% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access., inc. Message Board

jrednib 322 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 14, 2013 9:26 AM Member since: Dec 27, 2005
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • jrednib jrednib Oct 14, 2013 9:26 AM Flag

    They will supply new equipment and it's in the roadmap of the large cable cos. Problem is that boxes are expensive so they are replaced only at the rate of attrition (end of life) at a rate of a few percent per year. Will take at least a decade to refresh the entire STB deployed base with ones that can handle NFLX in the MSO Eco-system, and by then, every TV will be smart three times over.

  • jrednib jrednib Oct 14, 2013 9:21 AM Flag

    When the press figures out that a deal, unlikely as it may be, means nothing, because there aren't any boxes to support it, it will be interesting to see how the market responds. The reason NFLX is successful is precisely because the cable system is made up of QAM boxes that don't support IP services such as NFLX.

  • Nearly all of the 200+ Million Set Top Boxes DO NOT and Can't support pure IP services such as NFLX. These boxes are MPEG 2, not even MPEG 4 and have no Web 2.0 interface capability. Even if NFLX were to get a deal with every MSO in North America, there would be only several million devices rolled out annually that could support NFLX. Compared to the 10s of millions of smart TVs, this current notion of discussions is meaningless in scheme of NFLXs trajectory - good or bad.

    More pressing for NFLX is the idea that cable industry will launch its own NFLX competition making it available on Roku and other smart devices and TVs, giving it away to premium customers and charging non customers and non premium customers. This really damage NFLX overnight, especially given MSOs have a massive amount of content buying power compared to NFLX.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Rumors have the cable industry joining forces with Comcast to deliver a NFLX competitor over the top for free or as a bundled service to subscribers, eliminating the need for NFLX. While the details are uncertain, what is certain is that Smart TVs and Companion devices are under levered by cable. They will get there act together, and this is going to bode poorly for NFLX in the mid-term, or even as soon as some sort of formal product is announced.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Interesting article about how in recent weeks, international companies have been shunning US based cloud providers. This could have a major and lasting effect on growth internationally for CRM. After all, having the US government with access to a company's sales pipeline is something most companies would rather avoid if possible. While this will take some time to work through the stock, it is definitely a mid-term macro-negative for CRM and the space as a whole.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NFLX has done an amazing job of monetizing the VoD tier - something MSOs planned to do long ago, but were unable to due a variety of factors. The primary limiter, besides vision, for MSOs, was the sunk cost in CPE (Set Tops). Legacy CPE is incapable of rendering a Web 2.0 NFLX like experience.

    This is changing and changing fast. Comcast has both X1 and X2 platforms which arguably offer a far better experience than NFLX, and given the breadth of content they have, are far better library as well. Dish, Direct and the rest of the tier 1 MSOs won't be far behind, and the lead that NFLX has, is diminishing as we speak. Comcast alone has nearly one fourth of pay TV subscribers as customers. That will mean that 25% of NFLXs base will be at risk over the next 2-3 years. The same will be true of Direct et al. Many of these "Movie" services offered by MSOs will be FoD or Free On Demand. Why pay for movies in the center of the video store when you can get them for free.

    Bottom line, NFLX has very likely peaked as a company, and will see the likes of competitive pressures heretofore never seen. No amount of original content can save the day for NFLX - and that game is fraught with peril. This is probably a $100 stock and maybe less when the MSO community rolls out next generation CPE - and its coming far sooner than you think!

    Disclosure - Short NFLX Shares and Call Options

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NFLX continues to stack its balance sheet with huge actual and off balance sheet liabilities for content. NFLX knows it must differentiate in order to survive as advanced services from Comcast (the newly announced X2) and DISH (the Hopper) make NFLX obsolete for many customers. Unfortunately, NFLX can't drive the ARPU necessary to pay for the content it's acquiring, and its gambling that the shows it's buying will be hits (even the best networks have many flops, sometimes droughts that last years - NBC for instance). Moreover, it lacks the power of a linear channel to deliver the potent lead-ins that drive viewership. FInally, binge viewing is a fad, not unlike what we say in the early days of DVD sell through.

    As such, this recent run up is a gift for those who have been long, and those who now want to get short. It's entirely possible that we will end up back well sub $100 in less than a year's time - after the market fully assesses the power of the transformation occurring in cable, and the lackluster earnings as a result of continued acceleration in the cost and breadth of NFLX's content library.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Earnings can't justify this price at any reasonably predicted level, and the sell off will be quick and brutal..a la Apple.

  • Reply to

    Major Increase in Guidance Coming...?

    by jrednib Mar 11, 2013 2:24 PM
    jrednib jrednib Mar 11, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

    We might actually see F close well above $14 this week, which will put a major squeeze in play given the massive accumulation of $13-$14 strikes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Estimates for Q1 range from .36-.46, with consensus at ~.40. However, if you match guidance in revenue and FCF vs. Jan/Feb sales numbers, it would appear that F will significantly outperform even the highest estimates. Adjusting for unchanged guidance for Europe, as details are less available, it would appear F could post .58 cents for Q1. This would translate into a ~35% increase from current levels, or a roughly $18.50 stock price - the former cycle high. If you assume some significant short covering, this update to guidance or announcement could propel the stock past $20 without much resistance. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an upgrade to the outlook well before the April announcement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We are going to see the rally of all rallies going into March expiration. With $15 calls at ~$.04, the short covering melt up could be viscous!

    "Ford Motor Co. said vehicle sales in China almost doubled last month from a year ago, led by demand for its best-selling Focus sedan.
    The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker sold 61,475 passenger cars and commercial vehicles last month wholesale in China, a 98 percent increase from a year ago, the company said in an e-mailed statement. Passenger vehicle sales surged 135 percent to 44,439 and commercial deliveries increased 42 percent to 17,128 units."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ford will post strong results and a blow-out forecast for '13. Stock could easily rally $3-4 on this news. Fasten seat belts...should be $20 by March expiration.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CRM is a good company, with tremendous cash generating potential. The problem is that the market is valuing the company at nearly 40x FCF, when 15x FCF would be a more appropriate number. This is especially true as the law of big numbers takes hold, and CRM is faced with losing many o its SMBs to new and existing players and the functionality differences between one CRM player and another at that level are irrelevant. Stated another way, pricing pressure is inevitable in the low end of the market where CRM gets much of its mojo. A fair price for CRM is in the $50-$65 range and once cap gains harvesting begins in a few days the sell off could begin. On the other hand, NFLX was evidence that a squeeze can go on for a long time, although in this case, I doubt the squeeze will last much longer.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Price action combined with broad based insider selling is setting CRM up for a NFLX like fall. A rational multiple for this stock is ~ 22x. As such, even accepting the company's guidance, it is entirely reasonable to expect the stock to trade down as much as 66% from here to move in line with a more rational multiple. TIming is unclear, but a first leg down is still likely before year's end.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Expect earnings to plateau around $1.30, which may take several more quarters to play out. MSFT, Oracle will continue to put marketshare pressure on CRM, as well as ASP erosion. At a

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • jrednib by jrednib Nov 8, 2012 11:54 AM Flag

    By almost any measure this is a $50 stock. Sales are peaking, competition is rising, and the valuation is reminiscent of NFLX. A break below below $140 will take CRM quickly to $110, and unless earnings shine well being the most rosiest of forecasts, continued weakness will ensue. Time horizon for move to $50 is 4-9 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When you adjust for the model transition of Fusion, and the Ranger retirement - these numbers were 3X GM gains for the month. This really points to an extraordinary Q4, with the model mix very strong, and cost savings attributable to Ranger showing up as we move forward. This model mix could be just the potion F needs to breakout on the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Expect to see F close ~$20 by March options expiration as a massive short squeeze ensues. Blowout Q4 numbers and massively improved guidance will lift the stock and drive out the shorts in droves. F is on its way to $40 by year's end.

  • MSFT wants to continue to grow XBox penetration, and the addition of NFLX could be justified at price as high as $210-215. The addition of NFLX to the XBox live subscription rolls, would make MSFT the unabashed alternative OTT service provider. Stay tuned - I expect the bidders to emerge at this valuation, recognizing that at least a 70-90% premium would need to be paid, and MSFT seems to be the most likely bidder.

  • Euro rally, S&P rally and rate rise all favor F today. Euro rally will help to improve euro earnings and may signal a bottom in the EU crisis. Expect $12 by early next week and a rip your face off rally to $15 by end of month.

75.80+0.42(+0.56%)Apr 29 4:01 PMEDT