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Joy Global, Inc. Message Board

js291955 420 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 8, 2014 5:00 AM Member since: May 31, 2009
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  • Reply to

    bottom line

    by buck409 Apr 8, 2014 2:59 AM
    js291955 js291955 Apr 8, 2014 5:00 AM Flag

    JRCC will eventually go to zero and shareholders will be wiped out. This was obviously going to happen so which fools bought it at 70 cents?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Analysts are becoming increasingly confident that touchpad sensor developer Synaptics (SYNA) won the fingerprint sensor design slot for the Samsung's Galaxy S smartphone.

    Analyst Jeffery Schreiner with Feltl & Co. wrote in a March 15 report that the deal could be Synaptics' largest outside of Apple (AAPL). This suggests "SYNA hit a grand slam in its first at bat in the (fingerprint sensor) market," Schreiner said.

    While still speculation on the part of analysts, Robert Stone with Cowen & Co. was confident enough in his research to raise his price target on the stock to 80 from 70. Schreiner's price target went to 70 from 67.

    Synaptics' original strength was touchpads used in notebook computers, but analysts see the company as a rising pure play on the fast-growing fingerprint sensor market. Fingerprint sensors secure devices by "reading" fingerprints and unlocking a device only for authorized users.

    IDC/Gartner estimates the market, not including Apple, will surge from 30 million devices in 2013 to 530 million by 2016. And an increasing number of those devices will be in smartphones and mobile devices, whereas notebook computers had previously shown the strongest use of the technology.

    "We believe due to the shift toward mobile, (2014) represents the first of a multi-inning growth opportunity within FP sensors," Schreiner wrote.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    March 25th

    by grandmaster2986 Mar 25, 2014 1:43 PM
    js291955 js291955 Mar 30, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    Yes, there will be a lot of volatility after the sales numbers come out. Should be interesting. There's no volatility now because there's no data to trade on. Everyone's in the dark.

  • Reply to

    March 25th

    by grandmaster2986 Mar 25, 2014 1:43 PM
    js291955 js291955 Mar 28, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Yes, they are legally required to report Lemtrada sales at the end of each quarter. It's part of the contract with Genzyme and written into the GCVRZ rights agreement.

  • Reply to

    March 25th

    by grandmaster2986 Mar 25, 2014 1:43 PM
    js291955 js291955 Mar 26, 2014 2:43 AM Flag

    How can Sanofi report Lemtrada sales on March 25th for Q1 when Q1 ends on March 31st? After the end of Q1, it'll take another 2 weeks to summarize the data. Sales will be reported around April 15th, I guess.

  • Reply to

    Non standard options - what am I missing?

    by rjones47421 Mar 6, 2014 9:20 AM
    js291955 js291955 Mar 6, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Yes, they are the result of the reverse split and are difficult to trade. I talked to TD Ameritrade about them and even though they are difficult to trade, you can exercise them if you want to. For example, if you bought the non-standard $2 put (before the reverse split), you can exercise it and put your stock to the put seller for $20/share.

  • Less successful is Samsung’s take on the fingerprint-unlock system made popular by Apple with the iPhone 5S. Like the 5S, the S5’s home key features an integrated fingerprint scanner, which can be used to unlock the phone or authenticate purchases online (Samsung is partnering with PayPal to enable this feature, though it doesn’t validate purchases from the Google Play Store). Samsung’s version requires a vertical swipe over the home button to activate the scanner, and we found it to be quite unreliable and virtually impossible to activate when holding the phone in one hand. It can store up to three different digits, but it was very particular about the speed and orientation of the swiping motion used — if we weren’t doing a perfectly straight swipe down, it would refuse to unlock the phone.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • "Growth in worldwide smartphone shipments is expected to slow significantly in 2014, as the devices start to saturate several mature markets, according to researcher International Data Corp.

    IDC's Ryan Reith said 2014 will be "an enormous transition year for the smartphone market," with growth declining " more than ever before."

  • Reply to

    dead money

    by ruswise Feb 24, 2014 10:28 AM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 24, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I guess I forgot. What happens in July?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Another high level manager signaling a top in SYNA stock.
    Looks like a January to March, 2014 quarterly miss in revenue and EPS.
    Look out for a revenue and profit warning soon.

  • He has 8617 shares left.
    Probably sees a top and a January to March quarterly earnings miss.

  • BEIJING, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The explosive growth of smartphone sales in China, the world's biggest smartphone market, has come to a halt as unit shipments declined for the first time in more than two years, data firm IDC said on Thursday.

    Shipments of smartphones in China fell 4.3 percent to 90.8 million in the fourth quarter from 94.8 million units in the previous one, the first drop-off since the second quarter of 2011, according to IDC.
    "The world has increasingly looked to China as the powerhouse to propel the world's smartphone growth and this is the first hiccup we've seen in an otherwise stellar growth path," said Melissa Chau, a senior research manager with IDC.

    "We are now starting to see a market that is becoming less about capturing the low-hanging fruit of first time smartphone users and moving into the more laborious process of convincing existing users why they should upgrade to this year's model."

    Sentiment: Sell

  • The following is the CURRENT timeline for achieving (or not) the First Sales Milestone of $2/share. (FSM)
    It will change as other countries make their "First Commercial Sale"

    2014
    Q1: German sales count towards FSM
    Q2: German sales count towards FSM. Also April 1, 2014 is considered the "Product Launch" date
    Q3: German sales count towards FSM
    Q4: German sales count towards FSM

    2015
    Q1: TBD
    Q2: non-Major Markets sales count toward FSM
    Q3: non-Major Markets sales count toward FSM
    Q4: non-Major Markets sales count toward FSM

    Note: Major Markets (US, UK, Spain, France, Germany, Italy) "First Commercial Sale" must occur before the end of 2015.

    2016
    Q1: non-Major Markets sales count toward FSM
    Q2: TBD
    Q3: TBD
    Q4: TBD

    2017 and beyond
    No sales in any market count toward FSM#1

  • Reply to

    How is the lawsuit going to affect GCVRZ?

    by huy0815 Feb 11, 2014 2:54 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 12, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    Read my recent post:
    "What we'd like to see from Germany in April 2014 ($15 million in sales for Q1)"

    The appeal process will take a long time I suspect because the FDA is inept and incompetent. Sanofi is preparing an appeal and close to filing the appeal.

    There are lots of Seeking Alpha articles you can read to get info.
    Google "GCVRZ" and "Chris DeMuth"

    Any investment in GCVRZ will take a long time to play out. Probably 2-3 years.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Q4 Con Call

    by grandmaster2986 Feb 10, 2014 3:58 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 11, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    Hey GM,

    If you own 200K of GPT, you already ARE a millionaire.
    200,000 shares times $5.76 = $1,152,000
    Cogratulations! Unless you are on margin.

  • In April, Sanofi will report the first quarter of Lemtrada revenue from Germany. These are the first sales that will count toward the First Sales Milestone of $400 million.

    What would be a good number?
    There are currently three groups of revenue that can contribute to the First Sales Milestone:
    1. Major Markets (excluding the US). Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the UK
    2. non-Major Markets we know of that have approved Lemtrada: Canada, Australia, Mexico.
    3. non-Major Markets that we do not know that have approved Lemtrada: 29 countries that probably include some European countries like Belgium, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, etc.

    1. Major Markets:
    Germany's population is 82 million
    France's population is 66 million
    Italy's population is 61 million
    Spain's population is 47 million
    The UK's population is 63 million
    Total Major Market population = 319 million

    2. Non-Major Markets that we know of:
    Canada's population is 35 million
    Australia's population is 23 million
    (I am leaving out Mexico because it may be too poor to contribute much revenue)
    Total non-Major population = 58 million

    3. Some Non-Major Markets that we do not know of:
    Belgium's population is 11 million
    The Netherlands' population is 16 million
    Switzerland's population is 8 million
    Austria's population is 8 million
    Sweden's population is 9 million
    Total non-Majors we don't know of population = 52 million

    Total = 429 million
    Assume the MS population is evenly distributed..

    We need $400 total to reach the First Sales Milestone.
    Germany is 82/429ths of the total population = 19.1%
    In 4 quarters, Germany needs to bring in $19.1% of $400 million = $76.5 million.
    In 1 quarter, Germany needs to bring in 1/4 of $76.5 million = $19.1 million.

    We need to see Germany report at least $15 million in sales when they report Q1 sales in April, 2014.
    $15 million is good because:
    a) there are more countries contributing to the First Sales Milestone.
    b) The trend in sales is usually up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Notes from the Q4 2013 Sanofi Conference Call

    by js291955 Feb 6, 2014 9:06 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 8, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    Hi GM
    Oops, I made a mistake.

    The sales data for April, 2014 WILL be significant for Germany because Germany's 4 quarter sales data to be included in the First Sales Milestone runs from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014. April 2014's Germany sales data may cause a significant upside or downside move in the GCVRZ price.

    One other thing to remember. There are 6 so-called "Major Markets", i.e. the US, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the UK. All other markets are "non-Major Markets" and the sales data that is counted toward the First Major Milestone for these 26 countries is not counted until the period from April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016. So, you can see that the drama might not end until the end of 2015 when most of the "non-Major Market" data from the other 26 countries (and counting?) comes in. Here's an extract from a recent Seeking Alpha article:

    "In addition to these six major markets, Lemtrada sales in other nations that occur between April 1, 2015 and March 31, 2016 will also be included in the calculation to determine whether or not this first milestone is achieved. On December 13, 2013, Sanofi announced that Canada approved Lemtrada, and on December 19 the drug received Australian approval. Therefore, it is already evident that a great many nations should contribute revenue towards a potential reaching of this initial milestone, and the corresponding $2 payment holders would then receive."

  • Reply to

    Notes from the Q4 2013 Sanofi Conference Call

    by js291955 Feb 6, 2014 9:06 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 8, 2014 8:40 PM Flag

    None of the revenue numbers from any country are included in any country's First Sales Milestone revenue when sales data is reported in April 2014. The trend for Germany might be significant but even Germany's sales data reported in April 2014 is not counted in Germany's First Sales Milestone.

    The first time any sales data for any country is included in its First Sales Milestone numbers is when data for Q2 is reported in July 2014. Even then, only the German data is included.

    There's no real digital event in the near future except for a possible successful appeal to the FDA. The other potential digital event could be if Germany reports surprisingly high Q2 sales in July 2014,then the CVRs would jump significantly.

    The most important data event will probably be in October 2014 when the majority of the 32 countries that have approved Lemtrada start reporting their Q3 sales figures.

    Up until that point, it's all going to be speculation and guessing.

  • Reply to

    Notes from the Q4 2013 Sanofi Conference Call

    by js291955 Feb 6, 2014 9:06 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 7, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    My guess is that it's probably going to be in the first two weeks of April since the sales data is quarterly based because of the milestones. Last update was on Jan. 16th, 2014, so around April 16th.

  • Reply to

    Notes from the Q4 2013 Sanofi Conference Call

    by js291955 Feb 6, 2014 9:06 PM
    js291955 js291955 Feb 6, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    Note this sentence from the quote from the conference call:

    "We fully expect that 3 quarters of this world (1.7 million patients) will have access to Lemtrada"
    That means: 1.275 million patients will have access to Lemtrada! Excluding the US.

    If only 4% of these 1.275 million patients generate Lemtrada revenue in 2014 and 2015, the First Sales Milestone goal is surpassed. I like these odds.

JOY
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