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Arbor Realty Trust Inc. Message Board

jrad52 145 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jul 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Crude oil move today

    by ayscuew 18 hours ago

    More likely, NRP's CFO is still wrestling with the auditors over write-downs.

  • Reply to

    Crude oil move today

    by ayscuew 18 hours ago

    Look on the bright side. Maybe NRP made so much money in Q4 that they haven't finished counting it yet.

  • Just to put some numbers on what you said about the float on CINR being thin. CINR has 9.775 MM subordinated units, all owned by Ciner and not traded. It also has 9.775 common units outstanding, of which Ciner owns 4.775 MM. So the actual public float is only 5 MM shares. At $ 21 per unit, you're looking at a $ 100 MM investable market cap. So just about any volume will move the stock. In today's MLP debacle, the problem is see is this: the recent sale by OCI of its interest in CINR to Ciner of Turkey implied a value of about $ 27 for the public units, according to the earnings call CINR did at the time. So that's kind of the ceiling, in my view. But if they hit a bump in any of their quarterly earnings and people try to get out, there's no floor. No in this market.

    Don't get me wrong; I've owned CINR since the IPO and it's probably my best performing MLP over the past year, by a mile. But it is really tiny, and sometimes that can scare people.

  • jrad52 by jrad52 Feb 12, 2016 9:15 AM Flag

    Forgot to post yesterday about this. CINR owns 51% of Ciner Wyoming; NRP owns the other 49%.

    CINR's Q4 was almost identical to Q4 2014. The market didn't like that, and CINR dropped $ 1.50 yesterday. But as far as NRP is concerned, the distribution was stable.

    Again, whenever NRP reports, I think Q4 looks a lot like Q3, excluding the impairments and whatever year-end adjustments might be needed to the carrying value of NRP's investments.

  • Reply to

    A benefit of the deal

    by jrad52 Feb 8, 2016 7:55 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 11, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    You lost me. CVRR skipped a distribution? When? I see 76 cents in May, 98 cents in August and $ 1.01 in November, with the current distribution to be announced next week. I think it was UAN that skipped the distribution.

    UAN and RNF are fertilizer MLPs (actually, these days just about all my MLPs trade like fertilizer) and they are subject to a completely different business cycle. I was trying to compare NTI to other refiners.

    And BTW, ALDW announced today - an 8 cent distribution for Q4, down from 98 cents in November. The units got slammed, no surprise. NTI's 38 cents is looking pretty good in comparison.

  • Reply to

    BTU results

    by ayscuew Feb 11, 2016 7:44 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 11, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    I posted a reply but it has disappeared. A summary, from memory

    BTU lost $ 102 per share last year. Not a typo, just the result of the reverse split.

    BTU's Australian operations made more EBITDA in 2015 than in 2014. Although coal prices were way down, its costs were in Australian dollars which was down a whole lot. Problem for US exporters - they are competing against foreign miners with weak currencies. A big problem in met coal, where NRP is big.

    BTU's projections for Illinois Basin coal are worse than what ARLP said a week ago. It doesn't bode well for FELP (Mr. Murray is an idiot). Both ARLP and BTU basically said that the only coal they expect to sell this year is stuff that has already been contracted, and even some of that may be deferred. FELP relies almost entirely on the spot market, which apparently doesn't exist right now. I can't see FELP surviving, which kills NRP.

    NRP's guidance (I'm still guessing tomorrow, but could be tonight) will really be interesting.

  • jrad52 by jrad52 Feb 11, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    It's too confusing to post when 1 thread contains multiple topics.

    So to Vodobass - there's no explanation for today's trading (so far), with ARLP up and AHGP down. Probably just that AHGP has little volume.

  • Reply to

    ARLP

    by fredebadat Feb 10, 2016 1:22 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 11, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    Those execs didn't buy a single unit. Those were grants of restricted units that vest if they stay with ARLP 3 years. As I mentioned in another post, they basically triplled the number of grants they issued this year.

    I'd be happy to own ARLP, too, if someone would give it to me.

  • Reply to

    ARLP

    by fredebadat Feb 10, 2016 1:22 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 10, 2016 8:26 PM Flag

    What do you expect from a stock/unit that's down 70% in the last year, in a business model (MLPs) that are down about 50% in the last year and in an industry (coal) that's probably down 85% on average over the last year? people are looking for negatives and ARLP has some.

    So you're getting about 25% of today's price back as the 2016 distributions, assuming ARLP is able to maintain them. But what about the other 75% of your investment - how comfortable are you with getting that back, plus a profit? ARLP's contracted sales have declined seriously, and now (Q4) more customers are deferring contracted purchases. This is apparently due to utilities having high coal inventories because of warm weather, but it spooked ARLP enough to project the low end of 2016 sales to be equal to today's contracted 2016 sales - no incremental sales at all. As to next year (2017), 1 year ago, ARLP had contracted for the sale of 29 MM tons of coal in 2016 (1 year out from that time); in the year since then, ARLP has only been able to add about 5 MM tons of contracted volume. Today, the contracted volume for 2017 is 19 MM tons. You do the math. Unless things get a lot better really soon, 2017 is going to be really bad.

    And then, how much are you willing to bet that there won't be another democrat in the White House next year? That certainly won't help matters.

    I finally threw in the towel on ARLP and bought some back as a bet that they wouldn't cut the distribution. I was right and made a few bucks. Then I got greedy and only sold half my units so once again I'm sitting with a loss, although it isn't very large.

    Anyway, at some point MLPs and maybe ARLP are a buy. But I'm willing to wait until I see some proof of a recovery before I commit more money.

  • ARLP and its execs have just started filing Forms 4 with the SEC to record the restricted units that have been granted this year. They vest in 3 years if the exec is still with the company.

    Basically, ARLP has tripled the number of restricted units it has granted to each employee. Unscientific survey - I checked the first 6 forms filed and compared them to last year. The interested part is that it seems the employees have not left. Pretty much the same people that got grants last year also received them this year.

    So Mr Cantrell, CFO, last year was granted 13,424 restricted units. On the date of the grant, ARLP closed at $ 37.19, so ARLP thought it was paying him $ 500,000 (plus distributions). This year, he received a grant of 39,300 restricted units. On the date of the grant, ARLP closed at $ 14.03 so the total value of the grant was $ 550,000, plus distributions. Same for other guys I happened to see.

    Nothing to invest on. Just news about our company.

  • jrad52 jrad52 Feb 10, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    ARLP went ex last week but AHGP went ex today. That accounts for about half od AHGP's drop today.

  • Reply to

    K-1?

    by neverinvested Feb 9, 2016 3:50 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 9, 2016 7:07 PM Flag

    I replied several hours ago but it seems my post has been deleted. ARLP's K-1 is estimated to be available on Feb 22 at K-1 support. You won't get it thru your broker.

  • Reply to

    Earnings out

    by jrad52 Feb 9, 2016 5:35 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 9, 2016 7:05 PM Flag

    Things at TV have apparently gotten worse since the 10-K was filed 2 months ago.

    BRT has changed the disclosure a little. Maybe significant, maybe not.

    In the 10-K, BRT said the Newark JV was discussing with a lender the possible repayment of the $ 19.5 MM owed to BRT. Now they add the words “repayment over time”. So no immediate likelihood of getting the cash.

    The minimum amount projected to finish the NJV has risen $ 1 MM since the 10-K.

    In the 10-K, BRT said that the NJV needed $ 2.7 MM - $ 6.7 MM over the next 9 months that would require additional debt or equity contributions from the partners. Now the amount needed over the next 9 months has risen to between $ 6.5 MM and $ 9.5 MM, still to be raised by debt or equity contributions.

    So in 2 months, things in Newark have gotten worse.

    As you said, FFO and Adjusted FFO is improving, but BRT is still such a tiny operator that I'm not that interested. They need to do a big deal - preferably exit the NJV profitably.

    I didn't see an income statement for the Newark JV in the 10-Q, but they included one in the 10-K and the Newark JV produces a loss at the FFO and net income level. FFO was running at a loss of about $ 1 MM per quarter, before minority interests. If that is still true, getting out of the JV would really boost FFO.

  • and no comment at all about Newark.

    Maybe in the 10-Q, but since they raised the issue last Q, they should have given an update. I assume this means that not only did they not close Newark within Q1, they also haven't gotten close yet.

  • Reply to

    Reporting date

    by ayscuew Feb 9, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 9, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    Could be. The last 2 years, the release was on Feb 12, and the 2 years before that the date was Feb 13 and Feb 14. So the 11th sounds a little early. I thought this year's release would be a day or 2 later than last year to give the accountants more time to vet the books since 2015 was a pretty complicated year. But maybe it's tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    A benefit of the deal

    by jrad52 Feb 8, 2016 7:55 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 9, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    At today's WNR price, the value of the deal to NTI unit holders is $ 23.09 plus the 38 cent distribution. So NTI is trading slightly above the offer.

    Just about all the refiners are being punished today, and I suspect WNR is being punished for the debt it will take on in the NTI deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see WNR try to renegotiate the price based on "changed market circumstances". I don't trust them.

    And even if NTI's price were to tank temporarily, I'd still be in favor of letting the deal die. I think NTI can generate an average annual distribution of at least $ 3 per unit, and that would be worth more to me than the value of the offer.

    FWIW.

  • I have no skin in this game any more, but something occurred to me today. There are 4 refinery MLPs - ALDW, CLMT, CVRR and NTI.

    NTI's first deal was announced before the open on Oct 25. Since that open, NTI is up 1.8%, including the distribution that was paid after Oct 25. Over the same period, ALDW is down 26.4%, CLMT is down 41%, and CVRR is down 26.6%. All of those returns include the distributions that were paid during Q4.

    NTI's adjusted deal was announced on Dec 22; I don't remember the time of day the announcement was made. But since Dec 22, NTI is down 8.5%, ALDW is down 26.7%. CLMT is down 25.9% and CVRR is down 25.7%. Only CLMT and NTI have announced the upcoming distribution - CLMT held it flat (they always try to maintain a steady distribution) and NTI obviously slashed its distribution. ALDW and CVRR are expected to cut their distributions.

    So the 1 benefit of the WNR deal is the $ 15 cash piece of the offer, which has helped to establish a floor for NTI unit price in the current MLP massacre. Without the offer, I suspect we'd be looking at a price in the high teens.

    Of course, there's always time for WNR to lower the offer and for NTI's independent directors to recommend that offer as well. I don't know if WNR has signed the financing for the $ 1.4 billion cash portion of the offer.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by jrad52 Feb 6, 2016 7:46 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Feb 7, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    Wow, I didn't think anyone followed BRT on this board.

    I think the loan from Gould was clearly predicated on a sale of Teachers Village since the due date accelerates if the sale happens before May.

    As to the dividend, I don't own enough BRT to care about getting a few dollars. But BRT is a really tiny company to start with and doesn't get much coverage. Actually it doesn't get any coverage that I'm aware of. Throw in the fact that it hasn't paid a dividend in years and I don't know who would want to invest money to follow the company.

    Hopefully we'll see/hear more this week.

  • I have posted that I track the [price of regular gas at the SuperAmerica station in Minnetonka. Today it dropped to $ 1.49 per gallon. Excluding Federal and MN taxes, that's $ 1.02 per gallon to the station. That is almost 30% less than the station charged for regular on December 31.

    I realize it's only 1 station, and it's only regular (no one on gas buddy is reporting the price of mid grade or premium). Also, there are 4 other stations in Minnetonka charging $ 1.49 for regular so maybe this is only a temporary price war.

    I sold my NTI a few weeks ago so my interest is pretty academic right now. But I'm not expecting much good news in the earnings release. Maybe intentional, maybe not. But I don't think the people who are against the deal are going to get much ammunition from the call. Good luck, though.

  • jrad52 by jrad52 Feb 6, 2016 7:46 PM Flag

    Should be out early this week, based on the last few years' release dates.

    It was disappointing to read of the new multi-family properties being purchased. Not because I have anything against those properties, but because BRT didn't announce anything about the sale of Newark Teachers Village. I assume that the announcement about the purchases and silence on Teachers Village means they didn't work out a deal to sell, which I was hoping for and which is why I purchased a few shares of BRT recently.

    But they will have to say something when they release, I guess, so maybe there has been progress. Becoming self-managed is good but a REIT that hasn't paid a dividend in years is a dead end. I was hoping that the sale of TV would eat up some of BRT's $ 65 MM NOL carryover and get them a tiny bit closer to paying a dividend.

    But at $ 5.70, I can't complain yet.. We'll have to wait and see what they say.

ABR
6.05+0.01(+0.17%)Feb 12 4:01 PMEST