We are so strongly correlated with IBB that we don't trade on our own metrics. That is down hard, so are we. Until the ER we are in lock step with what is going on in the sector, and it's upsetting. The top ten stocks in their holdings are getting crushed, same with XBI. One of these funds has HZNP, it must be why.
Your discussion of XBI has prompted me to chime in. That ETF is off its July high by 44.5% and may be forming a short term bottom at or near present levels, in the same way that our broad market indexes are now carving out a technical (short-term?) bottom. No one can know what lies ahead but the biotech sector is already in a bear market, and yes, it could get worse. That is one reason to own a Company like HZNP, that has a growth trajectory unlike any other in the sector. As their revenues get confirmed going forward, the stock has to grow. It is defensively postured to a degree, more so than developmental biotech, pure R&D without revenues. I enjoy your posts, good luck!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Ranger, you made a killing on AVXL and here it is back at $0.90 pre-split, I heard you are back in. Is this compelling? One of my friends just went in BIG and is looking for a repeat. What level of risk accompanies the stock at these levels with what is known now, in your opinion? I took a position at this price, but may add to it, downside risk seems limited based on prior DD, has anything changed other than the short position?
I added 1,000 shares today in the morning at 17.66 but missed the late day discount, darn! Futures up already, Facebook crushes it and their stock responds by being up 12% AH! That's us in a couple weeks, but I do see some fast recovery in the morning. Great comments Geri, the original Postbusters! Can't help but think of Mike, miss you Mike!
After AAPL disappointed on guidance with record revenues, and today dropped 6.57%, now it's FB to the rescue. This drop today in the broad market was not unexpected (part of the broad market manipulation to shake out weak hands) and in my view, with oil adding to it's recovery today, Fed disappointment out of the way, we are at support, and potentially will get the relief rally that has been missing all month.
Biotech is screwed to the floor it seems but ready to show signs of life. Good to see IDRA holding its own today against the strong headwinds. Sellers are exhausted, I'm sure we lost some more from our ranks this week, there is so much on sale and a lot of compelling companies. It may come down to which horse is best suited to recover the fastest, because everyone has lost capital?
"They EXPECT 2 3GA targets and compounds PER YEAR for the next few years---" so, what does this really mean? They enter trials for 2 per year, hoping for partners for each indication? Are they preferring to keep these 2 per year for themselves, and if new trials, investors need to ramp up the burn rate? How does one compute shareholder value from early stage goals for new trials of an unproven nature in humans? 3gA is still in the clinic and has not been shown to be a proven platform other than in mice. Not bashing, just need to understand the positive milestone metric.
Two questions horse, one--what is the 'one cent swing? two--we left a big gap when they announced insurance coverage last week, 3.35 to 3.96. I think there's a chance the MM will attempt to fill that gap, and today was the perfect chance with the spike down in the IBB, but alas, it still exists and is a worry for longs. Your thoughts?
Add to the mix another one like these two, GALE, try to draw some comparisons as they are all in race. I cannot help compare the science, but Tauhydrae may be of some help? He owns both TPIV and GALE. Good discussion, PBYI seems like it is propped up in value, wonder why?
I added 3,000 shares this week, my only new shares since the WM data. I am done adding to a losing position, and this qualifies. I will mentally segregate these shares from the rest of my portfolio, and hold for the maturation of the pipeline, as disturbing as this is to me because I had a goal for this stock's growth that is out the window.
The reading on this improved so far this week to 4.06 from 3.69 yesterday, yet we closed down a penny. The indicator measures the inflow or outflow of money in a stock, seems we've had some large sellers after the WM data release. Readings below 20 indicate oversold, and over 80 overbought. Readings below 10 are rare and unsustainable, according to what I've read. A reading of 3.69-4.09 has only been seen in IDRA four times in the last 10 years--August 2007, July 2009, October 2010, and now. If you are unsure about adding shares in here, even this indicator can't make any hard and fast conclusions. The stock could recover some and then take another dive, and the index would in effect be free to peg this same low again at a lower price level. Today's spike down hit 1.63, did anyone score some shares?
MGM, he later posted that he "flatted his trade" and sold out, saying sometimes it's better to 'flat' the trade than stand to lose. He correctly second guessed his trade and has no position, if he bought in today he'd have announced it. I added a small lot today at 1.70, only to see it fall further later on, then rebound near the close.
Maybe Maxim showed up again today, the morning trade was likely influenced by the sharp drop and recovery in the IBB and other biotech indexes. Was a good day to be a buyer with plenty of cash.
While Catabasis (Nasdaq: CATB) did not report any evidence showing how effective the drug is yet in the boys, the first part of the Phase 1/2 trial showed the boys, who range in ages from 4 to 7, all tolerated daily doses of it for a week without an significant side effects. The company says that it plans to enroll even more patients (about 24-30 boys total) in the second part of the trial, expected to begin by summer, which is aimed at showing how well the drug slows down muscle degeneration in the boys.
Jill Milne is CEO of Cambridge-based Catabasis Pharmaceuticals.
As of 11 a.m. today after the news was announced, Catabasis shares were up more than 8 percent to $6.31.
The lack of side effects so far is notable considering that the Food and Drug Administration just rejected another potential drug for the disease owned by BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BMRN) largely on the basis of its side effects, which included painful rashes at the injection side of the drug. The drug called CAT-1004, discovered by Catabasis seven years ago, comes as a pill and combines two common chemicals: salicylate, which is related to aspirin, and DHA, a naturally-occurring omega 3 fatty acid.
CATB (Catabasis Pharmaceuticals), they are into a Phase 1-2 for DMD with their drug CAT-104 for DMD, part A released this month, plan to initiate part B in mid-2016. Their stock trading today at 6.24, was 5.25 a week ago.
Short Vol. Long Vol Total Vol Short%
2016-01-25 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 363204 479578 842782 43
2016-01-22 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 366726 291284 658010 56
2016-01-21 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 310291 537985 848276 37
2016-01-20 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 745471 1122949 1868420 40
2016-01-19 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 1189278 772124 1961402 61
2016-01-15 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 717658 369271 1086929 66
2016-01-14 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 555519 569639 1125158 49
2016-01-13 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 400414 369475 769889 52
2016-01-12 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 473319 312596 785915 60
2016-01-11 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 679769 483543 1163312 58
2016-01-08 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 566263 272550 838813 68
2016-01-07 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 648952 483896 1132848 57
2016-01-06 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 365967 360173 726140 50
2016-01-05 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 280340 227254 507594 55
2016-01-04 ARRY Array Biopharma Inc 583095
For Atrs, this qualifies as a breakout of the death spiral it's been in since dropping below $2.00. For all patient longs here, I hope this is just the beginning. I hold no position here.