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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Message Board

jrdelane 622 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 16 minutes ago Member since: Dec 5, 2011
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  • jrdelane jrdelane Jan 12, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    Thanks Aldridge, your voice is always appreciated here. It looks like we're getting a reprieve here today, off that support in the IBB, XBI. even $RUT is staging a strong day, hope we can extend it and look back to see this early January drop as just a nasty correction. Time will tell. IDRA up four pennies at the moment. My HZNP was up 10% a few minutes ago, now 8.3%. SGEN is back up 6.3% as I write this.

  • Reply to

    Overdone! 25% in 5 days, 40% in 1 month.

    by sneaky_dna Jan 11, 2016 3:22 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    Welbie, forget Bio, anyone who sold at or over $4 has escaped the halving of this stock. If that trader now buys back shares, still believing in the science, they can own twice the number of shares at half the price. That is a win win, instead of being here holding a bag, yes, that was a smart decision. Remove the personality and look at the facts, and tone down your bright light, I am still invested here, he is not.

  • Utilities and consumer staples have been the only two sectors spared in this route of 2016 to date. What I have noticed is often we get these huge down days on a Monday, usually preceded by a hard down Friday. Mondays seem to be reserved for the capitulation day trades. Today IBB hit the intra-day support of 285 today and closed at 291.65 (-10.51), it's lowest close since November 14-17 2014, when it closed at 288 (Friday - Monday). That could be it for this leg down, or it could resume and drop to the 270-280 level.

    Also $BTK which is the NYSE Biotechnology Index went to support of prior lows made last October also November 17 2014 closing low = 3263 and closed off it's lows by a decent margin (intra-day low = 3232, close = 3299) for a -4% day.

    XBI closed -5.57% at 57.14, for its lowest close since December 2014. Support there is nearby at the 55 level dating back to September - October of 2014.

    I wouldn't be surprised if after today's rout, we see some kind of recovery rally which could last days, weeks, or who knows. If so, depending on what you believe, you can use the rally (if we get it) to lighten or add to your positions, . In the Baker Brothers portfolio, they had 6 stocks that were marginally up today, one was DYAX awaiting closure of buyout, and a couple that closed even, but the rest of their portfolio was down big red. They had max pain today as did we.

    IONS was down 11.76% today at 50.16, off $6.69 for the day. Comparing to IDRA off 11.9% (-$0.30 loss) on the day. Comparing market caps, IONS = $6.03 Billion, IDRA = $262.74 Million. Interesting they command a multiple of valuation that is 22.95 times our valuation and Sudhir Agrawal created their platform and sold it for pennies on the dollar.

  • Reply to

    Overdone! 25% in 5 days, 40% in 1 month.

    by sneaky_dna Jan 11, 2016 3:22 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    We hit 4.40 on data release and today we were at 2.12 intraday. We've been halved Sneaky, not fun. Even Biospeculator's 2.50 was too generous, he was the smart one.

  • Reply to

    Gap to fill

    by pepsiberger Jan 11, 2016 1:19 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    That's a big error, effectively bashed the stock during the weakest hours of a capitulation type day, hope some didn't throw their shares away when they read your post. I know better, still holding.

  • jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    VA, I hope you're right that today was the capitulation trade and we can get on with it, thanks for your support on my other post today, much appreciated. While I did lighten at 3.33 I still hold an out-sized position here, but also have my daughters invested and they will have sooner need of their appreciated account values before I will. It's hard to see this company get so little respect, undifferentiated as it is, getting thrown under the bus with all developmental biotech stocks, as the XBI and IBB mine new lows.

  • Second on our list is a Zacks Rank #1 stock – Horizon Pharma HZNP – a biotechnology company, which focuses on areas like arthritis, pain, inflammatory and orphan diseases. This Dublin, Ireland based company has products like Vimovo, Duexis, Actimmune and Rayos.

    The company has been quite active on the acquisition front over the past few quarters. Last year, the company acquired Hyperion Therapeutics in a deal valued at about $1.1 billion. This deal has allowed Horizon to strengthen its position in the orphan disease market with the addition of a couple of urea cycle disorder drugs to its portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Shaking the trees for shares one last time...

    by godawgs_428 Jan 11, 2016 10:37 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 1:41 PM Flag

    I cannot add more, must use available dollars to pay the taxes due from last year's gains. So, meanwhile, it sucks. Looks like we're getting a bit of a bounce in here at 2.18 after 2.12 printed. I don't think it's wrong to post angst or frustration, so stop hitting me for it, maybe I need some encouragement, like others here.

  • Reply to

    Shaking the trees for shares one last time...

    by godawgs_428 Jan 11, 2016 10:37 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    2 hours later the market answered my own question, down another .15 on the day at 2.24 with no support or bounce. When I asked if this time was different, XBI and IBB are NOT looking like they will find support (XBI has already gone lower than it was last year on the big breaks) and the broad market is in the claws of the bear. Schwab put out an opinion last week to avoid the temptation of getting into the biotechnology sector which is oversold but can continue to be oversold. RSI can stay oversold. I like IDRA's science Welbie.

  • Reply to

    Slide 40/43 on the JPM Presentation

    by travelingfam4 Jan 11, 2016 9:02 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    FYI, IONS is trading today down 7.96% at 52.02 with market cap of $6.24 billion. Our market cap is $275 million today. It is a flattering comparison and undeniable, given Agrawal created both generations, one in the market, one in the clinic. TIME getting this in development with proof of concept and in human trials is where the gap lies, defined as risk.

  • Reply to

    Shaking the trees for shares one last time...

    by godawgs_428 Jan 11, 2016 10:37 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 11, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    We are down $2.00 a share people, from our highs post data. 2.39 now, last August intraday we touched 2.27. Is this time different? Will we find support and bounce or continue to fade?

  • Reply to

    AUPH will see $8 soon.

    by theironbull7 Dec 18, 2015 11:58 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 9, 2016 10:24 PM Flag

    Wow, can you imagine playing in that kind of cold, like 1 degree plus expected wind chill. Reminds me of biotech investing kind of pain tolerance!

  • Reply to

    Revenue Multiples

    by samiam3939 Jan 9, 2016 9:39 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 9, 2016 10:01 PM Flag

    This really helps longs know why to not cave into the market driven fears.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations call with Doody today

    by jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 4:15 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    Good email, thanks MGM. As a group of loyal investors who care about our Company and the well being of our board members, I am proud of us for the degree of character building we've suffered together. We didn't come here for that, but we've had to endure a couple years of torturous price swings as holders and it takes it's toll emotionally, and unless you traded you have no return on investment during that time (most likely a paper loss). Baker Brothers are in the same boat these last two years, but their hedge fund has added $4 billion of valuation in the last 3 years and they got in way cheaper on their early shares and warrants than any of us. Retail cannot outlast holders like this, so we need to see a return or sooner or later we leave. Timing is important. For all holders reading this, 2016-2017 looks like it's going to finally give us our due. If not, many of us won't be here is my prediction.

  • Reply to

    RSI ANALYSIS - NOW VERY OVERSOLD!!

    by biotesticle2014 Jan 8, 2016 10:15 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 10:49 PM Flag

    I gave you a green thumb for your post. You do inspire me at times, there's good in you, plain to see. Just clean up your issue and you know what I'm talking about. That post of mine didn't get all those green thumbs and comments for nothing. I hope you are right, this rout has been overdone.

  • Reply to

    Today will be a very good day for HZNP

    by peanutbutter30079 Jan 8, 2016 6:26 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 10:40 PM Flag

    When you posted this futures were up and that was to draw more retail money into the sector before they took it down. I have a feeling this is going to continue for a while, until there's a capitulation by retail and along behind them we get the big guys vacuuming up all the shares. Sell the rallies if you don't trust the market, at least to keep a comfortable amount of cash on the sidelines. This is getting plain ugly.

  • jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 10:36 PM Flag

    Great to hear this, we need confirmation that the sector won't simply reset valuations, that's what it feels like, look at what we are selling for, LCI, and also DEPO, it's pathetic the valuations we carry. Biotech, developmental biotech, is getting crushed which leads me to this commentary. I do think in 2015 and now 2016 the biotech sector has been reset to lower valuations, just page through the charts and look at them, practically everything has been decimated and most stocks are at 52 week lows or close to it.

  • I called just to wish Bob and his team all the best going into next week. It will be his 10th JPM conference, and there's a lot of excitement in the company right now as they make final preparations. He wouldn't answer any questions about what will be revealed next week, of course. When I asked him if the share price was de-motivating to insiders, he said people instead focus on what they're working on and that companies that try to operate around moving their share price higher make mistakes, it's not that way at Idera. Between BB's and Pillar, the Company is owned (warrants) more than 50% by institutions, without regard to others. There isn't really anything to report of substance from my call, but he answered his phone right away, gotta like how he handles his role, very approachable and professional.

  • Reply to

    STML

    by frankyassissi Jan 8, 2016 1:56 PM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 4:07 PM Flag

    I am invested there and the only thing I don't like is the share price but at lease it isn't continuing to fall like IDRA which has lost $1.80 plus since the data release. Their cash position is strong, and the results of their SL-401 compound as revealed at ASH yielded a 71% objective response, with a significant number of CR's. They too will be presenting at ASH. I may see a sooner return of my money with a good profit there than here in IDRA, we'll see.

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan Conference

    by travelingfam4 Dec 10, 2015 7:33 AM
    jrdelane jrdelane Jan 8, 2016 3:57 PM Flag

    I didn't say shorts have increased, only that they have control over the stock price at will. As I write this, we are trading at 2.52. Sickening.

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