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jrpalladin 91 posts  |  Last Activity: May 12, 2013 7:09 AM Member since: Feb 9, 1999
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  • Reply to

    BB&T Changing Things Up

    by bbt_up_and_down May 9, 2013 9:27 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin May 12, 2013 7:09 AM Flag

    Yes, I've been with USAA. They are very nice. Offer discount brokerage but I like Schwab and Scottrade better They don't offer homeowner's insurance in charleston sc. Liberty Mutual provides a nice bundle package provided you have a good record.

  • Reply to

    Norm - Earnings prediction and how to play?

    by matollionequay Jan 15, 2013 10:13 AM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Jan 16, 2013 6:59 AM Flag

    King has a history of beating earnings expectations by a penny or two. The reo foreclosed property expense has been ridiculously high - big drag on earnings. Also, with 30 day delinquencies trending at or near an historic low, you would think that they would drop their provision for bad loans down to their "normalized" level of 70 bsp but it is still well above this. What's going on with the employees redeployed from reo liquidation to money making activites - remember King talking about the big drag on earnings from reo overhead?

    My big concern is the Congress. Bbt earnings take a back seat. We have a radical element in Congress - poses a serious threat to put us in recession and cause severe market activity.

    I'm still a shareholder and a customer of bbt. I do most of my banking now with Schwab and Scottrade. They provide discount brokerage. Also, Schwab interest rate on checking is 15 bsp while savings is 25 bsp. Bbt does not provide competitive discount brokerage. Also, I have found their insurance services are not competitive. I used to have my house, auto, umbrella through bbt but their "best deals" where too expensive and I switched over to Liberty Mutual for 1/2 the cost. Eventually, I may change my direct deposits, bill paying and visa over to Schwab. It's a pain because you have to get everything set up but long term it's simplification.

    Bbt has missed the boat on what's important to me. I look at myself as a typical " boomer"
    and I think they're going to have to change their focus in a major way if they want to keep business.

  • Reply to

    Norm - What do you think?

    by matollionequay Oct 12, 2012 3:39 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Oct 19, 2012 3:51 PM Flag

    Contrary to what Mr. King says, the fdic charge increased during the quarter even though the covered loan net interest income ramped down as expected. An obvious contradiction to the question.

    I'm not clairvoyant and certainly did not expect adc land to become almost worthless so I gave bbt management the benefit of the doubt. However, in April of 2011 I asked Mr. King directly at a shareholder meeting about the $1.2 billion charges to foreclosed property expense with most of it valuation allowance. Response to my question - worst is over. Well that did not happen. Bbt has charged an additional $.9 billion to foreclosed property expense. I've lost track of the mark on foreclosed property but its got to be 85%.

    I don't know what's going on here but with only $139 million in foreclosed property expense which has been written down mucho and real estate values starting to raise, it is unacceptable to see a continuation of significant foreclosed property expense. How come virtually every big bank in America has not had anywhere close to the foreclosed property expense reported by bbt??

    Yes, it has been a shell game to preserve shareholder value but it's time to play it straight up with respect to some of the questions I've raised.

  • Reply to

    Norm - What do you think?

    by matollionequay Oct 12, 2012 3:39 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Oct 19, 2012 11:17 AM Flag

    Sorry about your loss on the Oct $33 and my bad advice. The earnings headline should have been $.72 eps before ex items on 8.4% loan growth. Outcome might have been difference if headline were worded differently.

    I had about 3/4 of my bbt position hedged because of past management credibility problems so I did not get walloped. The time to buy bbt might be the quarter before they pay out their bonus shares - they sell their bonus shares so the gray area in accounting will likely be slanted in a positive direction in the previous qtr. earnings release.

    King said on cnbc yesterday that bad stock reaction was due to comment made on margins dropping to 375 bsp in fourth qtr., down around 19 bsp from 3rd qtr. I disagree with his assessment. Last year he said nim would drop in 2012 to 375 bsp but it has remained in the mid 390's to 400 range throughout this year. Yes, covered loans are worth about 30 bsp on total nim but they're not going to drop off the books in the 4th qtr. Likely to see another $25 million reduction in covered loan nim - maybe weighted 7 bsp down. But new loans have gross yields on the average of 4.8% and deposit costs are 12 bsp, so that's a plus offsetting so of the covered loan runoff.

    Don't understand many areas. Why is reo expense so high- $54 miliion with reo balance dropping to $139 million? What are the reo unpaid loan balance, net book value and % cumulative writedown? Why is bbt so secretive about this subject? Will the bank show gains eventually on the good adc stuff since apparently much of it has been written down to almost nothing. Tell me about the fdic reimbursement on colonial. Almost as much as 3rd qtr. of 2011 even though covered loan balance has dropped by say 40%. How about crump? 15% irr on $576 million purchase price is close to $100 million in cash. Where is it? Look at the insurance segment and don't see much of an improvement vs. last year even though pricing and same store sales are allegedly better? Why is the provision for bad loans flat vs. last year and is still running at close to 100 bsp while credit has improved so much? Why is BBT provision 4 times higher than MTB bank even though bbt nonaccruals, reos and past 90 days loans are significantly lower on a relative basis.

    Also, why is King whining so much about the economy when consumer are just beginning to dig themselves out of debt. The fed's mortgage financial obliation ratio is at a 30 year low. Housing starts are beginning to climb. In the last 4 year construction has been rotten and is still floating at the bottom so we still have not gotten much of a bounce in employment - but it's coming with construction likely to add 4 million direct and indirect jobs over next few years. Yes, there is too much regulation and about 30% of Dodd Frank needs to be repealed especially the segment on debit cards but the whole bill should not be gutted.

    I read the transcripts of jpm, wfc, usb and pnc. Think I understand. Then, I read bbt transcript. I'm confused. The transparency is not there particularly the reports provided by Clark Starnes, their chief risk officer. I'm still licking my wound on the $2.1 billion of foreclosed property expense booked over last few years - mostly valuation allowance adjustment- taken to other income and expense - not loan loss provision. I have core value too - honesty and integrity and think we're on a different frequency.

  • Reply to

    TECHSTER, gotta luv the chitster

    by rburkett101 Apr 30, 2012 8:13 AM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Apr 30, 2012 8:35 AM Flag

    ahhhh

  • jrpalladin by jrpalladin Jan 5, 2011 5:54 PM Flag

    Appreciated today's release. Although I would have like to hear much more from Russ, we should get our opportunity to learn more next week when tgb presents at an investor conference.

  • Reply to

    33.6 MILLION POUNDS!!!!

    by ortiusny Jan 4, 2011 5:49 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Jan 5, 2011 7:30 AM Flag

    I'm not trying to make excuses for hallbauer. It would have been better to publish sales with production data which should be available next week than provide such a flimsy release leaving shareholders up in the air.

    Two items come to mind regarding the 4th qtr.

    First, production days for the 4th qtr are 6% less than the prior quarter. Could equate to 1.5 million pounds of copper and account for half of the reduction from 3rd qtr production of 25.6 million pounds.


    Second, tgb costs will continue to drop in 1st qtr. with the increased throughput is fully operational. No rush to mine copper in the 4th qtr as costs are going down plus metal price are not likely to pull back.

    Hallbauer said that they made all planned shipments so why would you want to increase inventories when production costs are coming down next qtr?

    I'll cut hallbauer some slack but am not pleased with his pr performance with shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Copper $4.0853

    by avegasdude777 Dec 7, 2010 3:17 AM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Dec 7, 2010 7:13 AM Flag

    Now up to $4.10. JPM has accumulated about half the LME inventory - which i think is 1 1/2 years of tgb production.

    JPM would have been better off buying tgb instead of lme copper. Heck, they could have used tgb $300 million of cash on buy to buy a big chunk of the stock.

  • Reply to

    Copper Pricing and Inventories

    by stevenchagar Dec 1, 2010 9:10 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Dec 1, 2010 9:16 PM Flag
  • Price target increased to $10.60 Canadian from $7.50 Canadian. Did CIBC cash in on the flash crash the next day?

  • Reply to

    Who is responsible?

    by bankonit42013 Nov 25, 2010 1:19 AM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Nov 25, 2010 9:47 AM Flag

    "Federal officials interviewed by CBC News on condition of anonymity said the unexplained crash of Taseko stock caused instant panic in the ministerial offices that were involved in reviewing the proposed mine.

    Everyone, they said, had the same fear — a government leak."

    Really? Apparently Jim Prentice did not share this fear. He had been talking to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce since September 2010 about an exciting new job opportunity at the bank. This information is per published reports. The source is Jim Prentice. Several hours after he resigned on 11/4/10 Prentice was gullible enough to do a tv interview where he talked about cibc first approaching him in early September of 2010 and then formal discussions started in late September. If Prentice was indeed so concerned about government leak after the flash crash, why did he consent to go on camera and make himself a likely target of a big investigation???



    On October 12, cibc increased their price target on tgb to $10.75 share canadian. Two days later, flash crash. Any link between this and the Jim Prentice interviews starting in September? What did cibc and Jim Prentice talk about?

    Could it have been the weather or possibly they talked about prosperity gold mine, first nations and prentice's view on the proposal.

    Prentice was also minister for indian affairs which by itself imo is a conflict on interest.

  • Reply to

    Prentice should be investigated

    by dogfromhell21 Nov 17, 2010 12:42 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Nov 19, 2010 7:23 AM Flag

    Last night I've filed a complaint against cibc for potential insider trading and price manipulation. I filed it on the SEC electronic online form.

    The angle I'm coming from in the complaint is that Jim Prentice may have leaked the prosperity mine decision during his cibc job interviews starting in September triggering the flash crash and manipulating share price over the last couple of months. I used the word may and only the SEC can review cibc financial records to see if they were the beneficiary of large profits in tgb. If so, I say something stinks to high heaven.

    Don't have much faith in the SEC. We'll see what happens.

  • jrpalladin by jrpalladin Nov 13, 2010 9:48 AM Flag

    GG, ABX have to be linking from the chops:

    Cash - $300 million at 12/31/10 or $1.60 share. No long term debt except equipment loans and leases spread over many years

    Gibraltar Revenues - 4th qtr. 2010 - 22 million lbs of cu and 200k lbs of moly - around $90 million (tgb portion only)

    Gibraltar Cash Costs - 4th qtr. 2010 - around $29 million making it a mid low range cost producer. Imagine what costs would be if tgb added capacity and ramped production up from 115 to 180 annual cu lbs.


    Tgb SG&A - 4th qtr. 2010 - around $8 million

    So at $4.00 cu, tgb makes $50 million pretax per qtr or $200 million per year with a mine that's should be good for 20 years. After tax profit probably around $150 million. What's it worth over 17 years? Say 8 times $150 million which is cheap given supply and demand fundamentals of copper.

    Hmmm.... $300 million cash plus 8 times annual profit after tax for Gibraltar = $1.5 billion/188 million shares = $7.97 share

    Hmmm... That includes 0 valuation for prosperity, aley, harmony.

    If gg or abx started accumulating tgb at current price, tgb cumulative cash at end of 4 years would total $5 share assuming no further mine expansion.

    At takeout of $8 share, tgb may have enough cash on balance sheet for a big player to do a lbo and not have to shell anything out of pocket or make any guarantees. Use tgb $300 million of cash as downpayment and hock gibraltar mine for $1.2 billion.

  • Reply to

    Cash Flow

    by jcbrowns Nov 11, 2010 1:02 PM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Nov 11, 2010 5:17 PM Flag

    "just checked the balance sheet, and as of 30Sep they had ~$195-million which probably means that it would be 2011 year end b4 they would have a $300-million cash stash. JMHO!"

    What about the $41 million of copper at the port of vancouver at 9/30/10?

    What about the $12 million in proceeds from the sale of continental mineral outstanding at 9/30/10?

    What about $3 million in marketable securities at 9/30/10.

  • Copper Pricing - 2nd $3.15, 3rd $3.76, 4th Probably $3.95

    Volume (CU Ibs) - 2nd 18.7million, 3rd 25.6 million, 4th Probably 29.0 million

    Cash Cost - 2nd $2.01, 3rd $1.40, 4th Probably $1.20

    Bottom Line - 3rd qtr. gross profit/lb increased to $2.36. Probably will increase to $2.75 in 4th with production volume increasing an additional 10%. So my outlook for 4th qtr is:

    29 million lbs times $2.75/lb gross profit/lb ($3.95 minus $1.20) times 75% equals $59.8 million of gross profit less $10 million of SG&A/Depreciation equals $50 million pretax less 25% for tax equals $37 million or $.20 eps.

  • jrpalladin by jrpalladin Nov 10, 2010 8:52 PM Flag

    Before Unrealized Gain (Loss)On Derivatives and Joint Venture Adjustment

    Reference tgb website - Financials Under Investor Tab

    Quarterly flow of pretax earnings:

    3rd 2010 - $12.6 million ($38.4 million with port of vancouver copper inventory)
    2nd 2010 - $20.8 million
    1st 2010 - $14.3 million
    4th 2009 - $3 million

    As noted $41 million of copper revenue got hung up at port of vancouver and were not recorded as revenue in 3rd qtr. Will be booked in the 4th quarter. Would have increased 3rd qtr. 2010 pretax earnings from $12.6 million to $38.4 million which is almost double 2nd qtr. 2010 actual.

    Fourth qtr. pretax earnings are going to be a whopper.

  • he needs help in the pr area.

    Great Quarter!!!! 52% of their shipments got hung up at the port of vancouver but tgb still reported pretax profit before derivatives and possibly gain on continental mineral stock sale of $12.6 million. The 52% of shipments ($41.1 million in revenue) equates to roughly $25.8 million in additional pretax profit. This is tgb 75% portion (excludes 25% japanese portion).

    Bottom line: If there had not been a hang up at the port of vancouver, tgb pretax profit before derivatives would have been $38.4 million ($12.6 million plus $25.8 million). Ignoring derivative and possibly the continental transaction and assuming say a 25% tax rate, pat would have been $28.8 million or about $.15 per share.

    Average cu price - $3.76. Great. Will continue to increase. Cap is $3.95 for 2010.

    Cost of production (cash)- Dropped to $1.40. Fabulous. Will continue to drop in the 4th qtr as noted in the press release. Maybe $1.20 lb?

    Anxious to see cash balance. Balance should increase in 4th qtr. by $11.5 million for continental and $26 million for the vancouver congestion.

  • CIBC had plenty of opportunity to find out Prentice position on prosperity mine. Wonder who dumped 3 million shares in 1 minute - flash crash?

    During CIBC talks, Prentice says he didn’t talk banking inside government
    by John Geddes on Thursday, November 4, 2010 4:31pm - 74 Comments
    [UPDATED BELOW]

    An obvious question arises from Environment Minister Jim Prentice’s surprise announcement this afternoon that he’s leaving to join CIBC as vice-chairman: During the period when Prentice was in talks with bank about the job, did he recuse himself from federal cabinet talks on financial institutions issues?

    I put the question to Prentice through a media spokesman, who provided this answer: ”Jim Prentice has not participated in or had any discussions in cabinet or elsewhere in government pertaining to CIBC in particular or financial institutions in general since initially being contacted by the bank.”

    Since Prentice was, up until this afternoon, chairing the cabinet’s powerful operations committee, where all sorts of government business has to be discussed, it seems surprising that absolutely nothing related to banking was on the agenda. I asked about that.

    “It did not come up,” said Prentice’s spokesman. “We’re talking about a very short time period.”

    Interesting. Sounds like a whirlwind courtship. I’ve asked how long ago CIBC approached Prentice, and will update this post if I hear back.

    UPDATE:

    The same spokesman tells me Prentice was first approached by the CIBC about a month and a half ago. He talked to the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Comissioner then for guidance on how to do his political job while negotiating with the bank.

    On the point that absolutely nothing about financial institutions came up for cabinet consideration during those weeks, I note that Prentice was not on the Cabinet Committee on Economic Growth and Long-term Prosperity, so it’s possible something banking-related could have come up there and he just wasn’t in the room.

  • Production - 3rd qtr volume increased 28% vs. 2nd qtr. 4th qtr volume should increase an additional 10% over 3rd qtr to equate to tgb annualized 115 million lbs of cu resulting from modernization program.

    Price - My guess is that 3rd qtr. average price increased to 3.45/lb, up 10% from 2nd qtr. average price of $3.15/lb. 4th qtr will continue to increase. Think it will average $3.80/lb, up 10% from 3.45/lb.

    Cu Revenue - 3rd qtr vs. 2nd qtr - Volume Up 28% Price Up 10% = Total of 40%.

    -4th qtr vs. 3rd qtr. - Volume Up 12% Price Up 10% = Total of 23%

    Production Costs - Russ said cost per lb of cu in 2nd qtr. of $2.01 contained $.41/lb of one time charges. Expect some of that to continue to be in 3rd qtr until modernization program has been completed.

    Sale of Continental Copper - Gain of $6 million from tgb 5.5 million shares.

    I'm looking for $.12/share of eps. Hard to figure with tax rate, derivative gains/losses, one time charges etc.

    Based on current prices of cu, I think tgb 2011 eps is in the $.65 to $.70 range resulting in a p/e of about 5 excluding the $1 of cash from share price.

    Hallbauer has much explaining to do Friday - his interaction with Prentice/Fed in August/ September/ October and why he updated website to include terminology- Approval by Federal Gov't Imminent. Why did he use work approval and not decision?

    Most importantly, what is the plan going forward?????

  • Reply to

    -email from R Hawes

    by boyd19562002 Nov 7, 2010 9:57 AM
    jrpalladin jrpalladin Nov 7, 2010 1:44 PM Flag

    Thanks for sharing hawes response. I think tgb and bc should use the politics of the situation to their advantage. They should focus in on getting the mine approved quickly as possible leveraging the politics to its max.

    Jim Prentice and CIBC stink to high heaven and personally I think they want this subject put to bed as quickly as possible. Prentice is one hell of a dummy imo to resign effective immediately and going to work for CIBC after making the decision. Or did Harper force him into this position?

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