Of course! Probably into the 20's before it starts to settle. Afterward it will likely retest the 7/8 area, and settle somewhere near 10, IMO. From there it will depend on performance going forward; how fast they grow sales of ProB; progress on pain and other apps. Hard to determine fair value this early; still very speculative. The market will decide; the same market that has already valued it near 7 recently, and near 13 in the past and much higher in the distant past. Things have changed since then; some worse, some better; but only a fool would pay 6/7 that will only go to 8 if you are lucky and zip if you aren't lucky. To say it is only worth 8 on approval is to say it is only worth 3 now. Approval may be likely but not guaranteed!
The FDA would probably love to have variable dosage choices; in fact much of the concern in 2013 is they wanted a bigger dose. What my thinking is, is that it is not so easy to double the dose, else they would have already done it. Of course they could install more rods but there is already a concern with having to plant so many, and how many locations they can find and can be reused yada yada. But; it does seem like a smart move as they get more experience with planting these things. Be nice if they could figure out how to cram more drug into each rod?
I have learned, the hard way, to treat them all like investments in terms of dd; but to trickle in and trickle out based on technicals. During 2015, I lost a lot on ARP, and others, being "long term investor". The problem is: no matter how much you study, you can never know enough. And,a stock can move huge against what the fundamentals indicate; and surprisingly; the market is often right! I got really PO'ed at mgt when they sold more debt last year; I bashed like hell; no one listened so I stayed away for awhile. But now; things are different; it is much cheaper, and the technicals have turned. I think they survive and get back to mid single digits as they "finally" pay down debt. I haven't made much on ARP but did well on pD.
I agree with Cube; it is not wrong to exploit cheap bonds; there are lots of ways to deal with tax consequences. Not sure why they didn't buy more bonds last Q; but it is not because of tax issues. Must have been an "overwhelming" reason; I am keen to find out what it really was.
Thanks for all the discussion; else I'd not have understood it. Ironic; I was the only one not called "clueless"; and I really am clueless! Anyway to summarize what I can discern; they may avoid BK, for now; and that is good. However they will probably remain a zombie company for a long while barely able to meet their obligations to the banks and, hopefully, the bondholders. However since the market wants to love everything this co. does; I expect common and pref to soar.
Yeah; that's what I was thinking. I was amazed that they apparently only got $26. for their unhedged oil! They sold it all for the low of the year?? Even with hedges they only got $46. They did no better on NG, getting only 1.30, unhedged? Do they think they are a "non profit"? Is Bernie on their board making sure they have a good socialist approach to business? The banks are going to barf all over them! It's like I have 200M worth of gold in my back yard; I pay someone 10M to dig it up and sell it for 100M; then I claim an EBITDA of 90M. I hope I have seriously misunderstood this but that's what it looks like.
Don't like the way they do their numbers for EBITDA etc. Makes no sense to me! Maybe it is the names they use causing double negatives. If I just accept the numbers; EBITDA less than last Q; probably to be expected given very low comm prices in 1st Q. How did they acquire a hedge for oil in the 80's for 2017??? Futures in the 50's; they must have bought a derivative; only 21% hedged; great if oil recovers. Was hoping for some hints about bank re determination; I guess it will be sometime in May.
Perhaps; if you still own shares, which I doubt; you should sell them, take a few valium's, and get away from ARP for awhile? It has got to be bad to burden yourself with so much bitterness. I know; I have been there! You can't be short, unless you shorted when it was much higher; if so, you made plenty and are now endangering yourself being a pig (they get slaughtered!). If you are long as you say, why do you be itchin no matter if it goes up or down. If you believe what you just said, sell ARP and buy ATLS. Or buy MCEP; low debt, they will certainly survive. Or VNR; they aren't paying on common or pref and MUST pay down debt; that should make you happy.
One thing I can think of is the recent 13D that showed both Cohens purchased large chunks of ATLS pref shares during 2015; also there was an 8K on Friday about the company selling warrants. I don't pretend to understand just what these financial machinations mean? But it seems to be interpreted as a positive by the market.
The pref is not expected to be paid until June 15th; so it won't be announced until late May. The common announcement may be late? but hopefully redirected toward debt.
I sure hope so! Better to have the bad news behind us then be continuing to wonder how bad it will be. Very likely it will kneejerk the SP down but should recover if it looks able to avoid BK. I would like to own the pref, but only if I can actually expect to get payouts!
I hope it does! If they would announce a temporary elimination in order to reduce debt, the SP would go much higher. Recently, every MLP that has done this has enjoyed a higher SP. I don't think they are forced, by expected bank redet, but I think it would be a smart move. I would rather have the SP over $1 and no concern over delisting than .0125 each month. I don't think there is any real danger of BK; their hedging takes that off the table IMO; but; many here do fear BK and will feel much safer if discounted debt is purchased. But I hope they don't announce bond buybacks; just do it!
Oil flat, NG up huge. Most energy stocks down. What gives? ARP hit .88 before backing off; Overall market down, but not much. Still; a very good week for ARP and most other MLP's; VNR reports Mondy; should be of interest to us as well as VNR investors. Happy Friday!
You didn't ask me but I'll put in my 2 cents anyhow. Mostly it is profit taking; been in a nice uptrend for awhile, lots of profit to be taken. But there is some significant fear selling also. Note today a sudden dip to the 5's on fairly high volume. That was clearly done with a market order; profit taking is usually done with a limit order. Not sure there is any reason for fear, beyond general fear of FDA erratic decisions. But, on a technical basis this opens the door to falling further since it reveals a lack of buy orders in the stack. All it means is this: if you want to go long, or longer, and are waiting for a gift; you just might get it.
I would ignore Zacks and most other "analysts" in favor of doing serious dd. They, and most other similar firms pick a position based on technicals and then bash or pump as needed to support their choice. Then just when you least expect it, they will reverse their opinion for no fundamental reason. Zacks is pumping VNR; next week we'll find out how "right" they are.