I see a weak dollar as good for stocks particularly with international presence. AAS conference going on and earnings on Fri, I see BIIB in the $450-460 area by week's end. Let's see who is closer.
I don't think they are overpriced at all. They trade at low PEGs because they are growing so rapidly. Sure, if their pipelines slow and growth slows we have another issue but right now their businesses are white hot. They are producing cures, treatments and vaccines that are literally changing the world.
It's all about results, specifically clinical trial results. I think you know a lot about biotech, and when it comes to dev stage biotech investing the most important thing in a company in my eyes is how they place the race game. You don't want to get caught up with a company that cannot deliver and issues SOs on an annual basis - even if something eventually hits its often too late for you as a retail investor to profit from it.
The low market cap is the ONLY thing that's kept me here in town as it makes the upside vs. risk more palatable for me. It still did not preclude me from dumping most of my position as I lost confidence in management. But I evaluated the overall situation (like you do) and decided a small piece of this pie is still worth holding onto for the time being.
I think they are but not sure. Anyone know when it may come?
It's not a safe haven, it's a great investment that carries volatility along with it. There is nothing overvalued about the big biotechs. I know that you know how to read fundamentals and for the big biotechs they are excellent. If you want to try to promote your bubble agenda get to it but it you should acknowledge that these companies are just killing it right now.
Protocol clearance is what they are supposed to do - it should be a given if they follow the rules and do their job. Most companies don't even announce this detail. But it did make for interesting reading as I reminded myself about the "what if" potential of the treatment.
Also, if deal were made it would have to be followed by an 8-K. I haven't seen any 8-K and its been a while. So I don't think there's any benefit to the company, and I also believe that the lack of public communication on this topic also skirts legal boundaries.
SEC regulation changes about 15 years ago prohibit the repricing of stock options for company employees. I'm not sure about insiders who are not company employees and would tend to agree that lawyers involved would keep it above board. I'm extremely #$%$ off that this occurred as it takes money away from the company and other shareholders. It's at worst illegal, and at best very sneaky and suspicious.
First, the government is not the only potential buyer. You have an entire world of governments who may be interested in protecting their people against chemical weapons attacks. Second, SNGX has the rights to the product and has to hit milestones to continue to get paid. This is not a government owned drug, it is a separate company funded by the government to build a drug that can help the government.
Now let's talk about the business. Tswenor said it spot on below about the rights to the drug. That is what is it about as this drug is far from being accepted or approved. I'm not sure how much you know about the money it costs to get a drug to market but its a lot (and a lot more than the gov't is giving SNGX). Great products fail all the time in this industry because of many reasons including running out of money and poor management. SNGX has a pipeline, so they work to sell Rivax to another suitor and take that money to stay afloat and focus on the rest of their pipeline.
One thing I left out is the possibility that Rivax is just BS. If it has merit than it can be sold as there is value in the unmet need. I'm frankly not sure but its about the only thing I've read that sounds like it has made some progress in trials.
I have an explanation. Kirk called up the execs and said, "reprice my options from $1.21 to $.61 right now" and they jumped like a bunch of jellybeans and did it. Oh and by the way, this is skirting some serious SEC regulatory issues and not even sure if its above board.
I would less fraud and more just incapable of making it work. All of the drugs are long shots in their eyes and they do a poor job of hiding it. They are a bunch of scientists and terrible business people.
Believe me this is addressed in board meetings. Eventually it will happen but I don't see it until BIIB crosses through the 500 and sustains it for a little while. Also believe they would go 5:1 or even as high as 7:1.
Its going to be interesting what they have to say about the Alzheimers results at the conference. Its unusual to piggy back like this off of strong results. I can only see more positive data being disclosed as a way to help promote the treatment.
I thought about this theory, and it definitely has merit. If I were Kirk I would consider this a real option. The company has a ton of ground floor potential in its pipeline and has no clue how to get it to market. If the stock tanks to under a $1 I have no doubt the execs will panic and try another discount trick to generate cash. Kirk could step in and take the rest of it over at pennies on the dollar. The IP from this company could be extremely valuable to a firm that can actually bring a product to market and sell it. Unfortunately this doesn't bode well for current shareholders.
I just partnered with my wife tonight. Believe me, I'll get a lot more out of that partnership than you will with this one!