rates go higher because more people are working. More people working mean more people buying homes. Rates are at historically low rates and people know that the wont last. IF you have a job and you want a house, you will buy.
Easy as that. Inventory levels are at historic lows. New construction is coming back and 2014 will be the first full year that the recover will be in full swing. Sit on the side lines with you short and get your #$%$ kicked in 2014.
If the housing rebound is for real. Expect HOV to make around 1.3 a share next year and maybe 1.7 to 2.2 in 2015. Could easily be a 15-20 stock in 24 months. Nibble a bit, just don't put your next egg on the grill.
Starting to pay big dividends 3X short the market. Will continue to move down in the foreseeable future. Market was prime for a correction, this government shut down and debt conversation was the fuel to get it going. Will be back in AKS after all the craziness is over.
Do a little research. This 120 million will be made of in the next year with increasing interest rates and paying down the pension liabilities. As the price increases so will profits. AKS will start sourcing a much larger % of the raw materials also helping cost.
Time will turn AKS around. As things start to fall in place. But it will take time.
We need to see some significant movement in steel prices and interest rates. It is the pension liabilities that really make AKS numbers look bad. Higher interest rates will be a great thing for AKS.
Forward earning are just a guess by the analyst. This is a moving target with AKS. Lower earnings this qrt will keep a lid on a run.
I don't expect earnings to be good since they just pre warned they would miss. It is the forecast going forward that is the difference. Interest rates rise and good forward forecast you will do well. I still think they may be a little more down side and I have learned my lessons about holding volatile stocks through earnings.
Management is not the problem. Low steel prices and agreeing to overinflated pensions years back. Think the pension holders will renegotiate their pensions? No. Time will work it out. Management dumped the pensions going forward.
Unless steel collapses AKS will come back strong. When interest rates were going up aks rose with them. Direct correlation to the pension liabilities. I expect another big move, but not for the next 30 days or so.