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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 59 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 13, 2016 8:25 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 13, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    30 year season chart for gold shows it peaking mid-May and then moving swiftly down into early July--much better after that. Go away in May and get back in on the 4th of July? Maybe--have a good WE.

    The seasona chart can be googled through Seasonal Charts Classics Gold--since you can't link anymore here.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 13, 2016 8:25 AM Flag

    In AM Century retirement accounts at close 5.12.16:

    BGEIX 18%

    Miner ETF'S 8%

    Other Miner Mut. Funds, Stocks 4% 30% total in miner/PM related

    WEAT 2%

    SJB 1%

    (inflation bonds,non dollar currencies, commodities) 2%

    ACITX (inflation indexed bonds) 4%

    Capital Preservation MMF 61%

    Total 100%

    Seems like 30% is comfortable at this point--considering the recent rise in PMs and miners.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 11, 2016 3:12 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 11, 2016 8:46 PM Flag

    See weekly candlestick chart for BGEIX at sharpcharts

    What is a 'Hanging Man'
    A hanging man is a bearish candlestick pattern that forms at the end of an uptrend. It is created when there is a significant sell-off near the market open, but buyers are able to push this stock back up so that it closes at or near the opening price. Generally the large sell-off is seen as an early indication that the bulls (buyers) are losing control and demand for the asset is waning.


    Buy back area 7.5-9? We shall see. Nobody KNOWS the future.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 11, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    Selling another $25K of BGEIX today. Still very bullish long term and still have plenty along with other miner related in the brokerage to take advantage of more extended move, but I have my doubts right now. No clue on the future--volatility is indeed increasing.

  • "Here’s the bigger picture: The PBGC, the nation’s safety net for failed pension, has total assets of about $1.8 billion and liabilities of $44.2 billion for multiemployer plans such as the Central States fund.

    A Central States failure would not only substantially reduce benefits for every worker, retiree and survivor in the Teamsters plan, but wipe out the safety net for all Americans. Among the Central States pensioners at heightened risk are the 270,000 pensioners already targeted for cuts as well as about 130,000 others who had been sheltered due to age or infirmity. And that’s why Treasury’s blanket rejection of the Central States’ application was imprudent, incorrect, and inappropriate."

    From Marketwatch--getting started before Hitlery even gets in! Banksta Gangstas--all Politicians from the same crowd.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 9, 2016 10:25 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 9, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    94 day moving average on the daily chart for BGEIX is at 7.61 (5.6.16 close). That would be a 2/3 fib retrace of the entire move up--not unheard of but certainly requiring of a "stomach." That would take us well below that below 9 gap on the weekly BGEIX chart.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 9, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    "When the "melt-up" phase ends, history indicates that the decline should be quite horrendous and go back down to a 92-96 index sell signal that ends the 92-96 index's bull market buy signal from January. And then another rise is supposed to occur because the very long-term indices are bullish. Long-termers can remain bullish, but very few people will have the stomach or the desire to remain long during a major decline (that should exceed most analysts' expectations) when the melt-up phase ends and the gold stocks decline into a 92-96 index sell signal over months."--Jeff Kern from the 321gold site.

  • Reply to

    Interesting comment 4.13.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 13, 2016 2:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 7, 2016 4:09 AM Flag

    Much like CONgress changing the mark to mark regs to mark to unicorn for the banks in early 2009, so bankstas could lie legally about their assets' worth and everyone could feel good again while Benron added the QE broth to the soup. Its the Tinkerbell phenom. Clap if you believe and really what do they all have left in CONgress and the Fed. Taint over til its over, though! The ship of fools----entertainment provided by Hitlery and You're Fired. Woohoo!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 6, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    Fascinating chart on the *day divides the night* blog on tumblr, concerning the Gold to Monetary Base ratio--we have a long long way to go, in this bull run, regardless of any short term corrections.

    Try to run, try to hide... LOL

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 2, 2016 9:23 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 4, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    Well, the ole air came outta the balloon--as we head toward that 9 gap. Never a dull moment. If you chart SLV and BGEIX on the stock chart site, they look like twins. Of course nobody can read the future, but one thing that is guaranteed in miners is extreme volatility.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 2, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    That gap on the weekly chart around the April 4 2016 week looks inviting after we have now broen through the 200 day moving average. Well, for bulls it is not very inviting, but there will be a correction at some point and that will be likely the stopping place of LEAST damage.

    The gap between the April 4 and April 11 weeks is just below 9. We are sitting at over 10.50 to end April..

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 30, 2016 6:06 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 2, 2016 3:04 AM Flag

    Since the Yahoo message boards began nixing links they have pretty well folded. BGEIX has a long history and has performed better than the well known XAU and HUI for the last 20 years.

    20 and above is not out of the question by 2020--alliterative fun. By then how many more trillions of debt will we rack up under Hitlery and how much more of that Ponzi debt be owned by Auntie Janet or the next banksta puppet? Cyberspace is our limit in debt and BGEIX share price!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 30, 2016 6:06 AM Flag

    The gold stocks are already very overbought…and if they continue higher unabated, then we will have to worry about a potential sizeable correction. The chart below shows GDX’s parent index (GDM) along with two oscillators which plot its distance from its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The oscillators show the gold stocks are the second most overbought they have been in the past 22 years. The most overbought point was early 2002 when GDM corrected 37% before climbing much higher.

    Before we worry about a sizeable correction, let me point out some very important data. The 2002 correction began when GDM and HUI rebounded 212% and 311% respectively from the major low in 2000. Thus far, the two have rallied 100% and 128% respectively.

    Furthermore, the gold stocks are only three months removed from what could be the greatest buying opportunity of all time in the sector! While this is a sensational statement, it is rooted in data and facts and not your typical gold bug doomer porn. In short, there are three major similarities between the recent bottom in the gold stocks and the 1942 low in the stock market which arguably proved to be the greatest buying opportunity ever.-Jordan Roy-Byrne-

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Update--XAU 71% above its 200 day MA and HUI 74% above its 200 day MA. Insane, but of course the whole decline of the last several years was too. Paybacks are not good for Shorty. Great WE to all!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    "Here is another statistic to show how crazy gold fever has become again. The XAU index at 86.90 as of the close yesterday (Thurs, April 28th) is a whopping 60% above the 200 day simple moving average. That's insane and is not sustainable! As far as I can tell from the daily chart of XAU that has never happened in the last 20 years. NEVER!"

    From a message borad above by somebody in JDST. I just looked and its about 68%. Oh well--this is the space age, i suppose.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM Flag

    Double digits at least for a day--10.03 (4.27.16 close)--the 200 day MA is 10.24. We closed a gap from early Sep 2014 (all of this from the weekly chart). Note, also, there is a gap recently starting around 9. Looks like a likely area to be filled on the coming pull back.

    So we are off the leper colony island that we have been on since 2014 in BGEIX--I've shuttled over $40K during this rally into Capital Preservation Fund. Yes I would buy a little back,around the gap below 9. Does taking profit mean I have to turn in my special tinfoil hat?

    Seriously, I would always keep 25% in BGEIX in non-crazy times--I've got more now--and even in the stratosphere I can envision holding some; cutting back to 5-10%. I'm not insane like the bankstas who worship reward free trashuries and other dirt nap instruments of death that they foist upon us!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 27, 2016 3:25 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 28, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    What do I know?--but the test will come eventually--10.24 is the 200 day MA for BGEIX as of the close yesterday (on the weekly chart). Could be resistance. Funny how the Yen and Gold move together--the most indebted nation's monopoly money is gold's twin? (LOL)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 27, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    If I had to guess, i would expect the usual post Fed meeting paper gold selling dump to come on the COMEX sometime tomorrow morning--you know where a couple 'bill' of sales of contracts are manufactured out of thin air by some banksta agents of the Fed and aren't they all banksta agents? There has to be a big test at some point.

    Besides all those heavily short banksta commercials have always got to pass go and collect their bucks, no matter what. By the way, what is the difference between commercials and speculators on the paper exchanges anyhow? None that I can see. All fraud 24/7!!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 4:08 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 7:51 AM Flag

    "Gold stocks have rallied by approximately 110% between mid January and mid April – something that obviously doesn’t happen very often...
    Lastly, one has to be prepared to see a “faith-testing” correction at some point. This is something that also tends to happen with unwavering regularity, and has yet to happen in the mining sector."

    Pater Tenebrarum

    Lafayette we are here :] (at the start of the correction)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 4:08 AM Flag

    Here we are in Fed Week--time to get b-slapped by Auntie and her banksta buds.

    Not like its something new or unexpected.

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