Yeah; you would think those with $$ have some smarts; but not necessarily. The bonds that pay in July; do you have those? or the other? or both? I would hope that they would tell the bondholders by now if they weren't going to pay; but they are probably just not sure yet. I looked up the 8/15 bonds; asking 11.25 I think.
Regardless of the precise details which we don't know, some buyers bought very large numbers of shares near the end of the day. The amount spent was not huge, but significant. May have been more than one big buyer, but the purchases were spread over several minutes. Whether it is speculation, rumor, or actual knowledge, someone (or several someones) are willing to invest serious money into a penny stock seemingly headed for BK. But it was only on the common; not sure what that means?
That could be true; I am not intimate with their situation with their bank and have only a small position. Would you like to share just where they are out of compliance? And, when are they due for a redetermination?
Clearly you don't know either; and, neither do I. I can propose a few possibilities; secondary insider trading (something is going on and employees know it and talk to friends); technical move, once it crossed a point of resistance it shot up; my favorite; speculation that no announcement of bond deferral by now means it is being paid means no default means they can manage to pay down revolver means no BK means grossly undervalued. But; the preferreds did not join the parade; so that argues for short covering; but, it hasn't been "shortable" for a long time; so; old shorts covering??
How do you know they were short covering? I know that it has been a long time since ARP could even be shorted; I know because I tried! Once it becomes unmarginable it is also unshortable; so I'm told.
It would seem way too much volume to be just a random event. But it does seem no announcement of bond payment deferral may mean something in itself
That is certainly the question; I hope it gets paid; I'd say the likelihood is about 50%. I think they could pay it and still meet revolver paydown requirements but they may find it less painful (for themselves) to defer the bonds until the revolver is paid down. Unless they can come up with collateral enough to make up the amount they can't pay down in the 4 months they were given. There may be a "grace" period but a default could trigger a BK11. If they do pay it; that would encourage me to believe they will avoid BK. Also; if they were going to defer, it should be announced soon.
Been here a long time too GD long! At some point, no matter what you think of the firm, it ain't workin for me! Just when they might recover and i might make a buck or two, some #$%$ sues. I've seen this movie before; at best, it will be dead money for a long time. Good luck to everyone; maybe Split was right about management. If it completely falls off a cliff, which it might, I might buy just for a quick trade.
Here is a link to it:
It's also on Schwab.
Actually; you are right; this is bad news maybe even horrible; therefor the SP should go back over $8! Since it goes down on good news perhaps it will go up on bad news?? Wishful thinking!
Don't think BREXIT had much to do with it; else it would have revived along with the market. It is because of continuous bashing by the likes of JPM. You should ask yourself: "What's in it for them?" Duh; could they be short and are trying to push it down further before covering? They know it's going to recover; but, they hope to delay that while they exit their short. It's a disgrace that they are allowed to do this. They should be required to report their position along with their "opinion". Investors are willing to believe bad news w/o evidence but won't believe good news even if evidence is provided; why is that? MR and Zack's are positive on CVRR and they provide reasons; does anyone believe them? He!! No!
Zack's rates CVRR as a strong buy and value grade A. Don't know if it will help overcome the hack jobs from hedge funds wanting to get it cheaper. A lot of people don't like Zack's because they are't always right. I don't disagree; however they do support their opinion which you can read and agree with or not. In this case I agree. Same with Market Realist; at least they share their analysis which you can verify. The proof will be in the ER; after the bashers or the pumpers will proven for what they are.
My experience is in agreement with what you have said. Went through it with preferred shares and made out like a bandit when it emerged from BK11. It had no real BV and couldn't pay it's creditors; but it had huge tax loss carry foreward; some how that enabled a restructured company. I got #shares equat the #p shares I had bought for $6. I sold the new shares for $27/sh!
They are all sheep and have to told by a picture or vocally what to do. They can not read or think for themselves. Oil is a tiny part of ARP's business; but, NG is a huge part. So the market sell it like crazy when NG roars; then buys like crazy when oil goes up and NG falls. And that is why; if you can read and with just a few brain cells that work and some patience; you almost can't lose!