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SandRidge Permian Trust Message Board

jrfillion 472 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Dec 13, 2006
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  • Thanks Jeffery for the oilprice site; it does provide energy futures for several years. Current high is about $50 for oil and 3.3 for NG. Not all that good really. I think ARP has already locked in much higher prices through 2017; but I could be wrong.

  • Reply to

    Time to Lock in Hedges

    by donnapurplegirl99 Apr 22, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion 10 hours ago Flag

    OK got it; was on wrong site; oilprice is the right site.

  • Reply to

    Time to Lock in Hedges

    by donnapurplegirl99 Apr 22, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion 10 hours ago Flag

    OK; I go to finviz and get the colored block chart; I select Nat Gas and get the chart; but I see no option choices at top of chart; at top of page I see "FUTURES"; if I click it, it takes me back to colored block chart??? Are you at a different site? Do I need to pay the $24.95 to have interactive? Something don't jive.

  • Reply to

    Time to Lock in Hedges

    by donnapurplegirl99 Apr 22, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion 12 hours ago Flag

    Where do you find this and exactly how?

  • Reply to

    Time to Lock in Hedges

    by donnapurplegirl99 Apr 22, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion 12 hours ago Flag

    Now I get it; it gives you futures on the nearest contract. It doesn't seem to provide later contract data. Barchart is a good site also but same thing; if you want to know futures for say June 2018, not there? So it is hard to say what VNR could get in the way of more hedges?

  • Reply to

    Bonds Going Higher

    by backtrade 15 hours ago
    jrfillion jrfillion 13 hours ago Flag

    Sweet! I'm still not able to buy; tried the IB TWS paper account; every time I had a question, it took forever to get anyone to help. Finally decided to go with Etrade; it will take a few weeks to get the account funded. I may have missed some good deals but there will always be deals somewhere in corporate bonds. I think the trick is to watch for downgrades forcing institutional selling, and check 10K for BV and potential survivability. Always some risk; but most can be mitigated with good dd.

  • Reply to

    Interesting article on NGL and AMID

    by jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 9:16 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 4:50 PM Flag

    Perhaps; but insider moves make that very unlikely. But I agree about waiting for redet; but they should announce by Friday. Last month they announced on the 29th. I think there will be one in May. Unless banks force them, which I doubt, they won't cut pref to buy bonds; it makes no sense! The payouts for pref would still be owed and continue earning interest. They only cut pref if it is the only way to satisfy bank and bond payments. I own lots of common and would also agree with cutting dist. in favor of reducing debt.

  • Reply to

    MEMP

    by jberns2421 Apr 27, 2016 3:17 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    Which is why hedges remain important. SA can't satisfy world demand by itself. It and only a couple other small producers are the only ones that can make money at current prices. They will keep a lid on pricing but pricing has to get to 60's or better to get enough production to meet demand. This may take another year or 2 but it will happen. There will be some level of recovery but no one is calling for ARP or MEMP to get back to the high 20's. But; they will survive and get to high single digits, based on earnings driven distributions, IMO.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    It must really have been frustrating for you these last few weeks. A pullback on low volume seems to be what we will see. It may get to the 5's but w/o bad news it won't go any lower than that. Sorry to disappoint you.

  • Reply to

    Oil Rig Count lowest since 2009

    by jeffreygannon2015 Apr 22, 2016 9:03 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    No doubt these moves in oil/NG prices is driving stock higher. Still I remain reluctant to own until I see what the banks do to them. My guess is they will not push them into BK, but will keep them in zombieland much longer than many think. I think bonds are probably safe; the banks won't want them to default but they probably won't be permitted to borrow any more.

  • Reply to

    taking out 5 % stops?

    by ctaz87 Apr 27, 2016 10:31 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 27, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    Uptrends don't last forever; there need to be occasional pullbacks. Also, the technicals are breaking down; higher highs w/o higher RSI usually suggests a pullback. I am sure there are traders hoping for a chance to get in below 6. On the fundamental side; there is still fear that FDA says No! Not likely, IMO; but why take a risk? If you have a nice profit; why not take some off the table, just in case? Some here have a 100% profit; they can sell half, recovering their original investment, and let the rest ride, I and many others, wish we'd done that in 2013!

  • from Barrons this morning. It seems these firms cut the dist. and the SP surged; and we can add MEMP to that list. It seems to not matter whether they did it on their own or forced by the bank. The concern in the market is SURVIVAL, not distribution! What does this mean for ARP? Of course ARP already cut, deeply, but at a time when the market frowned on it rather than liked it. If they eliminated it now, it would probably boost the SP. I think they should and will do it at next ER. Even if they are forced, by bank redet in late May, it will still probably boost the SP. In a way it is crazy; the fact they can pay it says they are in conformance with bank covenants. MEMP was forced by the banks to pay less than ARP and yet their SP is surging toward $2.50; VNR can't even pay their preferred, and has to scrape to pay bond interest; yet it's SP is nearing $2! Clearly ARP has been hammered unmercifully compared to it's peers; mostly because they refused Q&A at last CC. Doing that has caused the market, always suspicious anyhow, to assume the worst. I can hardly wait for bank action as I think it has to be a "good" thing; if not forced to cut it says they are "blessed" by the banks; if forced to cut it says they are "saved" by the banks. Only possible bad outcome is being forced into BK; very, very "not gonna happen".

  • Reply to

    CIO- 8K out

    by chegerar Apr 26, 2016 6:24 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 11:03 PM Flag

    In an uptrend now; dist to be announced any day now; it should continue up till xdiv; sell before xdiv for cap gain or hold if you want the dist (for tax purposes). Wait for bank action or ER yo buy back.

  • Reply to

    question on pre-approval price

    by ctaz87 Apr 26, 2016 1:46 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    Markets are like women; they have the right to change their mind! I suspect for a long time, most in the market expected another CRL; regardless of committee approval. Now, finally, the market is slowly beginning to believe that just maybe, this time, they get the FDA approval. Yes; there was some dilution; I don't think it was 40% but maybe half that. However; during that time they have made a lot of progress on other ProNeura applications.

  • Reply to

    Time to Lock in Hedges

    by donnapurplegirl99 Apr 22, 2016 10:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 4:26 PM Flag

    Awesome site! But how can you get future prices? Great charts, etc; but I didn't see futures? Do you have to join? I clicked on "futures" on the site but only got current prices.

  • Reply to

    Bank

    by cooldr.money Apr 25, 2016 11:52 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    That would be terrible! They aren't paying distributions as it is; what will they have to do? Waiting with baited breath!

  • Reply to

    H Pfd and bonds today

    by berkeybee Apr 19, 2016 1:26 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    I wonder how they are now after Moody's downgrade?

  • Reply to

    Out of cash within 12 Months!

    by mizesaw Apr 26, 2016 11:01 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    True; I hate to find myself in agreement but it is what it is. What amazes me is common over $1 and pref over $5! Neither one is paying; and if we believe Moodys, bonds will probably default. I can see, maybe, buying bonds at discount; because you will get some of your money back in a BK. Pref gets some too, but only after bondholders are paid in full. If you like risk; look at energy sector; I know of at least one pref under $5 that is still paying, over .50/Q.

  • Reply to

    TTNP .. Consensus Recommendation a BUY.

    by listenupgoodbud Apr 21, 2016 7:57 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    I couldn't find it either; but it could still be true." Paid for advice" may not be available unless you have an account. In any case I believe it is a mistake to blindly follow most analysts. Better to do your own dd. However you don't have to be very smart to figure out that TTNP is in an uptrend. As for fundamentals; they are easy to find also. IMO; it all comes down to FDA approval; if they get it; it probably does go to $20's; if they get another CRL it goes into pennystock territory. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Insider buys at ATLS

    by chegerar Apr 22, 2016 8:32 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Apr 26, 2016 9:26 AM Flag

    A form 5 was filed by Kotok, Sr VP; received 12.5K shares ARP common in 2015 and gave to spouse. Apparently many of the mgt staff are being paid, partly, in shares.

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