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Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF Message Board

jshaef1 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 24, 2014 3:49 PM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 24, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    It might be good to watch IWM as an indicator to see if the ramp in general equities will continue. Its strong today, while the bigger names aren't so much. If IWM should break out above its its 121 high--its about 118 now, looks like the ramp will continue. I doubt if that would be the best thing that ever happened to gold stocks. Of course I am watching the GOLD:XAU ratio and have mentioned that 19 level there as something we want to avoid on this bounce. Continued ramp in GEs probably means gold stocks going no place at best. We shall see.

    I'm not changing much--just pointing that out. Was reading Fleck today and one of the regulars (Mr. Skin) was saying VXX was a good play on volatility--heck that is just poison and no matter what happens, the decay there will make plenty of money for bankstas shorting it--not much else.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 24, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    'Sudden drops in bond prices are becoming more dramatic because new capital rules are making banks who act as dealers less willing to hold on to bonds while they look for buyers, according to Neil Murray, the global head of credit at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London, which has about $519 billion of assets under management.

    “Historically trading desks acted as a buffer, nowadays they are in no mood for taking bonds on their balance-sheet given the constraints they are under,” said Murray. “When bad news comes out, they mark debt down dramatically.”'--Bloomberg Nov 21 Junk Bonds Whipsawed as Trading Drought Rattles Investors

  • Reply to

    Countdown to another top in the ratio

    by jshaef1 Nov 20, 2014 5:17 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 24, 2014 6:11 AM Flag

    No change and everything still pointing to another high in the gold:xau by Dec 5 or thereabouts.

    Things starting to heat up in bond land--junk yields going up and corporate to tresaury yields widening

    These kinda stories make me think the end of the run isn't far off but even the most die hard stawk bears are saying something has to give this week

    "It all comes down to what happens this coming week. Recall the October monthly hanging man candle. By my calculations (positioning in the topping process and analogs) November should accordingly end down. That means we should see at least a 3% drop in equities this week from last Friday’s close. What might cause that? Exhaustion, I believe. See the mid-September topping candle in the first chart above, compared to Friday’s. A similar candle from a similar all-in / stocks can only go up positioning, and a sudden switch to bears in control followed."--Solarcycles blog

    Its all a matter of when the big one happens and the apple cart REALLY falls over and all the debt we are built on can't be put back together. Gold and gold stocks should do well in that environment, but can't say when--can wait though, and if this is 1928--then November 1929 is surely a comin. Until then its all noise .

  • If the GOLD:XAU topping process plays out anything like the 2008 process, there would be 12 market days to the secondary top--that would put us squarely at Dec. 5 or unemployment report day for that next top--which one would hope would be lower than 19, but time will tell. Well at least miner fans would hope. Whateva happens, happens.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 19, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    The bounce of the ratio begins--we will hold on to our hats (tinfoil??) and see how high we will get--of course anything exceeding 19 will mean we are still parabolic on the gold:xau--while it seems unlikely, the whole bizarre market scene is most unlikely at this stage :). Remember we have had almost exact double tops in the ratio--2000, being one good example--although at much lower levels.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 18, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    We are in the 40-50 day MA zone now, so the ratio might bounce from here--Nov 18, 2014, or somewhere close. We shall see. If and how high--not to know. 2008 big bounce--retraced around 2/3 of the ratio drop. Before that in 2000 and even as far back as 1995--things were a little more tranquil--the ratio range was nowhere near as extended as now--the ratio made a true double top in 2000 around 6.4, which seems tame now, after not even reaching the 40 day MA. In 1995 there were several bounces, but from the area of below 3--it recently got to 19, so looking back at that ancient history is little help, methinks.

  • From Fleckenstein:

    "Dismal Science" Fiction
    Someday we will look back on this period and shake our heads at how gold was literally being given away while at the same time folks were falling all over themselves to lend governments money at a discount to the actual rate of inflation, and the central banks were telling us they were determined to precipitate even more inflation. If this scenario were written in a novel, no one would believe it, but that is where we are.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Maybe TLT under 80--i don't even know then. Calling Belgium, need more Bennie, er, Felon, er Yellen bux--fast!!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Maybe TLT

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 17, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Ratio getting into the mid-16's now--while the short term is impossible to ascertain, probably going to see some kind of rebound in the gold:xau in the 15-16 area. I'm pretty sure the playrz will be jumping on and will get punished as usual. Gotta be scary and discouraging to anybody trying to start a miner position. I guess it is supposed to be (LOL).

    That's history talking, but history is not necessarily a guide in this highly manipulated market. We can see that in stawks--could they benefit from moves out of bonds in the festive holiday season.

    Don't know whether a bear flag is forming on the trashuries up here? More jet fuel for stawks if that's what is happening. That big empire state building top in mid-October is insane in both 10 and 30 yr.

    I really don't know if I could ever touch them--they ARE the true bubble. Maybe TLT

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 16, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    By the way, last two times we had an extreme top--2000 and 2008--in the gold:xau ratio, the first decline stopped around the 40 day moving average, then we formed a double top a while later. The 40 day is around 16--not far from where we are now. So on this double topping, if it is to occur should happen within the next month. If we are going to have a rally in gold stocks or if that parabola is somehow repaired--we should know in advance of the holidays. (Ch'mas & NY)

    If we were to head over 19 on the ratio it would be a surprise in a historical context. A surprise in these markets--not so much. Lots of evidence of naked shorts and wash sales run by bankstas on the COMEX. The extent has not been seen before, so its history v. bankstas--fun, fun!!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 16, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    Well, we got up very close to 19 on the gold:xau ratio--but it could be, the bulk of the bad news is behind us. We broke through the parabolic advance on Friday as measured by the 20 day moving average and once a parabola breaks like that, its hard to see how it will advance above 19 again.

    We stand at the upper 16s as of the close 11.14.14 and have created lower highs and lows, albeit not on any extended basis. History shows, upon looking back at the Trader's Talk chart that gives us a long term view, that there were double tops after the big moves up in the ratio in 2000 and again in 2008. The 2000 was in more reasonable altitudes and the top was a true double top. The 2008 one was in what seemed like nosebleed territory at the time and the double top was marked by a much lower second top.

    History does not guarantee anything, of course. But we ARE dealing with an investment class that has been under performing its commodity since 1967. Seems like we may be turning things around--how far and how fast? I'd expect that there will be a fast decline of the ratio after a possible double top. We may even get to 9 as I supposed in the original post. Where we go then may depend on if the 47 year trend is broken. I frankly don't know, but I certainly would not bet on the ratio going over 19, based on the parabolic collapse. Stay tuned--wild ride just ahead.

  • We will bury you--Khrushchev in the 1960's

    Today--We will Barry you--Putin

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 11, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    (continued from Big Picture)

    TETT: Right.

    GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and -- I don't know, is Benn Steil in the audience?

    TETT: Yes.

    GREENSPAN: There he is, OK. Before you read my book, go read Benn's book. The reason is, you'll find it fascinating on exactly this issue, because here you have the ultimate test at the Mount Washington Hotel in 1944 of the real intellectual debate between the -- those who wanted to an international fiat currency which was embodied in John Maynard Keynes' construct of a banker, and he was there in 1944, holding forth with all of his prestige, but couldn't counter the fact that the United States dollar was convertible into gold and that was the major draw.Everyone wanted America's gold. And I think that Benn really described that in extraordinarily useful terms, as far as I can see. Anyway, thank you."--Zero hedge

    USA now=Keynes and China now has the gold--any wonder why everyone is signing on withe the Chinese--big changes coming and the day to day moves right now don't matter too much.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 11, 2014 4:16 AM Flag

    It certainly seems like a matter of time and do you think the rest of the world knows who got the gold.

    Petrodollar Panic? China Signs Currency Swap Deal With Qatar & Canada | Zero Hedge
    "GREENSPAN: ...remember, we had that first tapering discussion, we got a very strong market response. And then we reassured everybody to have no -- remember, tapering is still (audio gap) of an agreement that the central banks have made -- European central banks, I believe -- about allocating their gold sales which occurred when gold prices were falling down (audio gap) has been renewed this year with a statement that gold serves a very important place in monetary reserves.

    And the question is, why do central banks put money into an asset which has no rate of return, but cost of storage and insurance and everything else like that, why are they doing that? If you look at the data with a very few exceptions, all of the developed countries have gold reserves. Why?

    TETT: I imagine right now, it's because of a question mark hanging over the value of fiat currency, the credibility going forward.

    GREENSPAN: Well, that's what I'm getting at.Every time you get some really serious questions, the 50 percent of the gold price determination begins to move.

    TETT: Right.

    GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and -- I don't know, is Benn Steil in the audience?

    TETT: Yes. (continued...)

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 10, 2014 4:58 AM Flag

    The following was posted on Silicon Investor by a person with a college degree and 30 years of investing experience:
    "Whenever an industry dies off because it has been passed over by something new, e.g. coal displacing whale oil, and then petroleum displacing coal, it can go down for many many years.

    What we are witnessing is the death of gold and silver. Printing money has rendered a hard asset such as gold as moot. Governments cannot print gold; hence, it is now being widely recognized as being obsolete. The US cannot run a massive deficit for decades and pay the bills with gold. It has to be printed currency.

    The gov't can and will add a zero, or six zeros, to the end of the $100 bill. You cannot multiply gold like that and get the bills paid! And the military will defend our dollar system; expect no such protection for gold, which has been leased out and rehypothecated into oblivion.

    Join the paper revolution! "

    So if someone with "experience" can believe this rot, you have a good reason for fearing hyperinflation, because that is exactly what he is describing.

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 9, 2014 6:55 AM Flag

    I frankly don't know how it will work out and there is no way to quantify the future. PM stocks and gold stocks as measured by the Barron's gold mining index have been in a downtrend since 1967. That is before Nixon severed all ties to gold for the $USD. That is a very long bear market. What will change? Well maybe the cult worship of central bankers and the idea that they control all. It was certainly in danger in 2008 and could be again,soon. How long can they fake it?

    [from]WHEN NO ONE SEES

    One problem with this adula-
    tion of power is that it is
    largely a pose and a pretense.
    Many power tactics sell better
    than they work. . . .The other
    problem is that the leader as
    power-player, reliant upon
    promising tactics and strate-
    gies, sees no need and has no
    time for character.

    "Never worry about facts. Pro-
    ject an image to the public."

    — Diana Vreeland

    Time will tell and good luck!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    was 4 early in 2006--rose to near 12 in late 2008 and then came down to 6 by late 2009.

    From 6 near the beginning of 2010 rose to 18.15 (close Nov. 5, 2014). No guarantee that this is the high, but if it is, do we get a drop in half again--to 9 in less than a year--and if so then what?

    Input Traders Talk Gold:XAU ratio to see the chart.

  • Reply to

    The band played on--Nov 5, 2014

    by jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 4:57 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 5, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    On a comparison basis over the last 10 years--going back to November 2004, BGEIX hit its low point at 5.70 on Oct 27, 2008. Its high was roughly three years later at 25.56 (9.8.2011). Those are prices adjusted for dividends--if you look at the charts here on stupio YH they are not adjusted for dividends.

    Before the October 2008 puke and our current puke the lowest price was 6.54 (div. adjusted) on 5.16.2005.

    In May 2005, gold traded between 415 and 430 USD per ounce. In October 2008, gold traded between 900 and 700 USD per ounce.

    With my allocation to BGEIX today I'll be adding to a total position that is now well over 10,000 shares. Don't try this at home :).

  • ...For the 5th day in a row, "someone" has decided that 0030ET would be an appropriate time (assuming the 'seller' is an investor who prefers best execution rather than the standard non-economically-rational share-repurchaser in America) to be dumping large amounts of precious metals positions via the futures market. Tonight, with over 13,000 contracts being flushed through Gold - amounting to over $1.5 billion notional, gold prices tumbled $20 to $1151 (its lowest level since April 2010). Silver is well through $16 and back at Feb 2010 lows. The USDollar is also surging.

    No change here--still adding on down days--looks like I will now be capped on buying at 7 now as we are sure to take that out today, if this BS stands.

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