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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

jshaef1 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 4:58 PM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • "What determines gold’s price trend isn’t the amount of gold bought, since the amount bought will always equal the amount sold. Instead, the price trend is determined by the general urgency to sell relative to the general urgency to buy (with the relative urgency to buy/sell being strongly influenced by confidence in the two senior central banks). To put it another way, if the average buyer is more motivated than the average seller, the price will rise, and if the average seller is more motivated than the average buyer, the price will fall. So, how do we know whether the buyers or the sellers are the more motivated group?"--Steve Saville

    True but when bankstas have access to endless paper gold to dump on markets that has some influence. Like when the monkey hammers drop tons of paper gold at their chosen times (hint, we hours of the morning, in light volume situations). hasn't been working great for them lately :)

  • Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06

  • Reply to

    Inflation surprises

    by jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 6:53 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:18 AM Flag

    The seeds of inflation have been sown. As economies slowly rebalance and recover, the inflationary pressures already present today will become more obvious. In this context, in order to formulate a view on asset allocation, it is necessary to turn to history to better understand the relationship between inflation and asset returns."--Nic Johnson

  • Reply to

    Inflation surprises

    by jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 6:53 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:17 AM Flag

    However, the process of issuing more government debt at lower yields cannot continue indefinitely. Ultimately the size of government debt relative to GDP must be brought down. Carmen Reinhardt and Ken Rogoff, in their recent paper titled “Debt Overhangs: Past and Present” showed that economic growth in advanced economies with high levels of debt/GDP, on average, lagged advanced economies with lower levels of debt by 1.2% per year. So if a period of robust growth isn’t in the cards, the remaining options are either to reduce the level of debt/GDP through fiscal austerity – a combination of higher taxes and lower spending – or inflation. Given the lack of compromise on the issues of taxes and spending achieved to date in the U.S., fiscal austerity seems unlikely in the medium term, which leaves inflation surprises or default as the most likely end games.

    The U.S. is not unique in this respect. Reinhardt and Rogoff have found that over the past 400 years inflation has been the most common way that governments have dealt with excessively high levels of debt...

  • "Further, we believe asset prices are much more sensitive to inflation outcomes relative to expectations than actual inflation levels – i.e., investors can react strongly when outcomes differ from expectations. Historically, inflation regime shifts have occurred with little warning. And once a growth spark ignites the inflation gasoline left everywhere by central banks (most recently the Fed with QE3), it may be too late to hedge the effects of inflation.

    Therefore, now may be the time for investors who are concerned about inflationary risks to focus on increasing their exposure to asset classes that tend to provide a positive beta to changes in inflation.

    While stocks and bonds have generally performed poorly during periods of high and rising inflation, a number of other asset classes have performed relatively well – including commodities, foreign currencies, gold and TIPS.

    Current environment
    Over the past five years, the total amount of U.S. public debt outstanding has risen just over 75%, as public sector deficits have been used to offset weakness in the private sector. Meanwhile, as growth has continued to be lackluster, Treasury yields have continued to decline.

  • Reply to

    Bond Ponzi Part 6

    by jshaef1 Jan 20, 2015 3:49 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:15 AM Flag

    The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger--Google it-- worth a read--not worth trying to reconstruct the missing parts (3.4.5) of the salient points in the article here as Yahoo boards have been scrooged forever. But time marches on and good things always end :)

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:11 AM Flag

    Little doubt we have started the third peak in the ratio. (GOLD:XAU)

    COTs have gold commercials shorter than ever in the last year.

    We had dumps after peaks in commercial shorts over the last year:

    Would be great if we hold 1200 gold and the ratio stays south of 19 $gold:$xau.

    The domed house is playing out and with the FED (circus) in town, timing perfect. Our long wait will be over soon and maybe the bankstas of the world will finally want to be careful what they asked for about inflation and wishing for it, as other commodities bottom well after gold and start their surges.

    When the CBs finally get their inflationary wishes watch out--averaging into ASIOX and ACITX here, and will buy small amounts of BGEIX if it gets below 8 again.

  • It is impossible, mathematically, for it to be otherwise.

    Not only should the Greek Government (and the US Government, for that matter) be in prison for these acts of fraud but so should those who advocate for and wish to assist in promulgating and hiding even more of it.--
    from The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger

  • The sad reality is that this is how governments get in trouble too. It's how Detroit got in trouble, for example -- they promised to pay (via issuance of bonds and pension obligations) predicated on tax revenues that had no hope, given the arithmetic, of being able to be realized. That's fraud.

    Greece got in trouble the same way. They issued billions of Euros worth of debt far beyond their ability to tax in the present or reasonable future -- that is, by the time of the bond's maturity -- to ever pay the value of said bonds back.

    When the markets called their bluff they suddenly had a big problem.

  • Let's not mince words or dance around the issue: The S&L Crisis arose because banks created money by emitting credit that was unbacked by anything and then tried to hide what they had done when the losses they made were exposed as exceeding their net available capital. When those who had lent them money (depositors, specifically) tried to collect their funds they discovered they had been lost to these bad, speculative, over-levered bets -- that is, the institution had actually created money (via the emission of credit) beyond its capital and earnings power and was unable to pay.

    The falsification of the backing claims for these "loans" was the fraud, and fraud is illegal everywhere and anywhere because you are asserting something that is not true for the explicit purpose of inducing someone to take a financial action that has no rational means of being economically sound but for your intentional deception.

  • Looks like we are headed for a third peak on the GOLD:XAU ratio to complete the three peaks and a domed house pattern that has been tracing out over the last three years. Remember that the lows so far for BGEIX are 6.77 in November and 6.85 in December for this latest bear market move (dividend adjusted). The low in 2008 was 5.51 (also divi adjusted). I will buy a little BGEIX at the close today, 1/14/15. I sure don't want to see new lows to go below November's 6.77, but doubt if the darn thing will listen to me :). Anytime its under 8 its good, though.

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 13, 2015 7:01 AM Flag

    6.85 was a higher low in December compared to the low of 6.77 in early Nov 2013. We are now above the Nov 25 former high--look for resistance at the 200 MA for BGEIX, at 9.23 at the close on Jan 12, 2015.

    Hope we start a trend of higher highs and lows.

  • Last time we were here was Oct 21--around 8.67 then dividend adjusted.

    GOLD:XAU ratio got as low as 15.41 on Jan 12, 2015. It was at these levels back in early October 2014 before it made a double top. The ratio may bounce off 14.75 or around there on the 200 day moving average--the 50 day moving average has already started to turn down.

    6.85 was the low for this move for BGEIX, dividend adjusted. The low in Oct 2008 was 5.51 dividend adjusted for the one in Dec 2014.

  • Last time we were here was Oct 21--around 8.67 then dividend adjusted.

    GOLD:XAU ratio got as low as 15.41 on Jan 12, 2015. It was at these levels back in early October 2014 before it made a double top. The ratio may bounce off 14.75 or around there on the 200 day moving average--the 50 day moving average has already started to turn down.

    6.85 was the low for this move for BGEIX, dividend adjusted. The low in Oct 2008 was 5.51 dividend adjusted for the one in Dec 2014.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jan 1, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    TLT compared to USB is hinting that the momo for long bonds is waning and that the longer bear since 2012 in the long bonds will reassert itself. If the yield curve begins to steepen as indicated by a rise in STTP, this could be the impetus for BGIEX to move up dramatically although with a slight delay as shown on a chart comparing BGEIX with STTP. I think there is a decent chance that BGEIX could be around 15 at the end of 2015, if the steepening of the US Bond yield curve plays out and the longer term bear in the long bond reasserts itself.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jan 1, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    While the long bond had a bullish 2014 it started out at a lower low and has not put in a higher high than the 2013 high.
    TLT has however gone on to new highs, a stunning disconnect. A massive squeeze of bond shorts apparently that has little to do with actual rates other than to exaggerate the 2014 long bond move that has been bullish for the year but nothing like TLT.
    So will TLT drag the long bond to new highs or is it a coyote about to experience gravity.

    Perhaps gravity taking hold?

    "Something else that affects gold's price trend is the DIFFERENCE between long-term and short-term interest rates (the yield-spread, or yield curve), with a rising yield-spread ('steepening' yield curve) being bullish for gold and a falling yield-spread (flattening yield curve) being bearish. It works this way because a rising trend in long-term interest rates relative to short-term interest rates generally indicates either falling market liquidity (associated with increasing risk aversion and a flight to safety) or rising inflation expectations, both of which are bullish for gold."--Steve Saville

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Dec 28, 2014 5:22 AM Flag

    GOLD:XAU doesn't show the double top on the weekly chart like it does on the daily chart for the last few months of 2014. On the weekly ratio chart, there is a big black candle sitting out above with 19.04 as the high. On both charts MACD seems to be rolling over. It would be great to see some lower lows here in both the weekly and daily on the way to 9.

    With any tax loss selling concluding soon, one wonders where the panic could be now with BGEIX making slightly higher lows this month? While the chart pattern looks more constructive than the one from 2013, time will tell and orders will be placed if we look to be going under 7. All other prices have been bought up over the course of the last year.

    Charts give you a view of what has happened--no real insight other than squiggles for giggles.

  • Stockcharts has dividend adjusted prices for BGEIX now, although Yahoo historical prices have not yet been adjusted.

    Recent low of 6.77 on Nov 5 followed by slightly higher lows of 6.85 on Dec 16 and 7 on Dec 23. (all 2014)

    2008 low on 10-27-08 now listed #$%$51 adjusted for dividends.

    2013 December activity was stuck squarely in the 8's as lows scrapped in the 8.10 area on several occasions during the month.

    So while things look a bit more favorable, we had a whole year to bottom fish and there is not much reason to buy over the dividend adjusted 7 now, as those bargains have been taken over the long course of 2014. The ratio (GOLD:XAU) also looks favorable after reaching over 19 (currently mid 17 range)--don't know if it is headed for a triple top o if we had the top recently.

    At any rate, no buying here til 7 or below and certainly not hoping for that. Most likely there will be surge of 25% or more in a short time period of a week or less to let us know that something has changed with BGEIX, but not sure exactly when.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Dec 24, 2014 4:13 AM Flag

    About 25 cents of the price change yesterday was dividend--Yahoo is terrible in keeping track of this. So the low for this cycle now goes to about 6.76 on a dividend adjusted basis and the low in 2008 is around 5.45 now. Eventually it will be reflected in the daily price tables here, but never in the Yahoo charts as they are not adjusted for divis.

    Not that it all matters much as we are so used to old reliable going down, whose to know ? :)

  • Ratio (GOLD:XAU) black candle spiked similar to today on Nov 10--put a little more on BGEIX today--will be back to a Franklin a day as long as it is below 8, tomorrow. Could be a higher low forming, but no real conviction :).

TMV
23.53-1.31(-5.27%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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