Today I was wondering when 'they' were going to turn bullish on this fully flogged sector, it's a train wreck, values are on the floor everywhere you look. It's been downright depressing, almost as bad as having a toothache and needing that emergency root canal or just take the damn thing out! Seriously, this has been painful there's no getting around it. Hold is all you can do, or with dry powder, add to your sunk capital and risk losing more. The pain train is about to leave the station, getting a new destination?
Just as I called out last week, the market maker brought it down to fill the gap at 1.23, so we saw some trades completed at 1.22 and 1.23 (I picked up another 1,000 shares @ 1.23 as well) before they take it back up. Now ask is 1.27 with a few hopeful buyers still bidding 1.23. Now that the gap is closed, we should gradually move back up to respectable ranges for a Company with an emerging technology and the insurance coverage nexessary to monetize their tests.
One thing to point out is higher lows and higher highs for the last 5 weeks or so, along with the high volatility we've become used to seeing. Gains are swiftly sold but on retracement there has been accumulation every time. If investors can stomach the ride, we are gradually heading higher. Unpleasant yes, trending higher also yes. IMO-2125 is emerging as the bright light going forward. 3GY not showing up as a driver of growth yet. "Too early to tell" is what applies here across the pipeline. Keepin the faith in what remains unseen, and undervalued, assigning high credibility to what Baker Brothers, MD Anderson, GSK, and our management team have identified as reasons to be here and stay here.
Hugh, you have it right, IBB is down 63.87% from last July and if you take the average price of IDRA in July, 2015 say at $3.50, and Friday's closing price of $1.99, IDRA has underperformed IBB and is down 56.85%. If you take 92% of 63.87% you get 58.7%. Close enough, I'd say.
I was looking at Marinus' action independent of the rest of the market. If MRNS can dance to it's own music unaffected by the sector ETF's and broad market. Friday's action could be the beginning of a reset upward in the price of its shares.
What do you think will happen to the IBB and sector in the next 3-6 months? When Biospeculator2014 was actively posting here and on the IDRA board, he specifically called out 120 as the downside target for IBB within the next year.
Exactly. That was confirmed by a phone call l made to Lisa in IR about a month ago, she said they don't have the data and won't anytime soon, only indicating as you say, IH '16.
There's a bearish footnote here, as provided by the technical perspective of The Chart Pattern Trader where I have a subscription. He cautions that we have met resistance at the trendline and that we are about to see 2,3 or 4 weeks of selling pressure on our indexes, before the rally would continue (or not) up toward S&P500 2080 or 2100, thus filling the gap at 2063. Once there, taking perhaps as long as into May-June, he sees a protracted drop with a target of 1575 sometime in the fall. He is forecasting the FED to raise rates in June and September.
Our last parabolic move blasted off the 3rd TEST of a $4.00 bottom, occurring on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th of March, culminating Monday the 7th of March when it topped out at 6.46 intra-day, closing at $5.95. Since then, we sold off to the mid $4's, and traded mostly sideways with two higher lows, in the range of 4.39-5.23. We ended the week at the 5.22 level, one cent lower than the day's high.
We made some good progress however, regaining a close above the 50-dma (5.11) with price closing above the 5-day ema (4.99), which today crossed above the 13-day ema (4.93). The slow stochastic is pointed up now having just crossed over the signal line at 32.87 with a rising RSI and bullish MACD and positive histogram. All oscillators/indicators look poised to deliver us a week of out-sized gains. The IBB and XBI appear to have re-consolidated, giving us their wind at our backs. Looking for $6.50 as a one- week target.
Now, that's what I see today, it's good until proven wrong. It is a bullish call, absent a catalyst, so anything can happen. The short attack on Sage this week proved to be a positive for our stock. What lay in wait for us next week?
Disclosure: I am long Marinus stock. This post is for entertainment purposes and not to be relied upon as a reason to buy shares. Happy Easter everyone, good luck in your investments.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Finn, it's so true, your post shows great understanding and faith, I'd have given you five stars right now if permitted, Happy Easter!
The chart is stair stepping up, and another step is going to happen soon. Keep adding, this is as close to a sure thing in biotech as anything at Phase III with a huge market if approved.
Bravo, good post seconded, Happy SAFE Easter to all, may the terrorists rot in hell and their families be left to starve without them.
Very interesting, and a year ago the price was $9.25 with more downside than now by quite a margin, yet the sentiment then versus now was quite different, so the short trade now is built around bearish sentiment rather than fundamentals. Shorts are betting on failed trial outcomes or just the blanket "it's biotech, go short" theme.
There's a small gap left in the chart at 1.23 from the last two days in February when it opened higher than the previous day. I suspect the MM is looking to close this gap before taking it higher. I added 2,000 shares today at 1.26 now it's a penny lower. Maybe next week we'll see this reverse and head back higher? Good luck.
Thanks Ranger, good stuff. I notice Sage is putting on a couple bucks this morning and the whole bio sector has rallied in the last half hour. So, my hopes are that biotech, still down roughly 35% since IBB and XBI and $BTK fell into the trough, that even if oil or the broad market indexes are weak, that our fully beaten up sector makes a counter trend rally and recovers some of our lost mojo. How do you see it?
Using stock as capital is what enabled Valeant to grow so fast, but I think it's a bad idea, look at them now. The market doesn't like that roll up strategy. If they would just stay the course to a degree, pay down some debt, I'm good with buying some of their stock at these levels.
Bblls, I agree, most of us do, but most avoid coming here after such a #$%$ day, it brings hatred to the forefront when a stock you have fully embraced gets abused by the Wall Street system. Your readership would increase if you kept your posting classy like you've said before, rather than resorting to the 'fn' profanity. Your sentiments are right on, your delivery is raw ugly LOL.
For sure was a rough day for biotech. Begs the question as to whether biotech has found a support zone at IBB 241? Acad dropped plus 10%!
Mert, we are sadly disappointed that BIOC got further hammered today, so unpredictable, and after all their good news on the insurance coverage and their revenue growth. Blood biopsy is going to be huge but is still being adopted. TROV with their urine biopsy has had some recent share price excitement, but the market has skipped over BIOC. I like you, am holding a loss on my shares, and am looking for this to reverse course sometime soon before I get more exposed to negative equity in my position.
I'm in the camp of sick with this pattern. At this rate, both GALE and MNKD may yet outperform IDRA in this year. The short trade here is not to be underestimated.