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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

jrp1324 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 10, 2014 10:43 PM Member since: Mar 15, 1999
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  • Reply to

    NG Prices

    by jberns2421 Jan 23, 2014 8:57 AM
    jrp1324 jrp1324 Feb 10, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    POP contracts have exposure to the heavy end of the NGL stream and that end closely correlates to oil prices. Propane is the largest single dollar amount of the NGL barrel and you are right to lump ethane and natural gas together. Yes, exposure to product prices is has more risk than fee contracts but they are in general much more lucrative. It seems APL in the last 8 years keeps fighting the last battle. Keep Whole contracts moved away from right before natural gas prices crashed and they became the most profitable. Moving away from POP contracts the last 3 years while supply demand balance on products can be seen firming and becoming lucrative. Moving into fee areas and having no distribution increases the last 3 quarters because APL paid a large premium for growth that has not materialized. Justifying the Eagleford purchase by claiming basin diversification will lead to lower risk and higher stock price relative to yield. It has not panned out and my expectation is that in the next 4 quarters the POP contracts will provide enough growth that APL can brush over the poor performance of the 3 latest acquisitions, the NGL line, the Eagleford and the Oklahoma purchase. All dilutive but maybe in 3 or 4 years they will be viewed as strategic. My guess is we would have been much better off with the legacy areas and expanded in them only.
    Just my opinion,
    jim

  • Reply to

    NG Prices

    by jberns2421 Jan 23, 2014 8:57 AM
    jrp1324 jrp1324 Feb 6, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    I like the exposure to POP. In the Permian it is a big money maker of close to $1 per 1000 cubic feet processed right now. Way better than fee business.
    PXD earnings out Monday. If APL can get the contracts in the Eagleford and PXD guides higher then APL is at a short term bottom. Growth should be tremendous "margin wise" in the Permian.
    jim

  • Reply to

    NG Prices

    by jberns2421 Jan 23, 2014 8:57 AM
    jrp1324 jrp1324 Feb 6, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    artrdr,
    APL has very few KW contracts in OK. They are in the Velma area for the most part.
    It looks like APL went into the new year with Mt Belvue hedges on propane protecting Conway propane or Conway propane was not hedged. The 2 markets have flipped for a couple of weeks now and for once APL may be on the right side of a hedge as Conway has higher prices than Mt Belvue.
    jim

  • Reply to

    Chevron Dilemma

    by bosox_pats Feb 6, 2014 6:03 AM
    jrp1324 jrp1324 Feb 6, 2014 6:57 AM Flag

    APL overpaid for the Texas LPG line compared to debt issued, compared to units issued since that time. The only way it was a creative is compared to the credit line. I hope they sell it and concentrate on internal growth. Likely take a loss on sale IMO but who knows. I am glad they have the opportunity to sell it.
    jim

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