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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

jshaef1 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2016 6:06 AM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 30, 2016 6:06 AM Flag

    The gold stocks are already very overbought…and if they continue higher unabated, then we will have to worry about a potential sizeable correction. The chart below shows GDX’s parent index (GDM) along with two oscillators which plot its distance from its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The oscillators show the gold stocks are the second most overbought they have been in the past 22 years. The most overbought point was early 2002 when GDM corrected 37% before climbing much higher.

    Before we worry about a sizeable correction, let me point out some very important data. The 2002 correction began when GDM and HUI rebounded 212% and 311% respectively from the major low in 2000. Thus far, the two have rallied 100% and 128% respectively.

    Furthermore, the gold stocks are only three months removed from what could be the greatest buying opportunity of all time in the sector! While this is a sensational statement, it is rooted in data and facts and not your typical gold bug doomer porn. In short, there are three major similarities between the recent bottom in the gold stocks and the 1942 low in the stock market which arguably proved to be the greatest buying opportunity ever.-Jordan Roy-Byrne-

  • Reply to

    4.28.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Update--XAU 71% above its 200 day MA and HUI 74% above its 200 day MA. Insane, but of course the whole decline of the last several years was too. Paybacks are not good for Shorty. Great WE to all!

  • Reply to

    4.28.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    "Here is another statistic to show how crazy gold fever has become again. The XAU index at 86.90 as of the close yesterday (Thurs, April 28th) is a whopping 60% above the 200 day simple moving average. That's insane and is not sustainable! As far as I can tell from the daily chart of XAU that has never happened in the last 20 years. NEVER!"

    From a message borad above by somebody in JDST. I just looked and its about 68%. Oh well--this is the space age, i suppose.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 29, 2016 8:48 AM Flag

    Double digits at least for a day--10.03 (4.27.16 close)--the 200 day MA is 10.24. We closed a gap from early Sep 2014 (all of this from the weekly chart). Note, also, there is a gap recently starting around 9. Looks like a likely area to be filled on the coming pull back.

    So we are off the leper colony island that we have been on since 2014 in BGEIX--I've shuttled over $40K during this rally into Capital Preservation Fund. Yes I would buy a little back,around the gap below 9. Does taking profit mean I have to turn in my special tinfoil hat?

    Seriously, I would always keep 25% in BGEIX in non-crazy times--I've got more now--and even in the stratosphere I can envision holding some; cutting back to 5-10%. I'm not insane like the bankstas who worship reward free trashuries and other dirt nap instruments of death that they foist upon us!

  • Reply to

    4.27.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 27, 2016 3:25 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 28, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    What do I know?--but the test will come eventually--10.24 is the 200 day MA for BGEIX as of the close yesterday (on the weekly chart). Could be resistance. Funny how the Yen and Gold move together--the most indebted nation's monopoly money is gold's twin? (LOL)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 27, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    If I had to guess, i would expect the usual post Fed meeting paper gold selling dump to come on the COMEX sometime tomorrow morning--you know where a couple 'bill' of sales of contracts are manufactured out of thin air by some banksta agents of the Fed and aren't they all banksta agents? There has to be a big test at some point.

    Besides all those heavily short banksta commercials have always got to pass go and collect their bucks, no matter what. By the way, what is the difference between commercials and speculators on the paper exchanges anyhow? None that I can see. All fraud 24/7!!

  • Reply to

    4.25.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 4:08 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 7:51 AM Flag

    "Gold stocks have rallied by approximately 110% between mid January and mid April – something that obviously doesn’t happen very often...
    Lastly, one has to be prepared to see a “faith-testing” correction at some point. This is something that also tends to happen with unwavering regularity, and has yet to happen in the mining sector."

    Pater Tenebrarum

    Lafayette we are here :] (at the start of the correction)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 26, 2016 4:08 AM Flag

    Here we are in Fed Week--time to get b-slapped by Auntie and her banksta buds.

    Not like its something new or unexpected.

  • Reply to

    4.22.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 22, 2016 8:06 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 24, 2016 5:24 AM Flag

    In the battle being waged between Truth [physical gold and silver] and Lies [all paper contracts], the indestructible PMs will always prevail, and the time is nearing. On Thursday, at the peak of the rally, and during yet another Draghi lie called a press conference, “someone” dumped over $2 billion in paper gold onto the market. That is 16,000 paper contracts, with emphasis on paper contracts for it sure was not physical gold that was being dumped. For silver, around 7,500 contracts were sold at the same time.

    How much more blatant can the central bankers be? How much more will be the effect of such stupidity? Holders of the physical know very well what is being “sold” is useless paper, not the real metal, and as with QE-t0-infinity, bankers have pretty much run out of “fixes.” These are definite signs of the end game for PMs’ suppression.--M Noonan

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 22, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    Gold:BGEIX at 127.89 low for this week. Big picture for that ratio is that it reached all the crash goals I mentioned in early December and then some. Now one can hope that the 200 day MA of 139 will be resistance or taking into account a bigger correction, possibly the 50 day MA somewhere around 170 or lower on the weekly chart. RSI (14) well under 30 for the first time since 2003 testifies to the strength of the miner rally. Let's hope we can get used to it.

    "Someone just decided this was the perfect time to dump over $2 billion worth of notional paper gold onto the markets.." (ZH--yesterday--Bankstas still trying to rain on our parade--we'll see if they fail at some point) At least JPM is sitting there with vast silver holdings--according to Ted Butler--so someday let's hope they get to cash in.

  • Reply to

    Interesting comment 4.13.16

    by jshaef1 Apr 13, 2016 2:57 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Apr 15, 2016 4:34 PM Flag

    From Wall St. on Parade this week:

    ["It’s important to parse the phrasing of that sentence. The Federal regulators didn’t say JPMorgan could pose a threat to its shareholders or Wall Street or the markets. It said the potential threat was to “the financial stability of the United States.”]

    But wait--aren't they the ones with all the silver (see Ted Butler articles)--well so much for the financial stability of the ole USA :).

  • The negative interest rates are creating a real crisis. This was the real reason why Yellen met at the White House. We are moving toward the realization that the central banks have created an impossible situation from which there is no escape. Keeping lower interest rates because all levels of government are hopelessly in debt is wiping out the pension funds.--M. Armstrong

    The federal deficit is over $100 trillion when factoring in all the entitlements that are left off the reported amount.

    19,226,226,489,207.18 is the public reported amount now. I guess having a good amount of a "pension" is not so crazy based on the dislocation that rising interest rates will eventually cause.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 11, 2016 11:04 PM Flag

    "jshaef1 • Dec 9, 2015 9:32 AM
    Next stop for gold:bgeix ratio is 132--currently at 184, down from 205 high. RSI (14) has not been below 30 since 2003, on this ratio--a loooong time! I expect it to get below 30--it is now at 52.37--this is all based on the weekly gold:bgeix on the sharp charts site."

    Update 4.12.16: Gold:BGEIX ratio at 134.74, well under the weekly 200 day MA that was around 132 when I commented on 12-9. The RSI (14) is below 30 for the first time since 2003 at 29.51.

    Though I have lightened up some on BGEIX, it is only to claim some of the profits. Yes there will be a correction and yes the curling up 50 day MA in BGEIX should now provide support. Last rally that looked remotely like this was 2012 Jul-Sep but RSI was not as strong then.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 11, 2016 12:15 PM Flag

    Looks like we may see 30 on the BGEIX 2 week relative strength index today--or at least close. letting go $7.5 K of BGEIX into the close. Still have lots and will hold through any correction that seems closer now especially if we get to 30 or below on the BGEIX RSI (14)--for the first time since 2003. Would hope that the now upward sloping 50 day MA would be support--around 6.70 at the close of last week. The 200 day MA on the weekly chart is now around 10.34 (close last week). That will be resistance if we don't stop before that.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 9, 2016 6:56 AM Flag

    Banner week for the Gold:BGEIX ratio as it broke below the 200 MA for the first time since 2011. Next to fal,l may be the two week relative strength index which hasn't reached 30 or below since 2003--weekly RSI 14 is very close now at 31.64.

    BGEIX made it to 9.05 a couple of times in early 2015 in its sideways period after the big multi-year crash and before what we hope is the multi-bottoming period we have just pulled out of with this rally. All the more looking at the chart to hope for the 200 MA of BGEIX, now curling up at 6.70 and rising to be support for any pullback, especially if we reach the 30 RSI goal in the ratio.

    At least there is some hope now for the long suffering miners (since 1995 to be honest). The Gold:BGEIX ratio closed in the low 40s in 2003 and 2006 It was also lowest in 1996 and 1997 around 50. Sounds like a good target!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Apr 3, 2016 6:34 AM Flag

    Obviously in correction mode here. Ditto what I said a while back:
    If the retest finishes higher—like the 6.95 I mentioned, we have a powerful born bull.
    If the retest is near or lower than 6.40 we may have to wait for this to develop, if it does.

    No doubt that eventually any move down will develop quickly when it does. Never a dull moment here.

    6.67 is now the 50 day MA--if we have a bull you would want to see the 50 day be support and it has actually curled up a little for the first time since early 2014--not significant in itself but worth noting. If we can see the 50 MA as support (weekly chart) and we can get over 9.75, then maybe we have something--probably will wait a while--commentary sparse until then. All the best to anyone stumbling into here :)

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 28, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    Last week the $GOLD:BGEIX ratio finished at 152.09 with an intra-weekly high of 157.61. The 2 week relative strength index curled upwards to 36.74--still not close to the very weak 30 reading that the ratio has not seen since 2003 (indicative of the under performance in the miners that actually started in 1995). Of course a low reading in the ratio would indicate strength in BGEIX relative to gold. Lots of chatter about a correction--but nobody knows for certain.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 24, 2016 6:23 AM Flag

    BGEIX performance at the end of a bear market

    11/14/00 2.29 low of the bear
    01/02/01 2.76 intial high
    02/15/01 2.51 retest -53.19% of the initial move
    04/02/01 2.57 next higher low 12.23% off low of the bear

    10/27/08 5.51 low of the bear
    11/04/08 8.16 intial high
    11/20/08 6.14 retest -76.23% of the initial move
    12/04/08 7.72 next higher low 40.11% off low of the bear


    01/19/16 5.26 low of the bear
    03/16/16 8.48 intial high
    ??? 6.40 retest -64.71% average of the initial move
    off the end of 2 major bears
    since BGEIX in existence

    If the retest finishes higher—like the 6.95 I mentioned, we have a powerful born bull.
    If the retest is near or lower than 6.40 we may have to wait for this to develop, if it does.

    The intial banksta sells for GG were issued between the Feb and Apr 2001, so don't worry at all about that! GG was then and still is a major holding of BGEIX.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 19, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    I sold $30K of BGEIX at the Thursday close. Still have plenty but balance is a concern at age 65.

    I see the RSI 14 got over 70 for the first time since 2010--I take that as a very good sign and would probably add some back around 6.95/shr, which should prove to be support if this thing is real. We'll see.

    GOLD:BGEIX made down to around 145--may not be enough weakness in its relative strength index to take it to 132-137 range before a correction--but a reading of 30 or less there, which eventually will happen, will be the first time since 2003.

  • Reply to

    Gold:BGEIX--crash in the ratio coming

    by jshaef1 Nov 18, 2015 12:25 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 11, 2016 5:18 AM Flag

    150 low on the GOLD:BGEIX ratio this week--around 36 on the RSI--137 and change on the 200 MA--haven't been below the 200 MA since April 2011.

TMV
21.38-0.22(-1.02%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT