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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 17, 2015 3:14 AM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Ratio movement not encouraging for the short run

    by jshaef1 May 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 1, 2015 4:56 AM Flag

    Best bargains in gold stocks since 1942 is correct as the Barrons Gold Mining Index confirms this as the ratio of that index to gold stands around .42 (roughly 505/1190, Friday's close) vs. a ratio somewhat higher in the early 1940s. I can't help but think that gold stocks have become what savings bonds have been--you buy say $125 of BGEIX each day and you are guaranteed to double that at these levels in a time frame certainly under 5 years with the Ponzi Fiat Bubbles around the world sure to the threatened by then and with CBs only a mouse click away from more expansive money creation.

    Will continue the BGEIX regime while GOLD:XAU is over 16, currently a little over 17. Good luck on everyone taking advantage of this historic opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Ratio movement not encouraging for the short run

    by jshaef1 May 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 1, 2015 5:32 AM Flag

    China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China’s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.

    These challenges need to be addressed. Yet if, as it appears, economies need ever-larger amounts of debt to grow, and deleveraging is rare and increasingly difficult, they may also need to learn to live more safely with high debt. That will require new approaches to manage and monitor it, to reduce the risk of crises, and to resolve private-sector defaults efficiently. Policy makers will need to consider more ways to reduce government debt, and it may be time to reevaluate how incentives in the tax system encourage the amassing of debt. When there are signs of credit bubbles, regulators can seek to cool markets with countercyclical measures, such as tighter loan-to-value rules and higher capital requirements for banks. Debt undoubtedly remains an essential tool for financing economic growth. But how it is created, used, monitored, and (when necessary) discharged still needs improvement.-McKinsey

  • Reply to

    Ratio movement not encouraging for the short run

    by jshaef1 May 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 1, 2015 5:39 AM Flag

    So also from the same report--"Government debt is unsustainably high in some countries. Since 2007, government debt has grown by $25 trillion..."

    So that means $21 trillion of the $25 trillion of debt created since 2007 is in China. Me thinks that $25 trillion number is low and forgets Obummer's contribution :) USA,USA,USA!!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Mar 10 2015 7.10
    Mar 17 2015 7.22
    Mar 31 2015 7.30
    Apr 9 2015 7.55

    7.69 on June 4 2015, 7.68 April 22 2015, 7.63 April 13 2015.

    It has been a long and grinding bottom here, although there certainly is a history of higher lows. No guarantee that the most current ones will hold. Keeping the faith though with $125 each day the GOLD:XAU is over 16--right now that ratio is over 17--it has been showing lower highs but has been generally stuck above 16 since last fall. He have historic highs in the gold:xau ratio and a historic low in the similar long lived BGMI:Gold ratio. With China setting up to manipulate the Yuan against gold instead of the US dollar, there will be significant pressure up on gold later this year and with all the shorts in place capping PMs, the gains could be breathtaking. Time to make hay now in the slumber of late spring and summer.

    Also adding $100 a day to ACITX as eventually the CBs will get their wish of higher inflation.

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 10, 2015 4:19 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Mar 10 2015 7.10
    Mar 17 2015 7.22
    Mar 31 2015 7.30
    Apr 9 2015 7.55
    June 9 2015 7.56

    So far anyhow :)--who knows?

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 19, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Jun 16 2015 7.43--latest higher low

    Anyway--BGEIX is certainly close to its lowest valuation ever compared to gold--as I've pointed out PM stocks are worse than the early 1940's after Pearl Harbor when compared to gold itself. I feel comfortable with each $100 I sock into BGEIX turning to $300 at some point in the next few years. There are forces at work that will change things--if the Chinese manipulate their currency against gold, the OTHER way, not the way of our current bankstas, how are they gonna complain? After all, its what FDR did, its what Nixon did, its what they are doing behind the scene. Getting the bankstas off the lid and covering their huge shorts could send gold to $3000 and silver to $100. I can see the Canadian silver dollars (1960s versions) that I am buying for $9-$12 each, being worth $50-$60 then.

    There could be a war--maybe that would drive it even higher? Forget HDGE and KOL and all that #$%$, Kaplan talks about--LOL--won't be long before the train heads way north. Good WE!!

  • Total world debt has been calculated recently at $223 Trillion dollars. World debt has increased some 40% since the crisis of 2008-2009; as I recall, it was about $157 Trillion at that time. The $223 Trillion is actual debt, and does not include the potential debt lying in derivatives of this debt, which is another humongous amount and would become debt should there be any default on the $223 Trillion world debt.

    The $223 Trillion world debt is like a huge cloud up in the sky.

    It is of vital importance for the world of finance, as it presently exists, that the $223 Trillion world debt continue up in the sky, and that it not be subject to liquidation...

    World debt is not being paid down and has to grow, because the debt is being rolled-over, and rollovers include interest due. So the debt cloud has to get bigger...

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    This incipient increase in interest rates is warning that we may see, at some point, a widespread desire to dump bonds for cash; that would mean a jump in interest rates which would lower the prices of bonds, and the fall would cause losses to holders of bonds and other credit instruments which form the debt cloud. Hasty sales of bonds would aggravate the fall in values and reinforce the rise in interest rates. As in all cases of panic, those who panic first have the greater chance of avoiding losses.

    There is a further problem: the great majority of investors and the giant investment funds are, all of them, invested in bonds, on which they realized great profits when interest rates began to fall. But if all the big investors are owners of bonds, who are they going to sell their bonds to when they wish to liquidate them and get into cash? These investors are going to suffer big losses, because the prices of bonds will have to collapse. This is going to take place the moment that the investors think that the trend in interest rates is no longer down, but up.--Hugo Salinas Price

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 22, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    Liquidation into what? More promises based on the same cloud? Tis a pruzzle--say Mao's chillens.

    In the fall gold starts trading in Chinese currency. So if they manipulate their currency down compared to gold, are they "currency manipulators" and what does that say about the "strength of other currencies." And by the way, this time these sneaky petes actually bough the stuff instead of stealing it like FDR. Of course they bought the stuff at a discount financed by the western bank squad, but is that their fault? (LOL)

    Better than any of his other thrillers?

  • Reply to

    The Cloud by Alfred Hitchcock

    by jshaef1 Jun 21, 2015 4:51 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 22, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    $200 to BGEIX today--if we take out the latest higher low, I'll increase the daily some. So far silver looks much stronger than gold today. It's early :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 3:28 AM Flag

    Jun 16 2015 7.43--latest higher low
    Jun 22 2015 7.44

    gold:xau hit 18.30 on Jun 22 2015--Mar 10 2015 had a high of 18.34--all time high 19.38 Dec 16. Close Jun 22 at 18.07.

    gold:bgeix closed 159.33 on Jun 22, 2015, 174.54 was the all time high Dec 16, 2014.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 4:15 AM Flag

    I recently observed that JPMorgan and other members of the 4 largest short sellers on the COMEX had never taken a loss on any newly added short position in COMEX silver futures over the past seven years...

    The proof of this resides in the data from the CFTC in the concentration section of the COT report. Every time the big 4 have increased their concentrated short position in COMEX silver, which only occurs on rising prices, they have never bought back those short sales on higher prices than originally sold, only at lower prices...

    JPMorgan and the big 4 as a whole achieved the statistically impossible; never taking a loss...

    The only reason silver has yet to truly explode in price is because JPMorgan never covered short positions to the upside. I confess to being repetitive in declaring nothing matters more to the price of silver than whether JPMorgan adds to its short position on any and every silver price rally...

    JPMorgan and the others live to speculate and manipulate. Never taking a loss automatically means a market is manipulated and no legitimate hedging takes place; there are no other possible conclusions...

  • Reply to

    Ted 1

    by jshaef1 Jun 23, 2015 4:15 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 27, 2015 6:07 AM Flag

    It is common that when the bankstas get in trouble they change the rules--but the important thing will become who makes the rules--not anything else. We are on the cusp of that now--

    [China] has accelerated reforms in the bullion market in recent years, granting more import licenses and allowing foreigners to trade bullion in offshore yuan. It announced plans on Thursday to launch a yuan-denominated gold fix to boost its influence over the pricing of the precious metal.--Reuters 6.26.15.

    He who possesses the gold and silver will make the rules. So if China manipulates the Yuan down when bidding up all the gold and silver they possess, who cares about grandfathers :). Its the ole FDR trick, but this time they bought it at the manipulated low prices (courtesy of bankstas) instead of stealing it like the low life USA politicians did! (LOL)

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 27, 2015 6:26 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Mar 10 2015 7.10
    Mar 17 2015 7.22
    Mar 31 2015 7.30
    Jun 26 2015 7.33

    Ratio (gold:xau) looks bleak--those lows in March look in danger--its darkest before the dawn and it is really a darker shade of gray now. From a historical perspective we are probably as close to the most extremely undervalued in gold stocks compared to gold as ever--a trend that started as far back as 1968 in modern history and is comparable to the early 1940s when the price of gold was fixed by our old villain pal FDR. The stock market bottomed in the great depression on July 8 1932--LOL, at least that date is not far off :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:07 AM Flag

    macrotrends.net
    1439
    xau-to-gold-ratio

  • Reply to

    XAU:GOLD

    by jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:07 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jun 28, 2015 5:12 AM Flag

    slashes after net and 9--stuck under the bankstas sitting on the lid. Squashed flat! Or maybe squashed by the tons of fiat heaped on top :)

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 2, 2015 1:30 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Jul 1 2015 7.03

    As commented upon the outlook still bleak with the gold:xau over 19.

  • 1995-04-11 7.029366 390
    1997-02-18 7.029368 345
    1996-12-30 7.029368 368
    2015-07-01 7.03 1168
    2008-10-29 7.039727 760
    2005-04-14 7.040542 424
    2004-05-21 7.040542 385
    Date BGEIX Gold per oz

    This points to the extreme undervaluation of the miners.
    Never lower in relation to gold.

  • Reply to

    Update

    by jshaef1 Jun 5, 2015 5:58 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    For all purposes we have merely been scraping bottom since November 2014. The 7.7.15 6.94 closing is virtually the same as the lows in Dec and Nov 2014 and we could certainly "beat" them.

    So 7.7.15 was the highest close (IN HISTOREEEE :) for the ratio at 19.10--last couple of high closes late last year were in the18.90's. Gold:XAU missed the high of December by one tick. I guess there is plenty of time today on the anniversary of the 1932 Depression low for the Dow, to right that.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jul 8, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Jul 08, 2015 12:09 NY Time
    Gold/XAU Ratio 19.21

    Miners are stocks when stocks are down and gold when gold is down. Ratio is headed to 20 I suppose, although this is the anniversary of the Dow Jones Industrial low-in 1932 during the depression.

    Gold haters having their day--I'm still adding here.

TIP
111.68+0.32(+0.29%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT