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jshaef1 39 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 24 2015 8.16

    Correction over--with this string of higher lows? We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 21, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 20 2015 8.17

    Correction still ongoing.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 19, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Sitting right at resistance for the last 4 months--if it (ABX) can go higher over the next week or so, would bode well.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 18, 2015 4:48 AM Flag

    Lawsuit Filed Against Banks For Rigging The Price Of Gold

    Against the backdrop of the Greek drama, we have this lawsuit that was filed in New York. The lawsuit accuses the members of the London fix and other bullion banks such as JP Morgan of rigging the gold market.

    The complaint is mainly centered on things that go on at the (London) fix, but by implication this lawsuit affects derivatives and paper contracts that are priced off of the fix. So it affects the Comex and a lot of interbank dealings.

    Bullion Banks Want This Lawsuit To Go Away

    The bullion banks have filed a motion to have the case dismissed. The judge is now reviewing the complaint and will decide whether to let the complaint proceed. If the case is allowed to proceed this would have two important outcomes: One would be that there would surely be a settlement for a very large amount of money — kind of like they did with LIBOR so the banks don’t have to put anyone on the stand.

    The other option would be that we go to discovery and we find out what these banks have really been doing in the gold market. Either way this will be a win for the gold market.---

    Are The Bank's Lawyers Watching Today's Action In Gold?

    Right now the internal legal departments of all these banking institutions that have been involved in price-rigging are carefully watching the desks that are doing it. This is why today’s drubbing in the metals markets is so curious. You would think these type of shenanigans would have stopped by now.-KWN

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 18, 2015 4:33 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 17 2015 8.23

    So far--as I speculated before at least the highest low has not held. More as time passes--the GOLD:XAU ratio has been sticky, so i hope we have seen the last of anything approaching 19 there.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 13, 2015 6:15 AM Flag

    So how fearful is fearful? At current levels, the HUI is trading where gold was back in 2008 at $725.
    However, it gets even worse. The HUI is trading at the same level it was at back in 2005 when gold was
    trading around $420. Gold today, even though depressed itself and down $700 from its 2011 highs is still
    at $1,220. The HUI should be near 320 based on the 2008 levels or near 550 based on the 2005 levels. If
    the market is fearful about gold, it is downright petrified about gold stocks. ...

    There is one more chart that demonstrates why the gold stocks could continue to outperform bullion itself.
    The Gold/HUI ratio has only recently come down from its highest levels since 2000. The 2000 high for
    the Gold/HUI ratio came when gold was hovering between $250 and $300 while the HUI actually fell
    under 50. The current sentiment for gold stocks is not unlike what was seen in 2000 when mentioning the
    word gold stock was liable to bring one “death stares”. Despite the recent improvement for both gold and
    gold stocks “death stares”, remain in vogue. Of course, in 2000 it was also the time to buy gold stocks and
    gold as well. As the saying goes, be greedy when others are fearful. --D. Chapman

  • Long bonds starting to fail, 10 and 30 year? 10 year has been tracing out a long bear flag and the 30 year seems to have failed to take out the top in 2013. Maybe we are finally getting a break in the 30+ year bull market for trashuries. No lower lows yet so it is just a "maybe" so far. Most big stawk dislocations start with bond pain--see the lead up to 1987 and the year 1999. Major dislocation would eventually be good for gold and BGEIX.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 13, 2015 5:49 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 11 2015 8.28

    Not sure if the bottom two will hold--have been nibbling at BGEIX each day this week as well as ASIOX and ACITX.

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 11, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    By the way, I'm averaging into BGEIX daily here and also buying ACITX and ASIOX as I believe the biggest surprise of the next 18-24 months will be the return of an inflationary environment, as often happens just before a major recession begins.

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 11, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Best place to look for this pattern is: Three Peaks and a Domed House
    Tim Wood

    June 18, 2006 article

    We are tracing out no 25 in that pattern. The article mentioned was not about gold and not really that accurate, but has a good history about the pattern which we are in.

    The traders talk blog, topic 92028 is the best chart to get a handle on how this pattern is worjing out in the GOLD:XAU ratio. One can hope that no. 25 stops before it gets to 19--I think it will because there are so many gold bears celebrating its demise about now.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 7, 2015 7:10 AM Flag

    A test around 8 looks very likely--much below and we are just bouncing on the bottom again. Or worse.

  • "What determines gold’s price trend isn’t the amount of gold bought, since the amount bought will always equal the amount sold. Instead, the price trend is determined by the general urgency to sell relative to the general urgency to buy (with the relative urgency to buy/sell being strongly influenced by confidence in the two senior central banks). To put it another way, if the average buyer is more motivated than the average seller, the price will rise, and if the average seller is more motivated than the average buyer, the price will fall. So, how do we know whether the buyers or the sellers are the more motivated group?"--Steve Saville

    True but when bankstas have access to endless paper gold to dump on markets that has some influence. Like when the monkey hammers drop tons of paper gold at their chosen times (hint, we hours of the morning, in light volume situations). hasn't been working great for them lately :)

  • Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06

  • Reply to

    Inflation surprises

    by jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 6:53 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:18 AM Flag

    The seeds of inflation have been sown. As economies slowly rebalance and recover, the inflationary pressures already present today will become more obvious. In this context, in order to formulate a view on asset allocation, it is necessary to turn to history to better understand the relationship between inflation and asset returns."--Nic Johnson

  • Reply to

    Inflation surprises

    by jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 6:53 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:17 AM Flag

    However, the process of issuing more government debt at lower yields cannot continue indefinitely. Ultimately the size of government debt relative to GDP must be brought down. Carmen Reinhardt and Ken Rogoff, in their recent paper titled “Debt Overhangs: Past and Present” showed that economic growth in advanced economies with high levels of debt/GDP, on average, lagged advanced economies with lower levels of debt by 1.2% per year. So if a period of robust growth isn’t in the cards, the remaining options are either to reduce the level of debt/GDP through fiscal austerity – a combination of higher taxes and lower spending – or inflation. Given the lack of compromise on the issues of taxes and spending achieved to date in the U.S., fiscal austerity seems unlikely in the medium term, which leaves inflation surprises or default as the most likely end games.

    The U.S. is not unique in this respect. Reinhardt and Rogoff have found that over the past 400 years inflation has been the most common way that governments have dealt with excessively high levels of debt...

  • "Further, we believe asset prices are much more sensitive to inflation outcomes relative to expectations than actual inflation levels – i.e., investors can react strongly when outcomes differ from expectations. Historically, inflation regime shifts have occurred with little warning. And once a growth spark ignites the inflation gasoline left everywhere by central banks (most recently the Fed with QE3), it may be too late to hedge the effects of inflation.

    Therefore, now may be the time for investors who are concerned about inflationary risks to focus on increasing their exposure to asset classes that tend to provide a positive beta to changes in inflation.

    While stocks and bonds have generally performed poorly during periods of high and rising inflation, a number of other asset classes have performed relatively well – including commodities, foreign currencies, gold and TIPS.

    Current environment
    Over the past five years, the total amount of U.S. public debt outstanding has risen just over 75%, as public sector deficits have been used to offset weakness in the private sector. Meanwhile, as growth has continued to be lackluster, Treasury yields have continued to decline.

  • Reply to

    Bond Ponzi Part 6

    by jshaef1 Jan 20, 2015 3:49 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:15 AM Flag

    The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger--Google it-- worth a read--not worth trying to reconstruct the missing parts (3.4.5) of the salient points in the article here as Yahoo boards have been scrooged forever. But time marches on and good things always end :)

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:11 AM Flag

    Little doubt we have started the third peak in the ratio. (GOLD:XAU)

    COTs have gold commercials shorter than ever in the last year.

    We had dumps after peaks in commercial shorts over the last year:

    Would be great if we hold 1200 gold and the ratio stays south of 19 $gold:$xau.

    The domed house is playing out and with the FED (circus) in town, timing perfect. Our long wait will be over soon and maybe the bankstas of the world will finally want to be careful what they asked for about inflation and wishing for it, as other commodities bottom well after gold and start their surges.

    When the CBs finally get their inflationary wishes watch out--averaging into ASIOX and ACITX here, and will buy small amounts of BGEIX if it gets below 8 again.

  • It is impossible, mathematically, for it to be otherwise.

    Not only should the Greek Government (and the US Government, for that matter) be in prison for these acts of fraud but so should those who advocate for and wish to assist in promulgating and hiding even more of it.--
    from The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger

  • The sad reality is that this is how governments get in trouble too. It's how Detroit got in trouble, for example -- they promised to pay (via issuance of bonds and pension obligations) predicated on tax revenues that had no hope, given the arithmetic, of being able to be realized. That's fraud.

    Greece got in trouble the same way. They issued billions of Euros worth of debt far beyond their ability to tax in the present or reasonable future -- that is, by the time of the bond's maturity -- to ever pay the value of said bonds back.

    When the markets called their bluff they suddenly had a big problem.

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