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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 70 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Well at least in the early AM this June 29, as it tries to exceed the BREXIT spike. Who knows really and who cares (although I have plenty of silver coins). I see so much about how it was in 1977 or 1979 or 2008. It ain't at those prices has much more risk and no chart tells you anything about the future.

    Got my first tranche of DTYS at 10.99 and while it didn't make the barchart site all time low list yesterday (6.28.16), here are some that did, replete with plenty of bond bear funds:

    DLBS Ipath Long Bond Bear
    DRV Real Estate Bear 3X Direxion
    REK Short Real Estate Proshares
    SRS Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares
    TBF Short 20+ Year Treasury Proshares
    TBT Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Proshares
    TBZ Ultrashort 3-7 Year Treasury Proshares
    TMV 20+ Year Trsy Bear 3X Direxion
    TTT Ultrapro Short 20+ Year Trsy Proshares
    TYO 7-10 Yr Trsy Bear 3X Direxion

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 27, 2016 4:41 AM Flag

    Guess what? Hedge funds are at a new all-time high on the long side exposure of gold.

    Also the Gold:bgeix ratio seems to be flooring around 115, even with the moves after BREXIT.

    After not being under 30 on the RSI 14 since 2003, the ratio has been threre pretty much since late April. Big time correction is coming soon in the miners!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 26, 2016 7:17 AM Flag

    It can happen–you can average in and be vindicated–look at the PM miners crash and then recovery for the first 6 months of this year. Still, when you look at the gold:pm stock ratio, you realize even with the recent crash in that ratio, you are only down to the extreme peaks of the ratio in 2000 and 2008. It gives truth to someone’s observation that PM mines are holes in ground next to liars and it seems to be an apt description of perpetual gold bugs who herald a new era of gold strength when it is already far above an average price since the beginning of this century. Probably firm support for PMs near zero, unlike interest rates (LOL).

  • Brexit happens and gold and trashuries continue in lockstep. The fear trade escalates. Maybe some of the GTC orders for DTYS and TBF will ht soon.

    Supply will become an issue in trashuries as soon as early next year--how much the bankstas can continue to mop up in their perpetual Ponzi is yet unknown. Not like there is any shortage of PMs either--just look at ebay any day and the proliferation of PM dealers offering the lowest premiums ever on bullion products.

  • I thought I saw 1.42% earlier this morn on the 10 Year--right now 1.49%--low is 1.40% in 2012.

  • Reply to

    BGEIX days with 9% gain

    by jshaef1 Jun 4, 2016 6:09 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 22, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    This is the end of my stay here--I'll be commenting on the DTYS board. It really doesn't matter what happens to BGEIX in July or September--we had one of the great crashes in the GOLD:BGEIX ratio and we barely got to the top of the ratio for 2000 and 2008. Gold STOCKS give you no real protection and will lag behind physical which allows some protection in your possession. Thanks gods for small miracles in the plunge in the ratio and if it should continue, good one for the bulls. All the best--see ya on the other board.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 22, 2016 5:50 AM Flag

    In 1961, the Belgian economist Robert Triffin described the dilemma faced by the country at the center of the international monetary system. To supply the world's risk-free asset, the center country must run a current account deficit and in doing so become ever more indebted to foreigners, until the risk-free asset that it issues ceases to be risk free. Precisely because the world is happy to have a dependable asset to hold as a store of value, it will buy so much of that asset that its issuer will become unsustainably burdened. The endgame to Triffin's paradox is a global, wholesale dumping of the hcenter country's securities. No one knows in advance when the tipping point will be reached, but the damage brought about by higher interest rates and slower economic growth will be readily apparent afterward.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 22, 2016 5:21 AM Flag

    Kind of hard to call bonds a bull market when the interest rate on the 10 year hasn't made a new low in 10 years--7/12-1.4%, 6/16-1.5% We spiked down to within 10 basis points recently but still haven't made a new interest rate low in 4 years. There's still time, of course.

  • Reply to

    Soros

    by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 5:59 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 6:11 AM Flag

    In what analysts say is another indication that the economy will get worse in the not-too-distant future, recent filings by billionaire financier George Soros show he dumped virtually all his holdings in major financial companies like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. His multi-billion-dollar U.S. fund also loaded up on gold, with the portfolio now holding more than $130 million worth of the precious metal.

    Data compiled by analysts based on Soros’ most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showed that during the last quarter, his American fund sold more than a million shares of the big financial companies with a value of almost $50 million. During that period, Soros Fund Management also more than doubled its position in the SPDR Gold Trust to nearly 900,000 shares.

    21 August 2012 news story above--near beginning of grinding gold bear market.

    George Soros, who once called gold “the ultimate bubble,” has resumed buying the gold ETF and shares after a three-year hiatus.--May 2016--RUN FOR THE HILLS gold buggies :)!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 5:59 AM Flag

    Real professionals NEVER divulge their position unless they are trying to set others up. Each manipulation is played with one person out front. The bulk of the people in on the trade are silent. So why would a major trader come out and say he is selling everything and buying gold unless he is looking to EXIT. They are never going to tell anyone to buy before they have. I would NEVER join them because there was no way you can guarantee that you are not being set up to be their exit. This is the real world – not the BS hype.
    M Armstrong

  • Reply to

    Bond Ponzi Reprise

    by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 5:03 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 5:18 AM Flag

    The state as it stands is completely unsustainable and I see pressures everywhere that will lead to big entities breaking into smaller ones. Even more critical is the situation in what are called emerging markets, where almost nothing works and governments are merely bribe collection agencies.

    Gold has one—and only one—thing that imparts it value in the long-term: when the economy becomes negative yielding. Naive governments around the world are repressing businesses. Democracy—tyranny of the unqualified masses—means that they vote for exactly more of what created the problems. This situation will not change until this totally anti-meritocratic system of running societies—democracy—has come to an end. And as you know it is hard to imagine that democracy will come to an end any time soon.

    This pain of negative-yields and social chaos will be very long lasting and hence very good for gold.

    So, gold must go up, but Brexit is not one of the reasons why it should. This tells me that in the short-term there will likely be a correction in gold price, hence an opportunity to trade. The market must take the price up for the right reasons, before one can be confident about the resilience of the price increase.--Jayant Bhandari

  • Bond Ponzi posts were presented as a fact, yet that doesn't mean the game will change or that we will reap gains from shorting Treasuries. This sort of thing has been going on for a long time through both high and low interest rate environments. Markets can stay irrational longer than your bets may be laid and righteousness is no guarantee of future financial success. All hail the bankstas with perpetual get outta jail free cards!
    One thing has certainly concerned me recently is the lock step coincidence of the advance of treasuries with miners and precious metals. One reason I sought refuge largely in MM funds for now. If the miners and gold are now advancing, possibly it is for the wrong reason? We shall see.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 4:28 AM Flag

    Not only should the Greek Government (and the US Government, for that matter) be in prison for these acts of fraud but so should those who advocate for and wish to assist in promulgating and hiding even more of it.--1 through 4 from market-ticker website

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 4:26 AM Flag

    A government promise to pay someone a given value in the future that you cannot raise via tax revenue at that time is in fact fraud exactly as is a private promise to pay someone in the future when you know you can't, or intentionally won't, accumulate that amount of value in the time allotted to you...

    [T]he so-called "payments" that are made are in fact all short on a value basis, and what was lent to you was not digits on a screen but was value from previous economic output. When governments that have currency-issuing power issue bonds they take that value from the economy by increasing the number of units of currency in circulation at the instant in time the bonds are sold, and by doing so decrease the value of each unit of "money" that every person who holds said money has by the exact ratable proportion to their holdings.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 4:23 AM Flag

    The United States has been doing the same thing. There is no hope in Hell of the United States being able to pay down any of the national debt either now or in the foreseeable future and in fact it has never happened in the modern era, not even under Clinton; every single dollar of said deficit spending is an act of fraud because the only means to pay such a bond is to issue new currency which ratably makes every unit in existence worth less at the instant the bond is issued.
    While you can pay back the dollars promised the inherent promise you made when you issued the bond wasn't to pay dollars but rather than pay value, and you're unable to do that because the value never existed and you never had the ability to raise it via taxation.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2016 4:21 AM Flag

    The sad reality is that this is how governments get in trouble too. It's how Detroit got in trouble, for example -- they promised to pay (via issuance of bonds and pension obligations) predicated on tax revenues that had no hope, given the arithmetic, of being able to be realized. That's fraud.

    Greece got in trouble the same way. They issued billions of Euros worth of debt far beyond their ability to tax in the present or reasonable future -- that is, by the time of the bond's maturity -- to ever pay the value of said bonds back.

    When the markets called their bluff they suddenly had a big problem.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 18, 2016 6:57 AM Flag

    I've been posting on the BGEIX message board, but decided to move here, although I may comment from time to time there. I averaged into the decline for BGEIX and called the big rally in the miners and the collapse of the GOLD:BGEIX ratio there back in December. It was really a matter of time. What happens next to gold and gold stocks, I do not know. I am completely out of BGEIX and mostly in MM funds now. Biggest opportunity I can see now is the death of the US Gov't bond bull that has carried forward for 35 years. I have some GTC orders in for DTYS and TBF at lower levels, hoping for a 2008 type climax in TLT and the long bond--but really am not certain. Unlike gold and miners, where there are plenty of warnings both ways, there is an absolute dearth of bearish news for T-bonds. If anybody can post some sources I would be obliged--welcome!

  • Thomas Hoenig, the Vice President of the FDIC, announced at the Global Economic Meeting in France that, “The market no longer determines what is adequate capital for the banking industry. Following generations of taxpayer support and ever-expanding government involvement, politicians, regulators, and lobbyists have supplanted the role of the market in determining what counts as capital, how it is calculated, and how much is enough. An artificial capital framework has thus developed, which has resulted in steadily lower levels of capital and declining quality—even blurring the distinction between debt and equity. Unfortunately, recent experience has shown that when the marketplace does finally realize it cannot trust such a framework, the consequences for the banking industry and the global economy can be dire.”

  • Reply to

    BGEIX days with 9% gain

    by jshaef1 Jun 4, 2016 6:09 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 4, 2016 6:13 AM Flag

    All the days in the history of BGEIX with gains of 9% or more over the dividend adjusted previous day are listed. 13 of them. 9 of them came in the volatile 2008-2009 period with moves of 9% or more commonplace. The performance of the ones not in that time period are shown one month and 3 months after. I'll update the current performance when I return from the summer break around the 4th of July--have a great holiday.

  • Date Price % Gain Date Price % Gain Date Price % Gain
    2009-09-02 14.37 9.14%
    1998-09-04 3.37 9.26% 1998-10-05 4.29 27.55% 1998-12-04 3.61 7.13%
    2008-12-10 9.29 9.64%
    2016-06-03 10.49 9.73% 07/05/16 ? ? 09/03/16 ? ?
    2000-02-04 3.34 9.96% 2000-03-06 3.04 -9.06% 2000-05-04 3.00 -1.30%
    2008-09-12 10.39 10.18%
    2008-11-13 7.42 12.02%
    2008-10-28 6.22 12.83%
    2008-10-29 7.04 13.25%
    2008-11-04 8.16 13.78%
    2008-10-08 10.38 13.93%
    1999-09-27 4.35 19.21% 1999-10-27 3.64 -16.27% 1999-12-27 3.48 -4.56%
    2008-11-21 7.64 24.47%

TIP
116.45-0.07(-0.06%)Jun 29 4:00 PMEDT