As well as his thoughts on the other 10 moving parts.
I think this statement from the press release announcing the earnings release date suggests that the conference call with analysts will be live:
"ITT/ESI also will conduct a conference call with financial analysts that morning at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss the information released."
For me, this is a bullish sign that they are confident enough to answer live questions.
Technical analysis is mostly a scam to sell products to "investors" who can't or don't want to evaluate the fundamentals of a stock.
The TA BS you cited could be reduced to "the trend is your friend", which is probably more helpful than the TA is. At least you don't have to pretend to understand it.
ITT Educational Services
My first earnings short-squeeze play is postsecondary degree program provider ITT Educational Services (ESI - Get Report), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect ITT Educational Services to report revenue of $211.60 million on earnings of 10 cents per share.
The current short interest as a percentage of the float for ITT Educational Services is extremely high at 63%. That means that out of the 16.68 million shares in the tradable float, 10.52 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a monster short-interest on a stock with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a large short-covering rally for shares of ITT Educational Services post-earnings that forces the bears to cover some of their positions.
From a technical perspective, ITT Educational Services is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been uptrending over the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of $3.60 to its recent high of $5.54 a share. During that uptrend, this stock has been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of ITT Educational Services within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade post-earnings.
From the SEC filing:
"The CtW Investment Group works with union-sponsored pension funds sponsored by affiliates of Change to Win to enhance long-term shareholder value through active ownership. These funds have over $250 billion in assets under management and are substantial ITT shareholders."
I think it was filed after the close of trading on July 9th but I don't know for sure.
Modany and Fitzpatrick are cancers living inside of ESI and need to be removed. Modany can't even hold a conference call for fear of too many critical questions. CAN'T EVEN HOST A CONFERENCE CALL?! Can you imagine after the Q2 earnings release another one of those bogus "pre-prepared" Q&As?
Luckily, large shareholders with balls are getting into the game.
"July 8, 2015
"Dear ITT Shareholder,
We urge you to join us in voting against the re-election of directors Joanna T. Lau and Samuel L. Odle at ITT Educational Services’ (NYSE: ESI) annual meeting on July 27, 2015. Ms. Lau and Mr. Odle are the only directors standing for re-election at this year’s annual meeting who have served prior to April, 2015.1 These directors and the entire board have failed to properly oversee or demand accountability from ITT’s executives, and as a consequence have put shareholders at risk.
As we describe below, the board’s failure to properly oversee the accounting decisions, internal controls, and regulatory compliance more broadly have resulted in multiple enforcement actions by both state and federal prosecutors and regulators, culminating in an accounting fraud suit filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).2 In response to the steady stream of bad news over the past year, ITT’s share price has fallen 75%, including nearly 40% over the past quarter.3 Nevertheless, the board has failed to hold either executives or its own members accountable, and has instead:
•Retained its classified board structure, denying shareholders a vote on all board members, while also promoting former Audit Committee Chairman John E. Dean to Executive Chairman.
•Increased pay significantly for both CEO Kevin M. Modany and CFO Daniel M. Fitzpatrick, despite the company’s dramatic share price decline.
•Retained Modany and Fitzpatrick until August 2015, and for 18 months thereafter as consultants, despite clear evidence that each officer misled the company’s shareholders, creditors, and independent auditor, as well as, potentially, the board itself.
These failures speak specifically to the roles that Ms. Lau and Mr. Odle play on the board, with Ms. Lau having served on the Audit Committee since 2003, and Mr. Odle serving on the Compensation and Nominating and Governance Committees since 2006, and chairing the latter since 2012."
"China's securities regulator banned shareholders with stakes of more than 5% in a company from selling stock over the next six months, and vowed to "punch back" against illegal market activities by investigating "malicious short selling."
The SEC should have a nickname: "So Easily Corrupted"
I'd like to believe that the DOE will give the $80 million LOC back to ESI in the next two years. That would a very positive event. Unfortunately I think the DOE will wait until 2019. I agree that keeping a cushion of cash is preferable to paying off the PEAKS/CUSO debt. I frankly cannot envision a scenario where ESI goes bankrupt. They will adapt to the prevailing political climate and student demand for classes and stay profitable. I have NEVER SEEN any short explain in any DETAIL how a bankruptcy would occur. The only scenario I can envision is if the DOE pulls all federal money from ESI. I can't see that happening. ESI is adapting to the DOE's agenda. That's what the DOE wants. They want ESI to evolve into a more or less model for profit school. That's all. They don't want to put them out of business.
"Strayer Education, Inc. (STRA) today announced that on July 2, 2015, it prepaid the outstanding principal balance of its term loan facility, and amended its existing credit agreement dated November 8, 2012. The amendment extends the maturity date of the revolving credit facility from December 31, 2016 to July 2, 2020, and increases available borrowings from $100 million to $150 million, with an option to increase the commitments under the revolving facility by an additional $50 million. Currently, there are no outstanding borrowings under the amended credit facility."
From Bloomberg Business:
"Law schools exist for a lot of reasons, but a pretty important one is to prepare people to be lawyers. By that standard, a large handful of institutions seem to be failing. Last year, 10 law schools were UNABLE TO PLACE MORE THAN 30 percent of their graduating class in permanent jobs that required passing the bar, according to ABA data. Those job numbers don't include positions that schools fund for their graduates or people who say they are starting their own practice.
At the University of Massachusetts School of Law, the American school with the worst job outcomes by this measure, just 22 percent of people who graduated in 2014 got those types of law jobs.
“We are a work in progress, and we need to improve our bar-pass rate and improve our employment, and I am not embarrassed about that,” says Mary Lu Bilek, the dean of U-Mass Law. Forty-two of the 60 U-Mass Law students who took the bar in February or July 2013 passed the test. The school counted 81 graduates in 2014. Bilek notes that the school's employment numbers have improved in recent years and says she doesn’t think it’s fair to discount people who have OPTED TO DO OTHER THINGS with their J.D. besides become lawyers."
I sure you are right that the recession numbers will not be good. In 2008, at the semiconductor manufacturing firm I worked for, 6000 out of 11,000 employees were laid off, without benefits, and I'm quite certain they didn't hire anyone until about 3 years later. It would have been a very bad time for most graduates in any field because they were competing with more experienced laid off workers for the same jobs. It ridiculous to even consider those statistics as meaningful.
A technician who worked for me at my first job at a semiconductor manufacturer got his Electronics degree from ITT Tech. He was hardworking and didn't need much supervision. He now works at Intel and has been in the industry for more than 25 years. It's not easy to get a job at Intel. I know because I interviewed there and they didn't hire me. I wouldn't have liked it there anyway. They are WAY too serious.