Slight adjustments here to the buying operation. I am buying $300 per day of BGEIX until it goes above 10. Will continue the buying operation under 11 when it is below its 50 MA. There seems to be little chance it will get above the 50 MA for a while. When I was buying to capture the June bottom from June through early September, I averaged just over $300 a day, while at times like the June 27 bottom, investing more, and at other times not investing, when BGEIX was strong.
I will also be buying ACITX when under its 50 day moving average. I am not wildly enthusiast about TIPs, but they may perform better than cash. Will only allocate $100 a day. I am suspending purchases of BEGBX and ASIOX for now. I will concentrateon averaging in to ACITX for now as I am less weighted there than ASIOX and BEGBX.
I was on record that we may see 7 for BGEIX in the near future. I really don't know and hope that would not happen. If it does, the slow and steady approach is the best, so as not to buy in too much too high. Any attempts to time a highly manipulated market seem futile at this point and all the articles I see waiting for signs? Well BGEIX was up 60% in one month after its Oct 2008 bottom and GDX increased by 25% in one day in Nov 2008. Good luck with your signs!!
position themselves for a new international monetary regime. This suggestion is echoed in a statement made by Liu Zhongbo of the Agricultural Bank of China in January of this year:
“Because gold has capabilities to absorb external economic shocks, growth of its use in the international monetary system will be imminent”
This statement suggests that China expects a monetary shift to happen sooner rather than later. Their aggressive push to internationalize the Renminbi and back it with substantial gold reserves, along with their sustained commitment to opening up and building the infrastructure for world leading domestic gold market, supports this contention.
In this context, we believe that gold generally, and the shares of gold mining equities in particular, are deeply undervalued.-- RJ Wilcox
Excellent overview that highlights the reason to buy gold stocks now. ABX is one of the leading components of BGEIX.. Full article is available on the gold-eagle website.
dollar trap built into the international commodity trade.
China is in essence developing an escape route for what they perceive as a looming currency crisis in connection with shortsighted US monetary policy and a dollar dominant world.
They are mitigating this issue in a couple of key ways, both of which we have written about before. They are expanding the use of the Renminbi in international trade while simultaneously developing a robust domestic gold market...
This week, Barrick’s board announced that John Thornton, a former president of Goldman Sachs, would be their next chairman. In an effort to right Barrick’s many woes, Mr. Thornton is reportedly trying to establish partnerships with Chinese companies.
One potentially interested party is rumored to be China Investment Corp. (CIC), the sovereign wealth fund responsible for investing China’s massive foreign exchange reserves. Mr. Thornton just happens to be a member of their international advisory board.
It’s probably just a matter of time now....
We believe China sees “the writing on the wall” in regard to the U.S. dollar and is taking action to
Again from the 2012 commentary “Building a Strong Economic and Financial Security Barrier for China,” Sun Zhaoxue contextualizes the above chart wonderfully:
“Especially noteworthy is that in the course of this international financial crisis, the United States shows a huge financial deficit but it did not sell any of its gold reserves to reduce its debt. Instead it turned on the printer, massively increasing the U.S. dollar supply, making the wealth of those counties and regions with foreign reserves mainly denominated in U.S. dollars quickly diminish, in effect automatically reducing its own debt...”
In other words, Quantitative Easing (QE) is, at least in part, a means for the U.S. to quietly default on its debts without saying so.
China holds $1.27 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and other U.S. dollar denominated assets, making them the United States’ largest lender. As a result, the Chinese government is particularly sensitive to monetary policies affecting the value of their massive holdings.
Since the early 1970s, starting with oil, the U.S. has used its economic and military muscle to coax the world into an odd arrangement that requires countries to buy natural resources with U.S. dollars. This means that for major commodities, countries must take the additional step of buying dollars before buying resources.
This state of affairs puts China in a difficult position. Although they have no shortage of U.S. dollars with which to buy resources, thanks to a perpetual trade surplus with its largest trading partner (the United States), they are especially susceptible to U.S. dollar risk from the U.S.’s aggressive dollar devaluation policy of QE-Infinity...
China has clearly recognized their dollar risk and has responded by aggressively expanding the use of their currency, the Renminbi (aka Yuan), in international trade.
They are rapidly intensifying their efforts to provide not just themselves, but their global trading partners with an alternative to the inherent
for Gold:XAU the highs have been 15.38 in July 2013 and 15.38 this week (Dec 2013). There was a 15.34 in between in October. The monkeys are trying to hammer on through the ceiling. Its 15.13 right now--I guess this is a version of the test Fleck is talking about in his commentaries. It seems we have already flunked the test on BGEIX as we are at higher readings in Gold:BGEIX than ever before on the daily and weekly. Chances are slim this is the end of the correction, I would think.
Nice Video on the Credit Bubble Stock blog about LBJ and JFK and Dallas
Now if there were politicians that snookered us in our lives, I'd say Nixon and LBJ would be at the top of the list--make no mistake, i wasn't a Kennedy fan either, but the show at this link makes some sense. Not that anything can change, but you wonder if Eisenhower had some ideas about all of this, and WHO WOULD KNOW BETTER:
"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."
From Eisenhower's farewell speech
Apparantly Benron was busy explaining the Fed Cyber-money creation program to Mrs. Debtfire today and it got the Obamacare website disease. No worry though, the robots will carry on as per usual now and the monkeys can start hammering gold investors and the 99% again. They have our back 24/7 of course like always--what could go wrong?--we now resume are regularly scheduled Fed fraud trance.
Just a thought here for the miners--we may be approaching the .6180 Fib level for BGEIX for the year. BGEIX closed at 18.33 on Jan 2 2013. The fib number at -.6180 is 7. Exactly. I'm guessing we are going to get there within December or at least close. I think I'll increase my averaging in just a little to try to catch this--from $400 a day to $600 since we are approaching--if we get past 7--I may bump it up slightly more--we'll see. Fun and games.
Book val. per share/Price per share 12.3.13/Long term debt per share
IAG 9.67/ 4.01/ 0.18%
SA 5/ 6.66/ 0
Chinese bankstas will pounce eventually. Book per share does not reflect the PM reserves these companies have.
Dec 03, 2013 16:00 NY Time
Gold/XAU Ratio 15.13
First time this ratio has closed over 15 in the history of mankind--but probably not the last!!
Bullish sentiment on Gold 10% and silver 9% at the close yesterday (Dec 2)--about the lowest for gold I've seen.
GOLD:BGEIX ratio 142.51
Close 8.55, only one non-dividend adjusted close lower in late Oct 2008 of 8.03. Record dividend adjusted close is 5.70.
If we seek 7 on BGEIX this run, the 1050 oz gold would give a ratio of 150. Not wishing it though.
The possibility of the demise of the petrodollar is increasing quite rapidly for two reasons. Firstly, US oil consumption has fallen from 38% of the World’s total in 1965 to less than 20% today, while Asia/Pacific consumption has increased threefold to over 33%. Furthermore due to shale oil production US oil imports are expected to reduce further in the coming years, perhaps eliminating her oil deficit entirely, negating the need for petrodollars. This leaves the Arab nations with a stack of useless dollars...
With interest, and despite accelerated infrastructure spending since the late 1990s that still leaves enormous currency balances in Middle-Eastern hands, likely to be a number like $8-10 trillion with a large element of it still in dollars...
One could argue it all comes down to the money, but the other reality is US electoral fatigue after Iraq and Afghanistan; so a logical reassessment shows the region’s future on both trade and strategic grounds is increasingly focused towards Asia and Europe, not the US...
The currency replacement for the petrodollar need not concern us for the moment. What is more interesting is the regional attitude to gold, which was acquired in large quantities up to the mid-1990s, as insurance against this eventual outcome. Interestingly, I have discovered from contacts in the Swiss refining industry that some of this gold in LBMA 400 ounce gold bars is now being recast into the new Chinese 9999 standard of 1 kilo bars.
It is not immediately clear why Arab gold is being recast. However, taking into account the significant shift in the region’s trade and strategic options it becomes clear that gold held for eventual resale into dollar-denominated markets makes no sense at all, particularly when there are enormous dollar balances that will also have to be addressed.
However, the Arabs know that if they sell their dollars they will risk undermining the whole fiat currency regime. It is therefore quite possible they will seek as an
There are several major consequences of this delay between the implementation of a given policy and its inflationary impact. One important result is that governments can get away with almost any kind of dangerous plan, because by the time the most severe side effects are visible, someone else will be in power to get the blame. Many other economic actions often take about a decade to realize their effects: the repeal of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 and the unwinding of similar Depression-era regulations during the 1990s generally weren't appreciated until the bear market of 2007-2009 highlighted the folly of many of these actions. Around 2020, who is going to blame Ben Bernanke for his decisions which will cause inflation to surge to its highest point since the 1980s?...
For the time being, it is highly unpopular to openly advocate allowing the natural course of events to proceed--and this is largely because the worst part of any government tampering won't be realized for several more years...
Prior to these inflationary binges, there is usually a foreshadowing with an inflationary spike which lasts for perhaps one year or less, such as we had experienced during the first half of 2008 and which I believe we are soon going to revisit in 2014. Prior to the raging inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, we had a spike higher around 1973. Similar behavior occurred several times in the 1930s and 1940s, such as in 1936-1937, prior to a more extended bout of inflation in the second half of the 1940s...
Today, some might fret about an upcoming decline for the stock market, but almost no one fears rising inflation, a renewed bear market for housing prices, or the possibility that the Fed not tapering their Treasury purchases could be more harmful than tapering. It is usually the events which almost no one is prepared for which end up having the most troublesome combined impact.--Kaplan
In the introduction, the author directly tackles current central bank orthodoxy: "It is usually argued that it is sufficient to monitor inflation expectations, and that central banks can avoid accelerating inflation by quickly withdrawing reserves (or by increasing the interest rate payed on reserves) once inflation expectations start rising. The monetary analysis of this paper however shows that there has never been a situation of excess broad money (created by the banking system) which has not been followed by increasing inflation, and that the increase in inflation occurs after several years lags..."
Reynard then uses his model to examine several historical cases of post-crisis monetary and inflationary history: Switzerland, Japan, Argentina and the 1930s U.S. He finds that there are downward rigidities to the price level that cause inflation to resist turning negative (or to fall below about 1.5% in the U.S.), but that when there is excess liquidity the link between liquidity and inflation is very tight with a lag of a couple of years. Reynard's opinion is that it is this non-linearity around price stability that has caused prior studies to conclude there is no important link between money and inflation. As Fama observed back in the early 1980s, and I observe pretty much daily to the point that it is now a prohibited topic at the dinner table, when inflation is very low there is a lot of noise in the money-inflation relationship that makes it difficult to find the signal. But the money-inflation connection at higher levels of inflation and money, and over longer periods of time, is irrefutable...
"Excess liquidity has always been followed by persistent increases in inflation. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years..."-- Michael Ashton
Anything under 8.60 will be the second lowest non-dividend adj. close. Gold closed at 8.60 on Oct 23, 2008 and then hit bottom at 8.03 on Oct. 27, 2008. Those are the two lowest closing prices in the last 8+ years. 8.81 for this year will probably fall today as GDX was down over 6% and XAU -5%. Merry f'g Christmas!!
2008 was so quaint :)
compared to the '13 apocalypse now!!
Can here strains of "This is the End" in the background played by the Sgt.Banksta's Speculating Band.