My prediction? Bankruptcy for NES in March, 2015
"The OPEC's contentious decision to keep its production target, leaving the market with a supply glut, could trigger a wave of debt defaults by U.S. shale oil producers, warn analysts.
The 12-member oil cartel on Thursday said it would stick to its output target of 30 million barrels a day, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices, with U.S. crude futures tumbling nearly $6 to $67.75 on Friday - the lowest since May 2010.
Neil Beveridge, senior oil analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, told CNBC the plunge in oil prices raises the risk of bankruptcy for U.S. shale players."
Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, WHILE IN POSSESSION OF MATERIAL, NONPUBLIC INFORMATION ABOUT THE SECURITY.
Examples of insider trading cases that have been brought by the SEC are cases against:
•Corporate officers, directors, and employees who traded the corporation's securities after learning of significant, confidential corporate developments.
Let's look at this again: "Corporate officers, directors, and employees who traded the corporation's securities after learning of significant, confidential corporate developments."
The CEO KNEW that the XTO pipeline deal would go through and bought NES stock at $8 when the rest of us had no idea what was happening with the deal.
I've been trading for 30 years and I've never seen such an obvious case of insider trading.
Now that Halliburton has Baker Hughes, NES is of no use to Halliburton.
Halliburton and Baker Hughes are now NES's competitors.
Guess who's going to win that fight?
A pitiful attempt to prop up a loser. Now if the CEO had bought 500,000 shares, that might make a statement. He already owns 10 million shares so another half million would have been easy.
Except for the AFFO "error" and cover up, unencumbered assets should be the same as before the AFFO issue. Given that ARCP was trading above $12 for many months, it makes sense that ARCP should be trading at or near $12 assuming you believe that the 2013 and 2014 financial statements have no other issues. Given the uncertainty, ARCP might stay in the $9-$10 range until January. There is also the 10% dividend to keep ARCP's stock price from falling further.
If the $13 Billion is unencumbered of even the bank line of credit, ARCP should be trading above $12 even with the 2013 and 2014 financials uncertainty.
There's no way NES will ever get out from under the $575 million debt load. Just declare bankruptcy now, screw the banks and get new financing. In the long run (about a year) it's the inevitable path for NES anyway.
From $549 million to $571 million.
There's no way this company will ever be profitable when every quarter they go backward by $22 million.
In Q3, they reported $2 million in cash. In Q4 they'll report that they have no cash, just goodwill.
An analyst on the conference call asked the idiot CEO if he could provide a more quantitative picture of the company's prospect going forward. The CEO said no, we only provide qualitative forecasts. Gee, I wonder why?
"The shale-oil drilling boom in the U.S. is showing early signs of cracking.
Rigs targeting oil sank by 14 to 1,568 this week, the lowest since Aug. 22, Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) said yesterday. The Eagle Ford shale formation in south Texas lost the most, dropping nine to 197. The nation’s oil rig count is down from a peak of 1,609 on Oct. 10.
“We are officially seeing the slowdown in oil drilling,” James Williams, president of energy consulting company WTRG Economics, said by telephone from London, Arkansas, yesterday. “There’s no doubt about it now. We’re already down 49 rigs since the peak in October. It’ll have fallen by more than 100 rigs by the end of year.”
Price will stay around $60 until near the close.
This happens a lot with SYNA. Of course the manipulators will get away with it and profit at our expense.
There is NO chance the US will buy oil to support prices. The US government likes the fact that gasoline prices have dropped, supporting the US economy. Who's going to vote for someone who forces oil prices higher? No one.
"The Company will work with the Audit Committee and the Audit Committee's independent advisors to determine the adjustments required to be made to the Company's previously issued financial statements, including the calculation of AFFO, as expeditiously as possible. Upon completion of this process, which could identify further required adjustments in addition to those discussed above, the Company will restate prior financial statements and amend its prior periodic filings to the extent required and update its earnings guidance at that time."
THIS IS IMPORTANT:
"The Company will file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2014 after the amended filings have been made."
Hopefully we will get the amended Q1 and Q2 financial statements next week.
It seems that if they already have a stock repurchase program in effect, which they do, they could continue unless the regulators told them to stop. I don't think the regulators will tell them to stop. Why would they?
"We would look at selling assets, particularly high value assets, in order to buy back shares, if the stock price stays at these levels."
It's important to note that they already have a stock repurchase plan ongoing. My guess is that they are aggressively buying back as much as they can. Look for an announcement of a new stock repurchase plan soon.
"On average, Bakken and Permian shale oil producers need prices around $67 and $65, respectively, to make drilling worthwhile, according to ITG Investment Research. At the other end of the range are the Cana Woodford shale in Oklahoma, where producers need $100 to make a profit, and the Anadarko formation on the Texas-Oklahoma border, where $79 is the threshold. "
It's not clear from this stupid press release:
"SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Oct. 31, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Nuverra Environmental Solutions, Inc. (NES) ("Nuverra") today announced that it will host its third quarter 2014 conference call on Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 4:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. PT). On the call, management will discuss Nuverra's financial results and business outlook. To participate on the conference call, please dial 1-888-632-5007 or 1-913-312-0378 and reference conference ID 1771398. An audio replay of the conference call will be available approximately one hour after the conclusion of the call through November 14, 2014. The audio replay can be accessed by dialing 1-888-203-1112 or 1-719-457-0820 and entering access code 1771398."