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Joy Global, Inc. Message Board

js291955 56 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 33 minutes ago Member since: May 31, 2009
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  • js291955 js291955 Sep 5, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    If 64% of the float is short, that means that 164% of the float will be buying if there's any good news. Longs will be buying and shorts will be buying. It's going to be fun!

  • Reply to

    respect everyones opinion but....

    by contra_guy Sep 4, 2014 4:04 PM
    js291955 js291955 Sep 5, 2014 5:19 AM Flag

    I listen to everyone's opinion because the puzzle is put together using everyone's opinion and facts. Unless you have unlimited time to do research, it's good to have input from the opposite side of the trade. The shorts on this board have presented very few verifiable facts to support their position, even when challenged. I do verify everything everyone posts, including longs, because, as you say, trust your own opinion. My opinion is that we are most likely to go up than down. I'd like to see $18/share. You are right about ignorance, it's the easy way out of personal responsibility.

  • Modany is out. He's been sidelined for leading the company in the wrong direction. That's a relief. ESI needs new leaders and a lawyer is the right choice to lead ESI in this situation.

    "On August 4, 2014, the Board also established a new office of Executive Chairman of the Board, until a new Chief Executive Officer is hired, after which the office of Chairman of the Board will be filled by an independent director. John E. Dean, who has served as a member of the Board since 1994, was appointed Executive Chairman of the Board. Mr. Dean is an attorney who has specialized in higher education law since April 1985. Mr. Dean has been a partner at the Law Offices of John E. Dean since June 2005. Mr. Dean has also served as a principal of Washington Partners, LLC, a public affairs firm, since June 2002."

  • js291955 js291955 Sep 5, 2014 2:52 AM Flag

    Yahoo has the float at 16.2 million shares.
    Nasdaq, as of 8/15/2014, has short interest at 10.4 million shares

    If you use these numbers, then 64% of the float is shorted.

  • The apparent reason that ESI dropped on August 4th was that their real estate deal fell through.

    Here's what Bloomberg had to say: "The real estate deal was canceled after the buyer asked for additional time for due diligence, and ITT declined because it would have limited the company’s options to negotiate with other parties, ITT said. "

    Maybe ESI should have gone UP because to me this whole situation looks like ESI was in a strong position financially to be able to say that the deal wasn't good enough and that they were going to look elsewhere or maybe just not do any deal because they really don't need the cash.

    All of the other issues were already known on August 4th so those other issues, i.e. PEAKS, CFPB, SEC, etc. were NOT the reason ESI dropped on August 4th.

    It's just bizarre that a company cancels a deal because they are in a strong position and the market interprets it entirely backwords. Makes me want to buy more before any announcement from ESI. An irrational market it can be!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Starry nights city lights coming down over me
    Skyscrapers and stargazers in my head
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting unknown
    This dirty stock was burning down in my dreams
    Lost and found range bound in my dreams

    And screaming
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting
    And screaming
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting

    Forget me nots and second thoughts live in isolation
    Heads or tails and fairytales in my mind
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting unknown
    The rage and love, the story of my life
    The ESI of suburbia is a lie

    And screaming
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting
    And screaming
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting unknown
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting
    And screaming
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting unknown
    Are we we are, are we we are the waiting unknown

    Thanks, Green Day


  • Reply to


    by rogerabc100 Aug 29, 2014 9:25 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 30, 2014 12:42 AM Flag

    Nice summary! My comment on #3 is that there is no way the DOE will withhold funds for 21 days. They see the chaos they caused with COCO students and employees and will not repeat that. I also do not see the DOE withholding any funds from ESI at all. There is no reason even to withhold funds for even 3 days, the normal withholding time period. As the danger of government intervention recedes, there will be less and less reason to sell properties and lease them back. They have adequate cash and additional liquidity from their lenders and good cash flow. Even Senators, specifically from Iowa, who have been working to destroy the for profit colleges have pulled back in horror from the DOE mess and sent letters to the DOE and had meetings with them to tell the DOE to back off and quit destroying students' and employees' lives.

  • js291955 js291955 Aug 30, 2014 12:27 AM Flag

    Your point is well taken but I believe that some people do have a fairly good idea of how they are doing. Analysts get some preferred access to management and while management will likely not be specific with information, analysts can read between the lines. The latest analyst reports I've read are from hold to buy. It hard to say what info they have but there are always leakers in every company. Checking_here obviously has no info.

  • The DOE does not want to repeat it's blunder with COCO: (NOTE CONCERN OVER SCREWING STUDENTS)

    "The cash flow crisis at Corinthian began on June 19 when the Department of Education (ED) forced the school to wait 21 days — instead of the customary three — after submitting enrollment data to draw down Federal funds. ED acted after the for-profit college failed to address allegations that it altered grades and attendance figures while falsifying job placement data in its marketing materials. But Corinthian would have run out of money if it had to wait 21 days for Federal cash. Corinthian's dire straights took ED by surprise, and began to look for a way to either sell or shut its campuses. In a June 23 statement, ED said that it's concern was "to prevent the immediate closure of the career training program chain and prevent suddenly disrupting the education of 72,000 students and the jobs of 12,000 employees." ED signed a Memorandum of Understanding requiring the company to sell itself over the next six months and hire an ED-approved monitor to "oversee its finances and the sales process."

    In addition, the CFB is WILLING TO NEGOTIATE A SETTLEMENT with COCO. This would apply to ESI as well.

    "The buck didn't stop there. In what has been an eventful week for the Santa Ana, Calif.-based company, the SEC filing also indicated that the company is facing an inquiry from Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which contacted Corinthian a day after the $19 million student loan portfolio sale. The CFPB asserts that Corinthian violated the Dodd-Frank Act and Fair Debt Collections Practices Act. The filing also stated that the CFPB were ready to negotiate a settlement."

    BOTTOM LINE: ESI is lucky that COCO crashed and burned first. The DOE and the CFPB don't want to repeat their mistakes.

  • Reply to

    Shorts do provide a servcie

    by contra_guy Aug 28, 2014 5:47 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 28, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    On August 23rd, Columbine Capital put out a report stating that ESI's book value is $15.25 per share. Cash is more than $7 per share. I think most shorts have the irrational belief that ESI will be driven into bankruptcy like COCO was. I don't see this happening for many reasons.

  • Reply to

    ITT earnings outlook

    by fife14 Aug 27, 2014 11:54 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 28, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Thanks for your reply. You do have some valid points and you may end up being right. If so, I hope ESI drops below $4 because that's when I'll profit the most since I own more puts than stock. Above $9, I profit if ESI somehow pulls itself out of the frying pan. I do believe however that the biggest reason that most shorts are so negative on ESI is because the DOE drove COCO into bankruptcy and they think the DOE will do the same. That's precisely the reason I think the DOE, etc. will not be so hard on ESI and will work with them more. The jackasses at the DOE screwed about 70,000 students who were in the middle of their classes by driving COCO out of business. That was intelligent, wasn't it? I don't think they want to repeat that #$%$ so that's why I think ESI will avoid the worst case scenario. Who knows? All I know is that I want something DRAMATIC to happen. Either a drop to $4 or less after earnings or a recovery above $9.50. That's what I want.

  • Reply to

    ITT earnings outlook

    by fife14 Aug 27, 2014 11:54 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 28, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Ok freetz, let's hear your reasons why you think ESI will go down from here. I hear a lot of noise from shorts but nothing coherent. Let me help you out. You think:

    1. Q2 will be a money losing quarter
    2. The DOE will cut off funds.
    3. Student population will drop by 15%
    4. Lenders will pull all financing for ESI
    5. DOE will shut down ESI because of accounting issues.
    6. ESI has burned through $200 million in cash in the last 3 quarters and has none left.
    7. Nobody wants to buy ESI's real estate and lease it back to them.
    8. ESI will raise cash by issuing stock. Raise $200 million by issuing 20 million shares thus diluting shareholders by 50%.
    9. SEC detects accounting fraud and shuts down all ESI's campuses.
    10. other

    Which, if any, are your reasons for thinking ESI will go down to 6, 5, 4, 3, or whereever you think it is going?

    If freetz has no opinion, other shorts should jump in and let me know what I'm missing.

    I'm long at $8.22 and have October $6 Puts (in case you are right and bankruptcy occurs)

    Let me know. I'm waiting for a definitive short thesis!

  • Reply to

    ITT earnings outlook

    by fife14 Aug 27, 2014 11:54 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 28, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    Nice summary of what we need to hear from the company. I'd also be interested in their cash position and how their CEO search is going. I'd also like hear that the commitments from lenders is at least the $100 million previously announced and preferably more. They might also be able to put a positive spin on the restatements related to the PEAKS private student loan program. Lastly, I'd like to see a positive and significant EPS. Oh, one more thing, I'd like to see a significant share repurchase program announced, say $50 million with the goal of repurchasing 5 million shares. Shorts would soil their pants!

  • ESI cash = $228 million
    ESI debt = $50 million
    ESI has $7.25/share in cash.

    ESI real estate = $120 million
    ESI real estate = $5.75/share

    If ESI went out of business today, there would be $13.00 per share in cash for shareholders.

    Let the DOE put them out of business. Who cares? There are no creditors to steal the cash!
    The DOE has always been, and still is, in the business of screwing students. What's so different now?

  • Reply to

    Conversation with IR officer of ESI

    by taexpert928 Aug 27, 2014 1:58 AM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 27, 2014 3:43 AM Flag

    Thanks for posting the results of your conversation. I think you got the answers to two big questions. The first is when Q2 results will be announced, i.e. Friday, Aug. 29th. That's useful info. The other useful answer was that previous year's reports will be revised and reported on Aug. 29th with the PEAKS program student loan data. I think we already know the answers to the other questions:

    1) Yes, leaves in early 2015
    2) Yes
    4) Big delay because was waiting for direction on how to account for PEAKS program student loan data.
    6) Probably
    7) Yes

    I'm sure she has a bad attitude because all of her stock options are now worthless because of ESI's low price.

  • Reply to

    Termination Fee = $500,000

    by js291955 Aug 27, 2014 2:03 AM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 27, 2014 2:32 AM Flag

    My guess is Verolube will pay the $500,000 and walk away from the deal. Verolube's exclusivity ends on August 29th and NES will be able to sell TFI to another buyer if they can find one. It hard to believe any other company would be interested. Verolube's recent "proposal" to reduce the TFI purchase price from $175m to $145m is just a stalling tactic to get out of the deal. If Verolube goes through with the sale, most of the price they pay will be in Verolube stock. This means NES will not get all the cash they needed or wanted.

  • Reply to

    BioLargo’s AOS Filter will benefit NES

    by untera.l123 Aug 26, 2014 9:28 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 27, 2014 2:24 AM Flag

    It doesn't help NES. It's a threat to their business. Here's an explanation from BioLargo's website:

    Petroleum Opportunities

    The petroleum industry has multiple settings in which water treatment is either essential, could get legislated, or simply is good business. Detailed below is a sampling of these and the BioLargo approaches to addressing them.

    Fracturing Operations:

    A majority of gas wells in the US utilize hydraulic fracturing to stimulate the production. A number of these are in drought areas and so access to fresh water is an issue and alternative sources must be found. Shale gas prospects, due to their location, generally do not have this issue. But they have issues with disposal of flow back water and produced water. In both cases the principal hurdles to re-use in fracturing operations are dissolved solids, bacteria and in some cases, radioactive elements. The bacteria in particular are pernicious. If returned to the reservoir, they are prone to multiply and produce H2S and other harmful species. The BioLargo platform technology CupriDyne(TM)-SAP is uniquely suited. It will eradicate bacteria and sop up heavy metals and radioactive elements. It does so by the controlled release of the powerful oxidant Iodine in stable molecular form. This environmentally friendly element does the job at small doses. The reaction products can easily be harvested. Another feature of the technology is that it simply combines with other needed water treatment steps such as filtration and desalination.

  • Consummation of the Acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, as well as the Buyer’s satisfaction with the results of confirmatory due diligence with respect to certain legal and environmental matters. In addition, the Buyer’s obligations are subject to a financing contingency that provides the Buyer until June 10, 2014 to arrange committed financing to complete the transactions contemplated by the Agreement, subject to extension by up to fifteen (15) calendar days, with a final termination date of June 25, 2014; provided, that if the Buyer fails to satisfy the financing contingency and the Company is not in breach of the Agreement at that time, the Buyer will be obligated to pay the Company a termination fee of $500,000.

  • Reply to

    Seller is going to pay less, but still buy

    by stockicon_2000 Aug 25, 2014 5:33 PM
    js291955 js291955 Aug 26, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    It's actually more than $30 million cash less than expected because Verolube will pay more of the $145 million purchase price in stock instead of cash. If they dump $30 million of Verolube stock on NES, the total cash out of the deal is $60 million less than expected!

    I think Verolube is trying to get out of the deal by making it so unattractive that NES gives up selling it. In other words, there's a lot of doubt the deal will ever go through.

  • Monday, August 25th, 2014: ITT Educational August call option implied volatility is at 99, October is at 90, January is at 84; compared to its 26-week average of 65 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q2 results.

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