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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

jshaef1 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Going to miss you

    by pondbubbler Oct 26, 2014 12:02 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Oct 27, 2014 2:42 AM Flag

    PB--thanks--I'll comment here if anything changes--right now we have a carbon copy of Dec 2013 in BGEIX--still averaging in, and i don't feel badly that it hasn't worked out as you say--gratification has been deferred.

    I post on the permabeardoomster site and his buy gold and silver blog in the comments section from time to time. Don't know how long that will be free and that "PB" is violently anti-gold right now, which is fine,

    Of course the problem with the Yahoo board is you can't link and in some cases can't even copy something from another site--so it is hard to post references, which is always important and used to be the great thing about these boards.

    Yep, bond yields could go down--I would not bet on anything there--the bond market is the true bubble and the only thing we have to fear is FED fear itself. To me the question is will the FED finish the final 5% of devaluation of the US dollar since 1913 or will they allow interest rates to go up--my guess is Uncle Buck gets thrown under the bus--maybe the last time they can inflict their pain on ole purple and bruised Bucky?

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Oct 27, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    100 years war.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Oct 30, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    Going all the way back to the last major lows in BGEIX unadjusted for dividends:

    Oct 25, 2000 3.47
    Oct 23, 2008 8.60
    Oct 29, 2014 8.33 (probably not finished yet)

    It isn't "the most wonderful time of the year" but maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel and it ain't a train. If we make another low here--no surprise. But hope the seasonality will remain intact for lows. Must admit it seems like a freight train though :).

  • Reply to

    but euro doesn't go down

    by simulpaolo68 Oct 30, 2014 12:32 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Oct 30, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    And if you recall at the beginning of the month coal was the object of widespread gloom and downgrades. KOL is not setting the world on fire, even though it has been up since then, but it has handed over the mantle of most hated to the PMs and especially the PM miners. This too shall pass.

    The commercials have a record short position in the "King Dollar" index. They are probably "early" but usually aren't wrong. Besides it wouldn't be any fun for the bankstas if they bottomed everything on the same darned day (LOL). Got to give special attention to everything one by one.

    Last I checked gold is less than 1% lower than 30 days ago, yet miners are cratered--hey anything can happen--so I have no clue, but I would agree overdone--but what are markets for?? Burning the little guy and shake them out of that money tree.

  • Listen, Sweetheart and hear me well. The ONLY asset classes you are permitted to invest in are those that can be easily misappropriated, nationalized, stolen. Gold and silver are tough cases because many of you have been known to hide them, you rascals! So just buy more stocks, I promise we will keep pumping them for a considerable period, for the foreseeable future. Why mess with anything else? Bonds yield bupkes and commodities are tanking, including the metals. Got that?---Janet Felon

  • Reply to

    New lows

    by jshaef1 Oct 30, 2014 8:25 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Oct 31, 2014 6:00 AM Flag

    Hi Fiend--I must say I love the FEEL of napalm in the morning, but I doubt the war will really ever end.

    Still catching knives, here although in a very toasty state. :)

    We have bears in our neighborhood--really--also one crispy critter for Halloween.


  • Rollover Winnie (er..Rover), let Jimi...

    We shall go on to the end. We shall QE in France, we shall QE on the seas and oceans, we shall QE with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our ponzi, whatever the cost may be. We shall QE on the beaches, we shall QE on the landing grounds, we shall QE in the fields and in the streets, we shall QE in the hills; we shall never surrender!!

    (This and previous felon messages seen on Zerohedge--well i may have changed a few words--just want to give credit to unknown commentators when due--I am not that smart!!)

    Oh, Purple nothin' on them

  • ...For the 5th day in a row, "someone" has decided that 0030ET would be an appropriate time (assuming the 'seller' is an investor who prefers best execution rather than the standard non-economically-rational share-repurchaser in America) to be dumping large amounts of precious metals positions via the futures market. Tonight, with over 13,000 contracts being flushed through Gold - amounting to over $1.5 billion notional, gold prices tumbled $20 to $1151 (its lowest level since April 2010). Silver is well through $16 and back at Feb 2010 lows. The USDollar is also surging.

    No change here--still adding on down days--looks like I will now be capped on buying at 7 now as we are sure to take that out today, if this BS stands.

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    On a comparison basis over the last 10 years--going back to November 2004, BGEIX hit its low point at 5.70 on Oct 27, 2008. Its high was roughly three years later at 25.56 (9.8.2011). Those are prices adjusted for dividends--if you look at the charts here on stupio YH they are not adjusted for dividends.

    Before the October 2008 puke and our current puke the lowest price was 6.54 (div. adjusted) on 5.16.2005.

    In May 2005, gold traded between 415 and 430 USD per ounce. In October 2008, gold traded between 900 and 700 USD per ounce.

    With my allocation to BGEIX today I'll be adding to a total position that is now well over 10,000 shares. Don't try this at home :).

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    was 4 early in 2006--rose to near 12 in late 2008 and then came down to 6 by late 2009.

    From 6 near the beginning of 2010 rose to 18.15 (close Nov. 5, 2014). No guarantee that this is the high, but if it is, do we get a drop in half again--to 9 in less than a year--and if so then what?

    Input Traders Talk Gold:XAU ratio to see the chart.

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 9, 2014 6:55 AM Flag

    I frankly don't know how it will work out and there is no way to quantify the future. PM stocks and gold stocks as measured by the Barron's gold mining index have been in a downtrend since 1967. That is before Nixon severed all ties to gold for the $USD. That is a very long bear market. What will change? Well maybe the cult worship of central bankers and the idea that they control all. It was certainly in danger in 2008 and could be again,soon. How long can they fake it?

    [from]WHEN NO ONE SEES

    One problem with this adula-
    tion of power is that it is
    largely a pose and a pretense.
    Many power tactics sell better
    than they work. . . .The other
    problem is that the leader as
    power-player, reliant upon
    promising tactics and strate-
    gies, sees no need and has no
    time for character.

    "Never worry about facts. Pro-
    ject an image to the public."

    — Diana Vreeland

    Time will tell and good luck!!

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 10, 2014 4:58 AM Flag

    The following was posted on Silicon Investor by a person with a college degree and 30 years of investing experience:
    "Whenever an industry dies off because it has been passed over by something new, e.g. coal displacing whale oil, and then petroleum displacing coal, it can go down for many many years.

    What we are witnessing is the death of gold and silver. Printing money has rendered a hard asset such as gold as moot. Governments cannot print gold; hence, it is now being widely recognized as being obsolete. The US cannot run a massive deficit for decades and pay the bills with gold. It has to be printed currency.

    The gov't can and will add a zero, or six zeros, to the end of the $100 bill. You cannot multiply gold like that and get the bills paid! And the military will defend our dollar system; expect no such protection for gold, which has been leased out and rehypothecated into oblivion.

    Join the paper revolution! "

    So if someone with "experience" can believe this rot, you have a good reason for fearing hyperinflation, because that is exactly what he is describing.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 11, 2014 4:16 AM Flag

    It certainly seems like a matter of time and do you think the rest of the world knows who got the gold.

    Petrodollar Panic? China Signs Currency Swap Deal With Qatar & Canada | Zero Hedge
    "GREENSPAN: ...remember, we had that first tapering discussion, we got a very strong market response. And then we reassured everybody to have no -- remember, tapering is still (audio gap) of an agreement that the central banks have made -- European central banks, I believe -- about allocating their gold sales which occurred when gold prices were falling down (audio gap) has been renewed this year with a statement that gold serves a very important place in monetary reserves.

    And the question is, why do central banks put money into an asset which has no rate of return, but cost of storage and insurance and everything else like that, why are they doing that? If you look at the data with a very few exceptions, all of the developed countries have gold reserves. Why?

    TETT: I imagine right now, it's because of a question mark hanging over the value of fiat currency, the credibility going forward.

    GREENSPAN: Well, that's what I'm getting at.Every time you get some really serious questions, the 50 percent of the gold price determination begins to move.

    TETT: Right.

    GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and -- I don't know, is Benn Steil in the audience?

    TETT: Yes. (continued...)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 11, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    (continued from Big Picture)

    TETT: Right.

    GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and -- I don't know, is Benn Steil in the audience?

    TETT: Yes.

    GREENSPAN: There he is, OK. Before you read my book, go read Benn's book. The reason is, you'll find it fascinating on exactly this issue, because here you have the ultimate test at the Mount Washington Hotel in 1944 of the real intellectual debate between the -- those who wanted to an international fiat currency which was embodied in John Maynard Keynes' construct of a banker, and he was there in 1944, holding forth with all of his prestige, but couldn't counter the fact that the United States dollar was convertible into gold and that was the major draw.Everyone wanted America's gold. And I think that Benn really described that in extraordinarily useful terms, as far as I can see. Anyway, thank you."--Zero hedge

    USA now=Keynes and China now has the gold--any wonder why everyone is signing on withe the Chinese--big changes coming and the day to day moves right now don't matter too much.

  • We will bury you--Khrushchev in the 1960's

    Today--We will Barry you--Putin

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 16, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    Well, we got up very close to 19 on the gold:xau ratio--but it could be, the bulk of the bad news is behind us. We broke through the parabolic advance on Friday as measured by the 20 day moving average and once a parabola breaks like that, its hard to see how it will advance above 19 again.

    We stand at the upper 16s as of the close 11.14.14 and have created lower highs and lows, albeit not on any extended basis. History shows, upon looking back at the Trader's Talk chart that gives us a long term view, that there were double tops after the big moves up in the ratio in 2000 and again in 2008. The 2000 was in more reasonable altitudes and the top was a true double top. The 2008 one was in what seemed like nosebleed territory at the time and the double top was marked by a much lower second top.

    History does not guarantee anything, of course. But we ARE dealing with an investment class that has been under performing its commodity since 1967. Seems like we may be turning things around--how far and how fast? I'd expect that there will be a fast decline of the ratio after a possible double top. We may even get to 9 as I supposed in the original post. Where we go then may depend on if the 47 year trend is broken. I frankly don't know, but I certainly would not bet on the ratio going over 19, based on the parabolic collapse. Stay tuned--wild ride just ahead.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 16, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    By the way, last two times we had an extreme top--2000 and 2008--in the gold:xau ratio, the first decline stopped around the 40 day moving average, then we formed a double top a while later. The 40 day is around 16--not far from where we are now. So on this double topping, if it is to occur should happen within the next month. If we are going to have a rally in gold stocks or if that parabola is somehow repaired--we should know in advance of the holidays. (Ch'mas & NY)

    If we were to head over 19 on the ratio it would be a surprise in a historical context. A surprise in these markets--not so much. Lots of evidence of naked shorts and wash sales run by bankstas on the COMEX. The extent has not been seen before, so its history v. bankstas--fun, fun!!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Ratio getting into the mid-16's now--while the short term is impossible to ascertain, probably going to see some kind of rebound in the gold:xau in the 15-16 area. I'm pretty sure the playrz will be jumping on and will get punished as usual. Gotta be scary and discouraging to anybody trying to start a miner position. I guess it is supposed to be (LOL).

    That's history talking, but history is not necessarily a guide in this highly manipulated market. We can see that in stawks--could they benefit from moves out of bonds in the festive holiday season.

    Don't know whether a bear flag is forming on the trashuries up here? More jet fuel for stawks if that's what is happening. That big empire state building top in mid-October is insane in both 10 and 30 yr.

    I really don't know if I could ever touch them--they ARE the true bubble. Maybe TLT

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Maybe TLT

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Maybe TLT under 80--i don't even know then. Calling Belgium, need more Bennie, er, Felon, er Yellen bux--fast!!

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