Would have agreed one mth ago.. But the value of Capes and Panamax have jumped so much in last couple of weeks?? Drys may survive, and still own some of Orig stock!! Something looks mighty fishy to me about how those Panamax rates just kept falling and all of a sudden jumped by 50%?? Lets just watch and see what rates do going forward...If they continue up.. Drys should be fine... Now back to worrying about how many shrs outstanding?? On earnings report, reported 382M shrs outstanding.. On key statistics board.. Shows 403.76M shrs???
Now I am questioning any figures posted on shipping?? According to figures posted on BDI.. One yr ago Capes were leasing at $5,896. per day...Now $35,428.. Panamax $3,723. Now $11,106?? Is this just a temperary spike where they are just leasing a few bulkers at those rates?? Personally, I ain't going to have much faith in those figures, untill Drys Gets some Contracts signed for some of thier Panamax??? If there was a glut of bulkers a yr ago.. What happened to it?? Those bulkers have a life of 20-25 yrs.?? Last figure I read, some of ship builders had shut down.. But still produced about 50% as many bullkers in last yr as yr before??? Don't make sense to me.. That there still ain't a glut of drybulkers?? If you check back on earnings reports.. As of last qtr, Drys had one Cape whose $10K per day contract expired.. They turned around and leased it for $11.5K per day??? The next Cape, Drys will have to lease, is the one leased at $10K per day, thru March 2014!!! Now the question is?? Were they just playing games, with those rates all along?? Did those dudes from Greece who carried the drybulkers public, have the capability all along, to drive rates, where they want them???
Seen where you stated 10 Capes leased this week and 9 last week!! Capes are of no concern to Drys right now, as thiers are already chartered??? You got any figures on how many Panamax were chartered this week???
And if you do have that figure.. Were any signed to 3 yr contracts at decent rates?? I think all those Panamax, Drys has on spot and the 4 being built.. Is where the rubber hits the road, concerning Drys?? Any figures on panamaxes???? And question for anybody?? Could they lease one or 2 capes or panamax and dirve BDI up??
You wouldn't want to tell me that sitting in a bar!!! To begin with nothing would have been their to change your sentiment 3 mths ago... 3 mths ago, it was trading at about $1.80 and looked like possible BK... Now in last 3 weeks, the BDI has really went up and its doubled, from that $1.80!!! Now you are saying you went from short to long 3 mths ago.. I can't post what I would be calling you.. If we were sitting in a bar!!!!
This is more than a pump job! I have sit here and watched it with, disbelief.. A couple of mths ago, Drys had a cape, come available to lease.. They wrote about 1 yr contract at $11,500. per day... Now they are leasing for over $36k per day... Less than 1 mth ago.. All those Panamax, Drys has on spot were leasing for about $7200.- $7400. per day. In about 3 wks those rates have about doubled!!! Bottom line, if those rates can hold up?? The value of those Capes and Panamax may have doubled... That changes complexion of everything.. All that debt of Drys, has covanets attached.. Last 2 earnings reports covered Drys selling Orig stk and pledging Orig stk to cover those covenets!!!! As Drys won't report again for about 1 1/2 mths... Keep an eye on BDI??? How hard would it be for all those dudes over there in Greece to hold enough bulkers back, to drive rates up?? Hell of a lot more profit, renting one at $36K, than renting three at $12K per day!!! In the mean time.. Other than catching stk movement!!! This is the dudes over in Athens, sandbox!! I don't think you are doing anything, when buying any of these drybulkers other than, suporting them!!! And of course you got those manipulators posting constantly, telling you to buy or sell, depending on how they are playing!!! As the dude on Big bang Therory said.. Hit it and quit it!!! When you think, you figured out something nobody else has!!! Think again.. As of right now.. Rates for capes, ain't doing Drys, any good.. Other than value of bulkers increasing!!! I know rates for Panamaxes have got to be helping!! But ain't sure they are profitable, after doubling in last mth??
trader, This is coming from someone that was convinced, a mth ago, GE had set Drys up to go BK?? But the way that BDI has jumped in last mth.. Everything looks a lot different now!!! And make no mistake!! They had already made some drastic changes at Orig to have them start showing a profit last qtr!! Last qtr, Orig with same amount of rigs in operation as a year earlier... Generated less revenue, but showed a profit vs a loss from a yr earlier??? But there are so many unknowns about Drys and Orig, hard to really figure out what is going on?? Read about changes made on Orig's $1.35B loan.. It reads to me like.. They are paying dividends to someone of up to $150M a yr?? And 5% of Orig's asset value, every yr?? If so?? To whom?? In first qtr, they stated Drys, was a pure shipping Co.. All Orig represented to Drys any more, They owned Orig stk??? My interpretation of that?? No moneys could flow from Orig, to Drys, regardless?? Now lets watch and see if what those rates for Capes and Panamax's will hold up ?? As of right now, at what they are leasing for... The value of those bulkers, should have about doubled, in last mth?? Should take presure off of pledging all that Orig stk, to cover all that debt?? Lot of water will go over dam, before we see next earnings report!!! But could Drys have already leased some of those Panamax, at lot lower rates, than they have already jumped up to?? When that last Cape come available to lease a couple of mths ago.. They turned around and leased it for $11.5K per day? Now they are leasing for $37K per day?? Next Cape available to lease will be March or April, 2014!!! And at some point they leased 2 of those Panamax's for $7500. per day?? Now they are leaseing for about twice that?? It would not surprize me to see, where Drys has already leased some of those Panamax at $8K to $10K per day?? GE stated in last ER.. He didn't expect things to get better this yr for bulkers?? And at the time they were leasing for less than $7500. per day??
Spart.. They were losing a lot of money! And sure couldn't service all that debt! But if those rates on BDI mean anything? Drys could be back to profitability about now?? Have no idea what this qtr will look like as those rates have just jumped in last mth?? Should those rates for those drybulkers hold!! Drys looks pretty decent going forward, compared to what we been looking at!!! Last qtr concerns!! How big a lose were they going to take, on those 4 Panamax being built?? And how much more of that Orig stk were they going to have to pledge to lenders, to keep them at bay? Anybody that can't appreciate, that rates for those 28 Panamax's of Drys has about doubled in last mth.. Shouldn't be investing in shipping stks!! Questions now?? Have they already got rid of those 4 newbuild Panamax at tremendous loss?? And have they already leased a lot of those Panamax's at lot lower rates than they are leasing for now?? Biggest question?? Will rates hold or even keep going higher??
Guess what.. I loved this stk in early 2011, as they were bringing on 4 rigs that yr!!!
Forgot to mention.. In 2011.. Drys stk just kept dropping from over $6. per shr as they added those last 4 rigs and Drys still basically owned Orig!!! Ths last qtr, was first qtr, that any earnings showed up on bottom line, for Orig in a while.. Now we know Drys ownership of Orig is down to at least 59%? And may be lot lower?? Are you aware value of Drys stk has went from about $800M to about $1.4B in last mth, based on BDI figures?? Is BDI going up, because, while there is small demand for those bulkers?? The Drybulkers, are only offering a few to lease?? I'll believe demand for these drybulkers, have improved.. When I see Drys, announce they have leased some at these rates!! All I know, Drys was very eager to lease that last Cape at $11..5K per day.. And now they are leasing for $37K per day? And as for last couple of yrs.. All we been watching was leases for Panamax running out, and all them going on spot??
All of Drys past earnings reports are posted in thier website, under press releases.. Compare what all those Panamax were leased at in early 2011.. Then compare it to this last ER!!! Then tell me if Drys can report a profit this qtr??
I can't imagine why they ain't putting a strong buy on all these drybulkers about now!!! But they have all, already took big moves on increase in bulker rates.. What I am wondering about?? Have the drybulkers got together and holding part of drybulkers off the mkt, to drive rates up like this?? Seems a little funny, for there to have been such a glut of bulkers? For rates to have fallen as low as they had over last few yrs.. Then in one mth, for them to have jumped like they have? Drys had a lease on one of thier capes expire last qtr at $10K per day.. Turned around and leased it for about a yr @ $11.5K per day.. Now they are leasing for $40K per day??? BTW: That big jump in Capes, ain't doing Drys any good right now.. Other than value of capes going up!!! Next cape available to lease will be in like March or April 2014! Lot of water will have went over dam, by then?
If you think the way all this is playing out is hurting George Economue.. Think again!! He let it be know in last qtrly report.. That 2 of bulkers, that Drys was taking a bloodbath on, and paying cash for someone to take them off Drys hands!! Were being bought by an affiliate!! I suspect it was, his privatly owned Co??? You couldn't have wrote a better scenerio, for GE!! Has all this been one big game for GE and other ship owners in Greece, that took all these drybulkers public in 2005??
Mw, while I have never thought much of analyst predictions!! But they got to work with info, avaliable and furnished by Co!! In 2011, Drys had all those Panamax leased at good rates! Owned 78% of Orig.. And Orig bringing on 4 newbuild rigs in 2011, which were to have big earnings? What analyst and everybody was missing... In 2009, 2010 + 2011, while Drys was reporting good earnings.. They also sold an additional 280M shrs of Drys stk, into the mkt.. And was borrowing ever penny they could against newbuilds... Drys should have been floating in cash, when first newbuild rig showed up in Jan, 2011.. Yet GE sold 22% of Orig for $500M, to take delivery of that first newbuild rig.. What happened to all the money from stk sales and all that borrowed money??? Lot of things didn't turn out as they appeared in 2010 + 2011?? My understanding. From 2005 till 2011, GE had started Drys with 6, 21yr old bulkers.. And already made himself a few billion dollar.. (thats where the money went) !! I do believe with Orig, finally reporting some earnings last qtr!! GE may quit taking all the money?? In the mean time.. Check to see on this ER.. What he has done with those 4 newbuild Panamax, that he ordered in Dec 2011, the last time rates were going up for Panamax.. Then as rates tanked.. Dumped them on Drys!! He announced, that in Feb 2012??
In the mean time! What does any of that do for stk holders?? Nothing other than catching uptick in stk price! The ones running these Co, will most likely take any profits, if they do get back to profitability?? I sure know how much those rates for bulkers have increased in last mth?? Got me scratching my head?? Even with Glut!! Newbuilds dropped by 50% TTM from yr earlier!! Just adding to glut as I see it!!! All those bulkers built in last few yrs have a life of 20 to 25 yrs!! If there is a glut of bulkers, it ain't going away for yrs!!! And we know of 4 newbuild Panamaxes Drys is having built as we speak??
Those same thoughts have run thru my mind.. In 2009, 2010 and 2011 when Drys was reportings good and then decent earnings.. They sold an additional 280M shrs of Drys which may have averaged over $5. per shr.. I think every penny of that money flowed to GE's private Co? From charging about 30% commisions when buying and selling bulkers, tankers + rigs!! And they also get about 5% of all revenues, generated.. As Drys may really be about worthless right now and losing money? And not capable of paying the 30% commisions and 5% of revenues.. Drys and Orig list debt.. But then list other liabilities.. Which is over $700M.. Does Orig and Drys owe GE over $700M, right now on top of of a few billion he has charged over the last few yrs?? What made me start questioning all this.. When they added those last 4 rigs in 2011?? Where the hell was all that money going to, as Drys was going down the drink!!!
For the record.. What capes have done in big move up and now down move, will have nothing to do, with revenues for 3rd, 4th qtr of 2013 and 1st qtr 2014!! All of Drys capes are leased thru March 2014!!!Sensitive's post has nothing to do with what is going on at Drys.....Other than, maybe what those Capes could sell for, should they be forced to sell any of them.. That shouldn't happen! Those Panamax are a different story.. Most of Drys are on spot.. In last mth, spot rates have gone from $7200. per day to $18K per day!!! And in reading that BDI.. Seems they could write 1 yr contracts for $13.5K per day.. And 2 yr contracts for $12.5 per day!! If figures on BDI, really mean anything??? I ain't sure if they got them all leased at $13K per day.. It would get Drys back to profitability?? All I know is things look a lot better, than they did when Panamaxs were leasing for $7200. per day!!! And while Capes took a big hit the last 2 days.. Those Panamax went up a little, both days!!! Question here! Can Capes and expecially those Panamax, hold on to some of that jump we have seen in last mth?? We will see on next earnings report whether they got any of those panys leased at these higher rates?? I think the only leases they have wrote for Panamax, in last couple of yrs.. Was 2 at $7500. per day?? It willl be interesting to see this next earnings report!!! Don't expect too much! Those rates just started jumping in last mth of this qtr!!
What people need to realize.. Three mths ago, Drys was selling at $1.80!! Which I thought was over priced then... But as that BDI has really jumped in last mth.. If those rates can hold?? Drys is worth twice what it was 3 mths ago!! (Maybe?).. But as I believe there is a glut of bulkers and they are building more as we speak!! And they have a life of 20 to 25 yrs!! Have they Dry docked a bunch of them to make rates increase.. Actually would make good sense! One Cape getting $40K per day, would be rather profitable.. Four Capes at $11.5K per day, may would be operating at a loss, on all 4..($11.5K per day, was what Drys leased last Cape for).. In the mean time what to do about the ones in drydock?? Costs to have them drydocked, and not generating any revenue?? If that is game playing out here???? I personally believe we see the rates for those bulkers fall, about as fast as we saw them go up?? If so, lets see if Drys Got any of those Panamaxes leased at these rates??? We know the shape Drys is in, if the rates for those 28 Panamax drops back to 7K-8k per day!! With upward of $2B of debt to service!!!