11 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 16, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    They hit my Schwab account last night.

  • Reply to

    Highest volume daY

    by straight4wd May 15, 2014 2:53 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 15, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    I understand your point, but the EPS wasn't quite $ 1.28 without the write-off.

    On the call, management said "Excluding the impairment charges and related tax effects, we reported net income of $21.7 million and net income per common diluted share or $0.90." (from the middle of the CFO's comments, per seeking Alpha)

    And income included several 1-time items that seem to have added $ 10 million to income ($ 5.6 million class action suit settlement and $ 4.4 million recovery from former customer). There were also a few negative 1-time items in the year, so call it maybe $ 5 million net positive. So looking at the year and what might be recurring, I would think EPS would have been somewhere around 75 cents if you ignore all the noise.

    Don't get me wrong - the world didn't end last night and the stock price should eventually recover. It's too late to sell now, and too early to buy. I would expect some selling pressure to continue for a little while at least, and management's comments make me think Q1 and Q2 of the current year aren't going to be too pretty, either (the part about making investments in the first half of the current year, but the benefits of those investments not showing up until the second half). My main complaint is that someone obviously knew what the Q4 looked like long before the earnings were released and traded on that information. Just look at the stock price's weakness for the past month or 2.

  • The goodwill write off ($ 32 MM) involved Klipsch. They don't say which trademarks they wrote down ($22 MM). I think this write-off cannot relate to Hirschmann, so it's either Klipsch and/or older stuff. But here's the disclosure that is really troubling: "The above impairment charges were the result of various indicators that occurred during the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2014. Specifically, certain of our consumer electronic and premium audio product lines experienced significantly lower than expected performance. In addition, indications of near-term shortfalls for certain products within these lines were apparent." So don't count on things rebounding too quickly.

    And Venezuela is too small to be a problem, but I really don't understand VOXX's disclosure about the new Venezuela exchange rates. They seem inconsistent with things I have read recently from Brinks and others. But that's not the problem. The call should be fun. It would be more fun if I didn't own any VOXX.

  • Reply to

    Earnings out

    by jrad52 May 14, 2014 5:10 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 14, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    Well, $ 5/share is where I started with VOXX about a year and a half ago. Obviously, I stayed way too long.

  • jrad52 by jrad52 May 14, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Lousy results all over and a large intangible asset write-off. The write-off doesn't bother me much; the stock has been trading below book forever so I don't think anyone can be surprised that some of book value was impaired. It's kind of cute that they didn't say which (Hirsch or Klipsch) accounted for the write-off. Details in the 10-K.

  • Reply to

    Company presentations coming up

    by jrad52 May 12, 2014 4:02 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 14, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    I don't have the nerve to buy more today, although I may change my mind before the close. It's a gamble - it might be a great opportunity, or it might be like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

    Today's trading doesn't mean much to me. I figure that everyone knows that earnings are being released tonight, and that the stock has been tanking. So today's trading is just people putting 1 and 1 together, and deciding they don't want to be around for the carnage. But I'm hoping today is too late, and the stock may bounce tomorrow if it turns out the world isn't ending.

    As for tonight, the last few quarters don't really predict any disasters; business may well have been worse in Q4, but I don't see that as the cause of the steep drop in price that we've seen. Because VOXX's margins are low, there are any number of unusual items that could tank the quarter - Venezuela, some patent infringement stuff or other litigation, whatever. That wouldn't bother me so much. The only thing I can think of that would be a real issue is if they had lost a contract with a major customer, like one of the car companies. That kind of problem would go to the real value of the business.

    Anyway, my final comment - VOXX only has 22 million publicly-traded shares outstanding. The controlling family owns 2 MM of these shares, and DFA, Kahn, Blackrock, Royce and Wellington together own somewhere around 8 MM shares, leaving 12 MM shares to trade. These shareholders have pretty much held stock for a long time, so I'm guessing they haven't sold, so all the recent trading is among people who don't know any more than I do. So unless I see an SEC form that says one of these holders has said goodbye, I'm hoping the selling is overdone.

    We'll see soon enough, I guess.

  • Reply to

    Company presentations coming up

    by jrad52 May 12, 2014 4:02 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 14, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    From your mouth to god's ear, as they say.

    Anyway, there must be bad news coming tonight. I'm just hoping that the bad news is baked into the drop we've already seen.

    As to Kahn, my guess is that they buy stocks for their own account and for their clients' private accounts. Sometimes a client will tell their broker to sell a particular stock or just sell something to raise cash. So I would guess their VOXX holdings could move around a bit whatever they thought of the company. My guess is also that whoever made the decision to buy another 500,000 or 600,000 shares in Q1 now wishes he had waited a while.

  • Reply to

    Company presentations coming up

    by jrad52 May 12, 2014 4:02 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 May 13, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    I wasn't sure that was right, but it is. The Kahn Bros reduced their ownership in Voxx during 2013 from 2,317,152 shares to 1,679,342 shares. But they just filed their 3/31/14 ownership and it's up to 2,083,294 shares. I guess if I went back to Kahn's quarterly filings, I could tell how well they selling shares in 2013, but for now I'll just guess that they bought them back cheaper in Q1 2014.

    Anyway, we'll find out tomorrow night just how bad the Q was. I sure hope the problem was 1-off things like Venezuela. Or maybe that's there no problem at all.

MORT
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