Try as I might I can't get really optimistic yet. Looking at the GOLD:BGEIX on the weekly chart there is little to cheer about other than the fact it is HISTORY!
We've been as high as 148.46 on the weekly and are now at 144.90 at the close 12.11.13. Remember I posited 150 not long ago. To compare we got up to 128.54 week of Oct 20, 2008 and 112.38 week of Nov 13, 2000. The only thing good I can say is the RSI 10 seems to be topping out under 70, whereas in the spring it was in the stratosphere of 90s.
We haven't seen the lower BB on the chart since Sept 2012 and we started this ramp around 83.08.
MACD has been flat-lining pretty much during the current ramp.
But it is HISTORY and we really don't want to make much more of the same kind!!
Wonder how long it takes for the fed to “diversify?”
Israel to Begin Investing Reserves in U.S Equities Today
By Alisa Odenheimer
Mar 1, 2012 4:45 AM ET
The Bank of Israel will begin today a pilot program to invest a portion of its foreign currency reserves in U.S. equities.
The investment, which in the initial phase will amount to 2 percent of the $77 billion reserves, or about $1.5 billion, will be made through UBS AG and BlackRock Inc. (BLK), Bank of Israel spokesman Yossi Saadon said in a telephone interview today. At a later stage, the investment is expected to increase to 10 percent of the reserves.
A small number of central banks have started investing part of their reserves in equities. About 9 percent of the foreign- exchange reserves of Switzerland’s central bank were invested in shares at the end of the third quarter, the Swiss bank said on its website.
The investment will be made in equity index trackers and will include between 1,500 to 2,000 shares, among them stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL), Saadon said.
The central bank decided to add equities to its investment portfolio in order to diversify, reduce risk and give better performance, Barry Topf, senior adviser to Governor Stanley Fischer, said in a Dec. 1 interview.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The White House is near naming Stanley Fischer to be the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to several reports on Wednesday. Fischer headed the Bank of Israel for eight years before retiring in June. He is well-known in U.S economic policy circles. As an economics professor at MIT, Fischer advised Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on his Ph.D. thesis. He left academia in 1988 to become chief economist at the World Bank. He then joined the International Monetary Fund, where he worked closely with U.S. officials during the Asian financial crisis. Fischer would replace Janet Yellen as the second highest Fed official when she takes over the top spot. The Senate is expected to vote on confirmation of Yellen's nomination next week, Senate aides said.
MARKET PULSE Archives
Dec. 11, 2013, 1:58 p.m. EST • CORRECTED
Unless your timing is impeccable, you will get killed by the leverage in TMV--it is a guaranteed trip to nowhere like most of the other leveraged ETFs for anything more than a short trip. TBF has less leverage, but it is a bummer if TLT catches a bid or if the US bond market goes nowhere.
Remember that the US dollar got smacked around pretty good in the 2007-2008 transition from bull to bear (not talking about LATE 2008).
If we are going to experience similar now some of the inflation that is in general equities might slosh into commodities before the US dollar gets a bid.
Taper--isn't that a worm :)
It's our currency and your problem — US Treasury Secretary John Connally famously said of the dollar in 1971. --Macleod referred to Greenspan, but it may be this quote he meant.
I too have been wondering whether or not the (British) banking oligarches are setting the USA up for a sucker punch from the Chinese.
Considering the the likes of Obama (the mouth piece of the oligarches), brain-dead Joe Biden, Hillary (a high school girl with a really bad hair-do) and the “useful idiot” John Kerry, we’re being led down the primrose path by the nose – and no politicians in the USA – with the exception of Ron Paul – even come close to getting it.
Interesting to think the next phase is the Oligarches and the Chinese working together while we’re stuck here “frackin” our brains out with a bunch of Mexican gardeners.--comment to excerpted articleabove--love the last line.
I'm not usre I agree on Ron Paul--he is like the guy who sponsors one of the turn back the clock games in sports--now if we can all fit into the time capsule, we should be fine!!
The Chinese yuan is now second only to the US dollar in trade finance, displacing the euro. George Osborne, UK Chancellor at very short notice recently flew over to China, when there was already a British delegation there. And this week, again at little notice David Cameron flies to China for top level meetings with the new president and the premier, promoted by the British media as a trade mission...
And the most important outstanding strategic objective for China is to do away with the US dollar for Asian cross-border trade, and also eventually with all other trade wherever possible.
This explains why America finds herself parked in a cul-de-sac labelled Senkaku. China is instead turning to London to utilise strong existing links with Hong Kong to develop a yuan alternative for trade finance for her non-Asian trade, which is why Cameron and Co are getting so excited. And even before this move, the financial power behind China’s economic renaissance has been sufficient to knock the euro into third place for trade finance.
It is simply becoming surplus to requirements; and here again China has America cornered. After concluding her alliances with the Middle East she will control directly and indirectly almost all the world’s above-ground stocks of gold, which in the final analysis is more powerful than any fiat currency, reserve status or not.
One can only speculate about how much of this is self-inflicted by the Americans. Was it her overt imperialism that undermined her, or is it the Fed’s monetary policy? I also remember Alan Greenspan’s undiplomatic remarks over China’s stock of US Treasuries, when he pointed out that they had the problem, not America.--Alasdair Macleod – 09 December 2013
I suppose China is female??
"As long as you are proud you cannot know God. A proud man is always looking down on things and people: and, of course, as long as you are looking down you cannot see something that is above you.”
Certainly agree on the general equities comment--nice commentary on the Credit Bubble Stocks site where you can see an interesting chart which of course I can't link here.
"In Hussman's Sunday column, linked earlier, he mentioned that,
"Among the litany of other classic features of a speculative bull market peak, margin debt on the NYSE has surged to the highest level in history, and at nearly 2.5% of GDP, exceeds all but two months in 2000 and 2007. The amount being borrowed to buy stocks on margin is now 26% the size of all commercial and industrial loans in the entire U.S. banking sector."
That last part is astounding, and I had to check to make sure that it is true (with the NYSE and the Fed). Since I had already pulled the data, I figured why not see how this ratio - which is a novel contribution by Hussman - has varied over time.
The ratio spent much of the second half of the 20th century below five percent. It wasn't until the Fed induced bubble in the mid 90s that it went parabolic, cracking 15% for the first time ever in September 1997.
Here are all the months when the ratio has been above 25 percent: February and March 2000; April through August 2007; February through May 2011; September and October 2013.
Keep in mind that we are essentially deflating the series using commercial and industrial loans, which grow swiftly themselves during credit bubbles.
Every cockpit indicator is screaming that the plane is about to crash into terrain, but the response of almost all other investors is to push the throttles forward."
Slight adjustments here to the buying operation. I am buying $300 per day of BGEIX until it goes above 10. Will continue the buying operation under 11 when it is below its 50 MA. There seems to be little chance it will get above the 50 MA for a while. When I was buying to capture the June bottom from June through early September, I averaged just over $300 a day, while at times like the June 27 bottom, investing more, and at other times not investing, when BGEIX was strong.
I will also be buying ACITX when under its 50 day moving average. I am not wildly enthusiast about TIPs, but they may perform better than cash. Will only allocate $100 a day. I am suspending purchases of BEGBX and ASIOX for now. I will concentrateon averaging in to ACITX for now as I am less weighted there than ASIOX and BEGBX.
I was on record that we may see 7 for BGEIX in the near future. I really don't know and hope that would not happen. If it does, the slow and steady approach is the best, so as not to buy in too much too high. Any attempts to time a highly manipulated market seem futile at this point and all the articles I see waiting for signs? Well BGEIX was up 60% in one month after its Oct 2008 bottom and GDX increased by 25% in one day in Nov 2008. Good luck with your signs!!
position themselves for a new international monetary regime. This suggestion is echoed in a statement made by Liu Zhongbo of the Agricultural Bank of China in January of this year:
“Because gold has capabilities to absorb external economic shocks, growth of its use in the international monetary system will be imminent”
This statement suggests that China expects a monetary shift to happen sooner rather than later. Their aggressive push to internationalize the Renminbi and back it with substantial gold reserves, along with their sustained commitment to opening up and building the infrastructure for world leading domestic gold market, supports this contention.
In this context, we believe that gold generally, and the shares of gold mining equities in particular, are deeply undervalued.-- RJ Wilcox
Excellent overview that highlights the reason to buy gold stocks now. ABX is one of the leading components of BGEIX.. Full article is available on the gold-eagle website.
dollar trap built into the international commodity trade.
China is in essence developing an escape route for what they perceive as a looming currency crisis in connection with shortsighted US monetary policy and a dollar dominant world.
They are mitigating this issue in a couple of key ways, both of which we have written about before. They are expanding the use of the Renminbi in international trade while simultaneously developing a robust domestic gold market...
This week, Barrick’s board announced that John Thornton, a former president of Goldman Sachs, would be their next chairman. In an effort to right Barrick’s many woes, Mr. Thornton is reportedly trying to establish partnerships with Chinese companies.
One potentially interested party is rumored to be China Investment Corp. (CIC), the sovereign wealth fund responsible for investing China’s massive foreign exchange reserves. Mr. Thornton just happens to be a member of their international advisory board.
It’s probably just a matter of time now....
We believe China sees “the writing on the wall” in regard to the U.S. dollar and is taking action to
Again from the 2012 commentary “Building a Strong Economic and Financial Security Barrier for China,” Sun Zhaoxue contextualizes the above chart wonderfully:
“Especially noteworthy is that in the course of this international financial crisis, the United States shows a huge financial deficit but it did not sell any of its gold reserves to reduce its debt. Instead it turned on the printer, massively increasing the U.S. dollar supply, making the wealth of those counties and regions with foreign reserves mainly denominated in U.S. dollars quickly diminish, in effect automatically reducing its own debt...”
In other words, Quantitative Easing (QE) is, at least in part, a means for the U.S. to quietly default on its debts without saying so.
China holds $1.27 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and other U.S. dollar denominated assets, making them the United States’ largest lender. As a result, the Chinese government is particularly sensitive to monetary policies affecting the value of their massive holdings.
Since the early 1970s, starting with oil, the U.S. has used its economic and military muscle to coax the world into an odd arrangement that requires countries to buy natural resources with U.S. dollars. This means that for major commodities, countries must take the additional step of buying dollars before buying resources.
This state of affairs puts China in a difficult position. Although they have no shortage of U.S. dollars with which to buy resources, thanks to a perpetual trade surplus with its largest trading partner (the United States), they are especially susceptible to U.S. dollar risk from the U.S.’s aggressive dollar devaluation policy of QE-Infinity...
China has clearly recognized their dollar risk and has responded by aggressively expanding the use of their currency, the Renminbi (aka Yuan), in international trade.
They are rapidly intensifying their efforts to provide not just themselves, but their global trading partners with an alternative to the inherent
for Gold:XAU the highs have been 15.38 in July 2013 and 15.38 this week (Dec 2013). There was a 15.34 in between in October. The monkeys are trying to hammer on through the ceiling. Its 15.13 right now--I guess this is a version of the test Fleck is talking about in his commentaries. It seems we have already flunked the test on BGEIX as we are at higher readings in Gold:BGEIX than ever before on the daily and weekly. Chances are slim this is the end of the correction, I would think.
Nice Video on the Credit Bubble Stock blog about LBJ and JFK and Dallas
Now if there were politicians that snookered us in our lives, I'd say Nixon and LBJ would be at the top of the list--make no mistake, i wasn't a Kennedy fan either, but the show at this link makes some sense. Not that anything can change, but you wonder if Eisenhower had some ideas about all of this, and WHO WOULD KNOW BETTER:
"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."
From Eisenhower's farewell speech
Apparantly Benron was busy explaining the Fed Cyber-money creation program to Mrs. Debtfire today and it got the Obamacare website disease. No worry though, the robots will carry on as per usual now and the monkeys can start hammering gold investors and the 99% again. They have our back 24/7 of course like always--what could go wrong?--we now resume are regularly scheduled Fed fraud trance.
Just a thought here for the miners--we may be approaching the .6180 Fib level for BGEIX for the year. BGEIX closed at 18.33 on Jan 2 2013. The fib number at -.6180 is 7. Exactly. I'm guessing we are going to get there within December or at least close. I think I'll increase my averaging in just a little to try to catch this--from $400 a day to $600 since we are approaching--if we get past 7--I may bump it up slightly more--we'll see. Fun and games.
Book val. per share/Price per share 12.3.13/Long term debt per share
IAG 9.67/ 4.01/ 0.18%
SA 5/ 6.66/ 0
Chinese bankstas will pounce eventually. Book per share does not reflect the PM reserves these companies have.
Dec 03, 2013 16:00 NY Time
Gold/XAU Ratio 15.13
First time this ratio has closed over 15 in the history of mankind--but probably not the last!!