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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2015 8:17 AM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Nosebleed Ratio Update

    by jshaef1 Jul 17, 2015 5:21 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 28, 2015 8:17 AM Flag

    On July 20 GOLD:BGEIX saw a high of 199.03 for the day based on stockcharts. Pet rocks, rock!!

  • Reply to

    Nosebleed Ratio Update

    by jshaef1 Jul 17, 2015 5:21 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 19, 2015 6:04 AM Flag

    "Radically-greater upside exists in the beaten-down gold and silver miners! Just this week, their leading index slumped to an astounding 12.1-year low. The last time gold and silver stocks were trading at these dismal price levels, gold and silver were trading near $350 and $5! These miners are truly priced at fundamentally-absurd levels today with gold and silver 3.3x and 3.0x higher. They will greatly leverage the metals' gains."--Hamilton

    Gold:XAU 20.89 at 7.17.15
    Gold:BGEIX 179.60 at 7.17.15

  • Reply to

    Nosebleed Ratio Update

    by jshaef1 Jul 17, 2015 5:21 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 17, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Jul 17, 2015 11:51 NY Time
    Gold/XAU Ratio 20.72

    Ground Control to Major Tom. Can you hear me, can you hear me?

  • Date BGEIX GOLD GOLD/BGEIX
    1995-07-12 7.86 387 49.24
    2015-07-10 6.81 1159 170.19
    2015-07-16 6.60 1146.60 173.42

    Gold:XAU on 2015-07-16 20.10 (Space oddity?)

  • Reply to

    I got you babe

    by jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 12:17 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 17, 2015 5:12 AM Flag

    OK--won't ask :). Good luck.

  • Reply to

    I got you babe

    by jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 12:17 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 16, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    I suppose we can wipe all the updates clean with new lows for BGEIX since 2008. In 2008 it fell below 6 for one day. Maybe this time more.

    In the category of safe havens past and present, take a look at TLT from 2007 into the end of 2008. I foresee the same kind of performance for BGEIX, but a much bigger gain in 18 months than TLT. BGEIX is oversold the most in it's history. Bonds and the US dollar are ponzis that will be seen for what they are over the next 18 mos. This is a historic opportunity to save yourself a lotta pain and heartache.

    I'd equate mid year 2007 in TLT to what mid year 2015 is for BGEIX. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    I got you babe

    by jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 12:17 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 11, 2015 7:56 AM Flag

    Date BGEIX GOLD GOLD/BGEIX
    1995-07-12 7.86 387 49.24
    2015-07-10 6.81 1159 170.19

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Jul 08, 2015 12:09 NY Time
    Gold/XAU Ratio 19.21

    Miners are stocks when stocks are down and gold when gold is down. Ratio is headed to 20 I suppose, although this is the anniversary of the Dow Jones Industrial low-in 1932 during the depression.

    Gold haters having their day--I'm still adding here.

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    For all purposes we have merely been scraping bottom since November 2014. The 7.7.15 6.94 closing is virtually the same as the lows in Dec and Nov 2014 and we could certainly "beat" them.

    So 7.7.15 was the highest close (IN HISTOREEEE :) for the ratio at 19.10--last couple of high closes late last year were in the18.90's. Gold:XAU missed the high of December by one tick. I guess there is plenty of time today on the anniversary of the 1932 Depression low for the Dow, to right that.

  • 1995-04-11 7.029366 390
    1997-02-18 7.029368 345
    1996-12-30 7.029368 368
    2015-07-01 7.03 1168
    2008-10-29 7.039727 760
    2005-04-14 7.040542 424
    2004-05-21 7.040542 385
    Date BGEIX Gold per oz

    This points to the extreme undervaluation of the miners.
    Never lower in relation to gold.

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 2, 2015 1:30 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Jul 1 2015 7.03

    As commented upon the outlook still bleak with the gold:xau over 19.

  • Reply to

    XAU:GOLD

    by jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:07 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:12 AM Flag

    slashes after net and 9--stuck under the bankstas sitting on the lid. Squashed flat! Or maybe squashed by the tons of fiat heaped on top :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:07 AM Flag

    macrotrends.net
    1439
    xau-to-gold-ratio

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 27, 2015 6:26 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Mar 10 2015 7.10
    Mar 17 2015 7.22
    Mar 31 2015 7.30
    Jun 26 2015 7.33

    Ratio (gold:xau) looks bleak--those lows in March look in danger--its darkest before the dawn and it is really a darker shade of gray now. From a historical perspective we are probably as close to the most extremely undervalued in gold stocks compared to gold as ever--a trend that started as far back as 1968 in modern history and is comparable to the early 1940s when the price of gold was fixed by our old villain pal FDR. The stock market bottomed in the great depression on July 8 1932--LOL, at least that date is not far off :)

  • Reply to

    Ted 1

    by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 4:15 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 27, 2015 6:07 AM Flag

    It is common that when the bankstas get in trouble they change the rules--but the important thing will become who makes the rules--not anything else. We are on the cusp of that now--

    [China] has accelerated reforms in the bullion market in recent years, granting more import licenses and allowing foreigners to trade bullion in offshore yuan. It announced plans on Thursday to launch a yuan-denominated gold fix to boost its influence over the pricing of the precious metal.--Reuters 6.26.15.

    He who possesses the gold and silver will make the rules. So if China manipulates the Yuan down when bidding up all the gold and silver they possess, who cares about grandfathers :). Its the ole FDR trick, but this time they bought it at the manipulated low prices (courtesy of bankstas) instead of stealing it like the low life USA politicians did! (LOL)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 4:15 AM Flag

    I recently observed that JPMorgan and other members of the 4 largest short sellers on the COMEX had never taken a loss on any newly added short position in COMEX silver futures over the past seven years...

    The proof of this resides in the data from the CFTC in the concentration section of the COT report. Every time the big 4 have increased their concentrated short position in COMEX silver, which only occurs on rising prices, they have never bought back those short sales on higher prices than originally sold, only at lower prices...

    JPMorgan and the big 4 as a whole achieved the statistically impossible; never taking a loss...

    The only reason silver has yet to truly explode in price is because JPMorgan never covered short positions to the upside. I confess to being repetitive in declaring nothing matters more to the price of silver than whether JPMorgan adds to its short position on any and every silver price rally...

    JPMorgan and the others live to speculate and manipulate. Never taking a loss automatically means a market is manipulated and no legitimate hedging takes place; there are no other possible conclusions...

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 3:28 AM Flag

    Jun 16 2015 7.43--latest higher low
    Jun 22 2015 7.44

    gold:xau hit 18.30 on Jun 22 2015--Mar 10 2015 had a high of 18.34--all time high 19.38 Dec 16. Close Jun 22 at 18.07.

    gold:bgeix closed 159.33 on Jun 22, 2015, 174.54 was the all time high Dec 16, 2014.

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 22, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    $200 to BGEIX today--if we take out the latest higher low, I'll increase the daily some. So far silver looks much stronger than gold today. It's early :)

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 22, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    Liquidation into what? More promises based on the same cloud? Tis a pruzzle--say Mao's chillens.

    In the fall gold starts trading in Chinese currency. So if they manipulate their currency down compared to gold, are they "currency manipulators" and what does that say about the "strength of other currencies." And by the way, this time these sneaky petes actually bough the stuff instead of stealing it like FDR. Of course they bought the stuff at a discount financed by the western bank squad, but is that their fault? (LOL)

    Better than any of his other thrillers?

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    This incipient increase in interest rates is warning that we may see, at some point, a widespread desire to dump bonds for cash; that would mean a jump in interest rates which would lower the prices of bonds, and the fall would cause losses to holders of bonds and other credit instruments which form the debt cloud. Hasty sales of bonds would aggravate the fall in values and reinforce the rise in interest rates. As in all cases of panic, those who panic first have the greater chance of avoiding losses.

    There is a further problem: the great majority of investors and the giant investment funds are, all of them, invested in bonds, on which they realized great profits when interest rates began to fall. But if all the big investors are owners of bonds, who are they going to sell their bonds to when they wish to liquidate them and get into cash? These investors are going to suffer big losses, because the prices of bonds will have to collapse. This is going to take place the moment that the investors think that the trend in interest rates is no longer down, but up.--Hugo Salinas Price

TIP
112.65+0.44(+0.39%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT