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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 56 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Semiannual report

    by r_1901 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 3, 2016 1:28 PM Flag

    BGEIX until recently had been trading as if gold was around $400 oz, back to 2004-2005 levels and all those companies are about to go over a cliff. The question is whether $4 and change is right or $24 and change. My guess is we will eventually make the round trip to around $20 or above again in the next 4 or 5 years, since the world's banksta problems are the same or worse than 2008, despite what Super Mario/ Chair Yellen or JOP/PBOC say.

  • Reply to

    Semiannual report

    by r_1901 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 3, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    BOJ is what I meant--just saw on Truthstream website that the scariest thing in a 2015 survey to most US citizens is corruption in Government. Say it ain't so, Joe (er Bernie S?) LOL.

  • Reply to

    Semiannual report

    by r_1901 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 4, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    I really don't know, but corruption is not a good thing when it comes to keeping the faith in US Treasury bonds, the Fed, CONgress, etc. Of course very few of the big bankers paid any price for their debacle that played out in 2008. I think this will be good for gold in the long run and think JP Morgan was right in 1912 when he said: "Money is gold, and nothing else."

  • Reply to

    Gold:BGEIX--crash in the ratio coming

    by jshaef1 Nov 18, 2015 12:25 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 4, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Got down to a low of 152 on the gold:bgeix ratio this week--we are at 38 on the RSI (14). We haven't visited 30 since Nov 2003 on the weekly--no misprint. It indicates the weakness of gold stocks for those 12 years and honestly gold stocks have been in a bear market compared to gold since the mid 1990s.

    Of course when one looks at the ratio this way--gold:bgeix, a lower reading is showing strength for the miners compared to gold itself.

    It is hard to say whether we will visit 30 RSI (14)
    now or will correct on the RSI and the ratio itself will go higher--eventually we'll reach that 132 on the ratio--the 200 day MA on the weekly for gold:bgeix is now a little over 137--someday that average will turn down for the first time since 2012, and then it was just a brief blip down before going up steadily since then.

  • "There are a lot of reforms that could be carried out that in the fullness of time would increase growth, increase potential, and increase the capacity to service debt so there's a lot of things that might be done but it all starts off with a recognition, which we do not have, that monetary policy is not the solution to this particular problem and that it may, in fact, be making it worse. To put it in a nutshell, if it's a debt problem we face and a problem of insolvency, it cannot be solved by central banks through simply printing the money. We can deal with liquidity problems but the central banks can't deal with insolvency problems.."
    OECD's William White

  • Reply to

    Insolvency vs. Liquidity?

    by jshaef1 Mar 9, 2016 5:33 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 9, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    Speaking of insolvency--Yesterday's fun and games at the open (Tuesday 3/8/16) was a classic banksta operation putting on shorts in most of the miner ETFs at the highs or at least very close to highs for the move--it's even reflected in $HUI. Trying the same tired games and so far so good for them. Someday they shall pay, not us :)--but not today--the correction is underway! Yippee--at least a few more bargains in fleabay silva, etc.

  • Reply to

    Insolvency vs. Liquidity?

    by jshaef1 Mar 9, 2016 5:33 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 9, 2016 12:05 PM Flag

    Gold is like a Geiger Counter, you really should have it, but when you need it you're really going to wish it wasn't necessary.

  • Reply to

    Gold:BGEIX--crash in the ratio coming

    by jshaef1 Nov 18, 2015 12:25 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 11, 2016 5:18 AM Flag

    150 low on the GOLD:BGEIX ratio this week--around 36 on the RSI--137 and change on the 200 MA--haven't been below the 200 MA since April 2011.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 19, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    I sold $30K of BGEIX at the Thursday close. Still have plenty but balance is a concern at age 65.

    I see the RSI 14 got over 70 for the first time since 2010--I take that as a very good sign and would probably add some back around 6.95/shr, which should prove to be support if this thing is real. We'll see.

    GOLD:BGEIX made down to around 145--may not be enough weakness in its relative strength index to take it to 132-137 range before a correction--but a reading of 30 or less there, which eventually will happen, will be the first time since 2003.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 24, 2016 6:23 AM Flag

    BGEIX performance at the end of a bear market

    11/14/00 2.29 low of the bear
    01/02/01 2.76 intial high
    02/15/01 2.51 retest -53.19% of the initial move
    04/02/01 2.57 next higher low 12.23% off low of the bear

    10/27/08 5.51 low of the bear
    11/04/08 8.16 intial high
    11/20/08 6.14 retest -76.23% of the initial move
    12/04/08 7.72 next higher low 40.11% off low of the bear

    01/19/16 5.26 low of the bear
    03/16/16 8.48 intial high
    ??? 6.40 retest -64.71% average of the initial move
    off the end of 2 major bears
    since BGEIX in existence

    If the retest finishes higher—like the 6.95 I mentioned, we have a powerful born bull.
    If the retest is near or lower than 6.40 we may have to wait for this to develop, if it does.

    The intial banksta sells for GG were issued between the Feb and Apr 2001, so don't worry at all about that! GG was then and still is a major holding of BGEIX.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 28, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    Last week the $GOLD:BGEIX ratio finished at 152.09 with an intra-weekly high of 157.61. The 2 week relative strength index curled upwards to 36.74--still not close to the very weak 30 reading that the ratio has not seen since 2003 (indicative of the under performance in the miners that actually started in 1995). Of course a low reading in the ratio would indicate strength in BGEIX relative to gold. Lots of chatter about a correction--but nobody knows for certain.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 3, 2016 6:34 AM Flag

    Obviously in correction mode here. Ditto what I said a while back:
    If the retest finishes higher—like the 6.95 I mentioned, we have a powerful born bull.
    If the retest is near or lower than 6.40 we may have to wait for this to develop, if it does.

    No doubt that eventually any move down will develop quickly when it does. Never a dull moment here.

    6.67 is now the 50 day MA--if we have a bull you would want to see the 50 day be support and it has actually curled up a little for the first time since early 2014--not significant in itself but worth noting. If we can see the 50 MA as support (weekly chart) and we can get over 9.75, then maybe we have something--probably will wait a while--commentary sparse until then. All the best to anyone stumbling into here :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 9, 2016 6:56 AM Flag

    Banner week for the Gold:BGEIX ratio as it broke below the 200 MA for the first time since 2011. Next to fal,l may be the two week relative strength index which hasn't reached 30 or below since 2003--weekly RSI 14 is very close now at 31.64.

    BGEIX made it to 9.05 a couple of times in early 2015 in its sideways period after the big multi-year crash and before what we hope is the multi-bottoming period we have just pulled out of with this rally. All the more looking at the chart to hope for the 200 MA of BGEIX, now curling up at 6.70 and rising to be support for any pullback, especially if we reach the 30 RSI goal in the ratio.

    At least there is some hope now for the long suffering miners (since 1995 to be honest). The Gold:BGEIX ratio closed in the low 40s in 2003 and 2006 It was also lowest in 1996 and 1997 around 50. Sounds like a good target!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 11, 2016 12:15 PM Flag

    Looks like we may see 30 on the BGEIX 2 week relative strength index today--or at least close. letting go $7.5 K of BGEIX into the close. Still have lots and will hold through any correction that seems closer now especially if we get to 30 or below on the BGEIX RSI (14)--for the first time since 2003. Would hope that the now upward sloping 50 day MA would be support--around 6.70 at the close of last week. The 200 day MA on the weekly chart is now around 10.34 (close last week). That will be resistance if we don't stop before that.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 11, 2016 11:04 PM Flag

    "jshaef1 • Dec 9, 2015 9:32 AM
    Next stop for gold:bgeix ratio is 132--currently at 184, down from 205 high. RSI (14) has not been below 30 since 2003, on this ratio--a loooong time! I expect it to get below 30--it is now at 52.37--this is all based on the weekly gold:bgeix on the sharp charts site."

    Update 4.12.16: Gold:BGEIX ratio at 134.74, well under the weekly 200 day MA that was around 132 when I commented on 12-9. The RSI (14) is below 30 for the first time since 2003 at 29.51.

    Though I have lightened up some on BGEIX, it is only to claim some of the profits. Yes there will be a correction and yes the curling up 50 day MA in BGEIX should now provide support. Last rally that looked remotely like this was 2012 Jul-Sep but RSI was not as strong then.

  • The negative interest rates are creating a real crisis. This was the real reason why Yellen met at the White House. We are moving toward the realization that the central banks have created an impossible situation from which there is no escape. Keeping lower interest rates because all levels of government are hopelessly in debt is wiping out the pension funds.--M. Armstrong

    The federal deficit is over $100 trillion when factoring in all the entitlements that are left off the reported amount.

    19,226,226,489,207.18 is the public reported amount now. I guess having a good amount of a "pension" is not so crazy based on the dislocation that rising interest rates will eventually cause.

  • Reply to

    Interesting comment 4.13.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 13, 2016 2:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 15, 2016 4:34 PM Flag

    From Wall St. on Parade this week:

    ["It’s important to parse the phrasing of that sentence. The Federal regulators didn’t say JPMorgan could pose a threat to its shareholders or Wall Street or the markets. It said the potential threat was to “the financial stability of the United States.”]

    But wait--aren't they the ones with all the silver (see Ted Butler articles)--well so much for the financial stability of the ole USA :).

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 22, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    Gold:BGEIX at 127.89 low for this week. Big picture for that ratio is that it reached all the crash goals I mentioned in early December and then some. Now one can hope that the 200 day MA of 139 will be resistance or taking into account a bigger correction, possibly the 50 day MA somewhere around 170 or lower on the weekly chart. RSI (14) well under 30 for the first time since 2003 testifies to the strength of the miner rally. Let's hope we can get used to it.

    "Someone just decided this was the perfect time to dump over $2 billion worth of notional paper gold onto the markets.." (ZH--yesterday--Bankstas still trying to rain on our parade--we'll see if they fail at some point) At least JPM is sitting there with vast silver holdings--according to Ted Butler--so someday let's hope they get to cash in.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Apr 22, 2016 8:06 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 24, 2016 5:24 AM Flag

    In the battle being waged between Truth [physical gold and silver] and Lies [all paper contracts], the indestructible PMs will always prevail, and the time is nearing. On Thursday, at the peak of the rally, and during yet another Draghi lie called a press conference, “someone” dumped over $2 billion in paper gold onto the market. That is 16,000 paper contracts, with emphasis on paper contracts for it sure was not physical gold that was being dumped. For silver, around 7,500 contracts were sold at the same time.

    How much more blatant can the central bankers be? How much more will be the effect of such stupidity? Holders of the physical know very well what is being “sold” is useless paper, not the real metal, and as with QE-t0-infinity, bankers have pretty much run out of “fixes.” These are definite signs of the end game for PMs’ suppression.--M Noonan

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 4:08 AM Flag

    Here we are in Fed Week--time to get b-slapped by Auntie and her banksta buds.

    Not like its something new or unexpected.

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