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AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF Message Board

jshaef1 56 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • The time period 1996-2003 certainly resembles the current performance of BGEIX. The biggest difference I can see is there was much more volatility back then. I would attribute that to gold stocks being the accessible play for most investors. These days there are a proliferation of ETFs that have stolen some of the levered volatility from quaint ole PM stocks.
    That doesn't mean BGEIX is "less" dangerous. And also remember that the moonshots in 1999 for BGEIX, that resemble the one double we have already had in BGEIX for 2016, can vanish in a heartbeat. Also remember that BGEIX didn't crater to its final low until late 2000.
    So the notion that there is support in any number like $1000 for gold or $ 850, or that there is an ultimate target of $2000 or more is just plain hogwash. After falling out of the current parabola, there is no sense looking to buy very soon. Under 6 for BGEIX looks OK--under the low 5's looks even better and there is no guarantee that we will see under x (number of your choice).
    Of course if we never see those lows again, then we have something here entirely different than the hostage market we have had. Nobody really knows and caution is suggested when dealing with the inscrutables of a mature bear mkt! Goood luck and if this runs up more, good for the bulls!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 27, 2016 8:07 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 27, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    "Gold settled down Friday for its eighth consecutive day following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that highlight the prospect of a rate hike in the next few months.

    In a conversation with Gregory Mankiw a macroeconomist at Harvard University, Yellen said that if the U.S. economic growth continues to build momentum, it could be appropriate to raise interest rates in the coming months."

    Yep--in other news we gotta raise rates to lower them and we need to create mo money to save it!!

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 27, 2016 8:07 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 27, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    Party like its 1999!!

    BGEIX started the year at 3.67 and ended at 3.55 in 1999. Along the way there was a surge in the first part of the year to 4.29, then a swoon to 2.97, followed by a late year rocket blast to 4.75, before giving most of that up.

    I can't think of a year that reminds me of 1999 more than 2016--we had cicadas then too. Remember, Greenscam was flooding the world with Y2K bucks then--similar to Yellen the Felon, playing out the dovish bird of the
    of the current year. The stock market boomed, especially tech, while the USD$ strengthened. It came crashing down in 2000 and set up the big gold run of the new century's first decade. Be patient and learn from history, I suppose.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 27, 2016 8:07 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 27, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    "...most asset markets would drop if the USD bounce continues past the 94.50 area, which we have defined as a reasonable ‘bounce’ objective. In a way it seems silly mentioning the Fed and ‘policy tightening’ in the same segment, but we have always got to check our assumptions, especially where a seemingly confused, definitely confusing and probably manipulative policy entity is concerned."--NFTRH

    USD$ index at 95.47 at 10AM 5.27.16

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 27, 2016 8:07 AM Flag

    Don't even consider buying BGEIX over 6--just wait--if it never goes under 6 again, be happy.

    In the twelve years between 5/28/2004 and today 5/27/2016, BGEIX has been under 6 on 104 of 3021 trading days. That is 3.4% of trading days. In late May of 2004, gold was under $400 per ounce and BGEIX was still well above 6. In fact, there were 2 days of the 104 under 6 for BGEIX that were in 2008--the rest were in the current period of misery, 2015-2016. Take a look in the charts and confirm, that just about all trading experience that could occur has happened over that 12 year period for BGEIX.

    The low was 5.51 on 10/27/08 and that was surpassed by the dividend adjusted low of 5.26 recently. There are no magic numbers for gold or BGEIX--there is only firm support AT zero for EVERYTHING, but at least increase your chances of success by buying this only when it is at extreme lows. Pleasant holiday WE to all!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 26, 2016 3:58 AM Flag

    The precedent, over the past eight years, is unequivocal. In a real rally, precious metals prices are not deterred from rising via Compulsive Liars simply repeating the same lie, over and over and over. It is only in the realm of Hostage Markets where (supposedly) these markets “react” to the same lie (and same Liars) which they had previously ignored, for several years.
    A Fed-head talks, and precious metals markets fall. Readers are invited to call this paradigm of fraud anything that they want. But the one thing they can’t call this is “a rally”--Jeff Nielson

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 25, 2016 1:40 PM Flag

    To break the world monetary system, that will ONLY take place with a rising dollar. But with a declining outcome thereafter. You are just missing that part that FIRST the dollar must soar to screw up the world to create the change in the monetary system and that illogical proposition is in fact what makes it happen. Forget about petro-dollars. They are history. ..
    Don’t worry. Just go with the flow. It’s happening fast. Just let go off the old-world theories. The reserve status of the dollar cannot be changed by pricing oil in even rubles or yuan. The reserve status is created by the fact BIG MONEY can park in US debt. It cannot park in European debt which remains in chaos outside of Germany. Britain, Canada, Australia are too small, Japan is too restrictive, and China as well as Russia are not quite ready for prime time. The debt has to turn belly-up in the fish bowl to change reserve status. It is not even something the USA, China, or Russia can decree.--M Armstrong

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 24, 2016 5:17 AM Flag

    Gold at the bottom of its recent range is a topic on the Traders Talk Commodity Board website. There is an interesting chart there showing the average gold price and the Fed Funds rate for many years back. I would link of course but impossible on Yahoo message boards as all linked messages are deleted.

    While the message here is something entirely different, that gold can rise even when the Fed Funds rate is going up, the unintended message is that gold's average price may be following interest rates in a somewhat scary correlation and that all assets and Fed Funds rates, for that matter have strong support around zero :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 23, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    The last time the average cost of gas (per gallon USA) was under $1, it was 1999. On March 15, the price of a gallon was .99 cents. It’s never been as low since.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 21, 2016 8:27 AM Flag

    I would consider BGEIX again under 6 and ACITX under 9.5 and HDGE under 10--til then it is safer in cash while holding a small miner position if the bull keeps chugging. Doubtful with the hanging man on the BGEIX weekly, the DXY surge and the speculators reaching for DUST to hedge their big gold bets, but anything is possible.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 20, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    "Gold has been backing off with the prospect of rising interest rates, but a weekly closing below 1225 will signal that the high is possibly in place. However, a weekly closing below 1205 will signal that a serious decline is likely. Technically, we can see critical points at 12434.47 and 1202.13, and a closing below 1202 will signal serious trouble for gold. Gold needs to close above 1265 today to keep it alive near-term. Closing below that price level is neutral and a close below 1230 is bearish just from a tech perspective. A close beneath 1225 will warn correction ahead.
    To answer all the questions coming in how the gold promoters are burning people at the stake, they cheer every rally. They never say sell. It is always the same thing – up, up, and away no matter what else is happening in the world. They pitch each time this rally is real but lack any sense of where gold fits within the global scheme of market movement. Everything has its time and place. Gold will breakout, but it requires the collapse in public confidence. We are just not there yet. Trump and Bernie illustrate that this is coming.
    Nothing has taken place to negate the prospect of new lows. Markets typically have to move to extremes on both sides to trap people. That is the character of markets – ALL MARKETS. It is human nature we are talking about. My dispute with gold promoters is that they use the same nonsense stock brokers did during the Great Depression – just buy and hold, it will eventually make new highs. In the case of the Dow, it took 25 years for 1954 to exceed the 1929 high. In real terms, it was 1966 adjusted for inflation that produced new highs."-M Armstrong

  • Reply to

    5.18.16--back to watchin' the grass grow

    by jshaef1 May 19, 2016 8:08 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 19, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    Just as a related thought, over the past 10 years, BGEIX has been below 6 on a dividend adjusted basis for 4% of its trading days. So if you wait til under 6 to buy, historically, you will not be overpaying. That is 102 days under 6 (dividend adjusted) of the 2517 trading days over that period, from May 20, 2006 to May 18,2016.

    You can look all of this up on the historical prices part of this BGEIX site.

  • Looks like a quiet summer of watching the Gold:BGEIX ratio climb again. I'm down to 13% allocated in PM related including BGEIX in the AM Century Funds (retirement). Most of the rest is cash now.

    Two big things--The US Dollar index has what looks like a bullish engulfing candle for May--this seem to be pointing to a rising dollar in coming months, perhaps over the 100 level on its index. Certainly significant for anti-US dollar investments like BGEIX and ACITX , as well as ASIOX, both of which I closed out on Tuesday, May 17.

    The volume in DUST (leveraged anti-PM ETF) was amazing yesterday 5.18.16. This shows the full extent of the bullish bets by speculators in gold and related investments and this reach for a hedge shows how much will be unwound in the next few months. As all of this tends to overshoot, a move toward 200 on the Gold:BGEIX ratio is not out of the question and remember a 200 reading there would result from a gold price of 1000 and a BGEIX price of 5, which would be another low.

    I could be wrong and I am keeping a minimal amount of the miners and PM related, for me anyway, as I stated above. But I wouldn't touch BGEIX again until under 6, which may be soon, if the US dollar gets cranking, or may be never. We shall see.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 17, 2016 8:18 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 18, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    Special update--whoops :)--oh well--at least we took off a lot of risk in front of the Fraud Fed's Minutes. In the grans scheme of things, the Fed manipulates everything and remember that gold stocks have that pesky "stock" moniker attached to them.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 17, 2016 8:18 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 17, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    Sold and selling more today--from Jeff Kerns about nails it:

    "When the "melt-up" phase ends, history indicates that the decline should be quite horrendous and go back down to a 92-96 index sell signal that ends the 92-96 index's bull market buy signal from January. And then another rise is supposed to occur because the very long-term indices are bullish. Long-termers can remain bullish, but very few people will have the stomach or the desire to remain long during a major decline ..."

    92 day moving average on the daily for BGEIX is 7.93 as of 5.16.16. We closed at 10.45 that same day. That would be a 25% decline from yesterday, but just like with the ratio plunge--the miner moves tend to overshoot! Time to shut up and let the market work its magic, whatever that is--will check back nest week.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 17, 2016 8:18 AM Flag

    Ratio update (based on the weekly Gold:BGEIX chart)

    We plunged from a high of 205.52 on the ratio in November 2015 to 116.27 in April 2016--possibly one of the sharpest plunges in history and exceeding my December 2015 forecast of 130 by a great deal. After not reaching 30 on the 2 week RSI index, since 2003, we have been under 30 for about a month. The USD chart at finviz is interesting--the commercial shorts had been lessening and are now they are turning more short. This happened in 2014 and hearkened and big move up in ole Uncle Bucky.

  • Reply to

    Trashury Benghazis ole folks

    by jshaef1 May 10, 2016 3:02 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 15, 2016 8:52 PM Flag

    Most recent article I read from the Bismarck Tribune (North Dakota), seemed to be saying it was the usual kicking the can down the road. Pensioners were happy, but described it as only winning a battle in the war.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 13, 2016 8:25 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 13, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    30 year season chart for gold shows it peaking mid-May and then moving swiftly down into early July--much better after that. Go away in May and get back in on the 4th of July? Maybe--have a good WE.

    The seasona chart can be googled through Seasonal Charts Classics Gold--since you can't link anymore here.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 May 13, 2016 8:25 AM Flag

    In AM Century retirement accounts at close 5.12.16:

    BGEIX 18%

    Miner ETF'S 8%

    Other Miner Mut. Funds, Stocks 4% 30% total in miner/PM related

    WEAT 2%

    SJB 1%

    (inflation bonds,non dollar currencies, commodities) 2%

    ACITX (inflation indexed bonds) 4%

    Capital Preservation MMF 61%

    Total 100%

    Seems like 30% is comfortable at this point--considering the recent rise in PMs and miners.

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 May 11, 2016 3:12 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 May 11, 2016 8:46 PM Flag

    See weekly candlestick chart for BGEIX at sharpcharts

    What is a 'Hanging Man'
    A hanging man is a bearish candlestick pattern that forms at the end of an uptrend. It is created when there is a significant sell-off near the market open, but buyers are able to push this stock back up so that it closes at or near the opening price. Generally the large sell-off is seen as an early indication that the bulls (buyers) are losing control and demand for the asset is waning.


    Buy back area 7.5-9? We shall see. Nobody KNOWS the future.

10.51-0.09(-0.85%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT