Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

jshaef1 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 18, 2015 3:03 PM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Will they hold?

    by jshaef1 Mar 14, 2015 8:25 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 18, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    INFLATION: Cutting money in half without damaging the paper.--HENNY YOUNGMAN

    Immediately following Fed announcement on the news wires:

    *FED WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION FOR LIFTOFF

    LOL--Henny Youngman smiles from heaven (or somewhere)!

    Come on BGEIX hold those higher lows!!

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Mar 14, 2015 8:25 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Mar 10 2015 7.10

    Don't really know if these will hold--we have almost a perfect three peaks of the dome in the GOLD:XAU ratio and three bottoms that are higher lows--but of course nothing tells the future.
    See also traders talk topic 92028. Still buying small amounts of BGEIX into this weakness about daily.
    See also three peaks and a domed house.

  • Reply to

    Unenjoyment on unemployment day and beyond

    by jshaef1 Mar 9, 2015 12:46 PM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 9, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Above from SJ Kaplan--I'm still averaging in on weakness--although i did a little more late last week, I'll keep up with a tad more than the minimum until mid-May 2015 on weakness. If it doesn't start moving north by then, I'll just be along for the ride with no more purchases. Looks like most of the higher lows will be taken out by the end of the day. Ones till in place as of close Friday:

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22

    December 29 looks to be taken out today--the others are simply immaterial differences per the bottom ( so far).

  • "Since Friday, I have received a strong flood of email which was the most intense since the middle of December 2014. With a few exceptions by those wanting to identify the most compelling bargains, nearly all of these represented some form of discouragement or the perception that investing in anticipation of a falling U.S. dollar is "hopeless." What is most fascinating about this behavior is that subscribers aren't generally communicating with each other and reaching a joint conclusion; they're individually reaching their own conclusions which they believe to be unique but which are occurring in others nearly simultaneously. This is how group or herd behavior often operates. While people feel more comfortable being part of a larger group, humans also are so similar in their innate wiring that they will reach nearly identical simultaneous decisions as other people whom they will never meet and never take into consideration. Thus, coming together and forming any nearly unanimous consensus doesn't even require that people are consciously supporting others' ideas. When a depressed asset stages several attempted rallies and fails to sustain most of the gains, and this happens several times, investors will subconsciously conclude that the possibility of a sustained uptrend is impossible. Probably this is because, thousands of years ago, those who tried over and over to accomplish something truly hopeless had to be dissuaded from wasting too much time. Thus, we developed the tendency to conclude after a certain number of attempts at anything that we should try something different. An insect trapped in a room will do this; as a kid I noticed that a fly will try four or five times to get out of a windowpane in exactly the same way, and will then move in a different direction. As a result, a certain number of failed rallies will be even more effective than a collapse in coaxing investors to give up on the possibility of an extended rebound...."

  • Reply to

    BGEIX outperforming gold

    by jshaef1 Mar 4, 2015 6:01 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Mar 5, 2015 6:33 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Mar 4 2015 8.02

    Looks like we will take out then 7.91 by the end of the week. Dec 29--let us hope not--but time will tell.

  • A subtle hint of bottoming process that took place in gold stocks is taking place now as it did in late 2000-early 2001 when comparing the BGEIX:GOLD index to BGEIX itself. Exact pattern is playing out and could signal an end to this nonsense. Seems right now may be a great time to increase the averaging into BGEIX to a little more than the min. per day, with the traditional monkey-hammer of gold scheduled for Friday unenjoyment (employment) day. We just made a new higher low at 8.13--and may take out some of the previous higher lows, but the subtle out-performance of gold stocks may be signaling better days.
    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Mar 3 2015 8.13 so far

    Eventually to the moon, but time will not be rushed.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 27, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 24 2015 8.16

    Correction over--with this string of higher lows? We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 21, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 20 2015 8.17

    Correction still ongoing.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 19, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Sitting right at resistance for the last 4 months--if it (ABX) can go higher over the next week or so, would bode well.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 18, 2015 4:48 AM Flag

    Lawsuit Filed Against Banks For Rigging The Price Of Gold

    Against the backdrop of the Greek drama, we have this lawsuit that was filed in New York. The lawsuit accuses the members of the London fix and other bullion banks such as JP Morgan of rigging the gold market.

    The complaint is mainly centered on things that go on at the (London) fix, but by implication this lawsuit affects derivatives and paper contracts that are priced off of the fix. So it affects the Comex and a lot of interbank dealings.

    Bullion Banks Want This Lawsuit To Go Away

    The bullion banks have filed a motion to have the case dismissed. The judge is now reviewing the complaint and will decide whether to let the complaint proceed. If the case is allowed to proceed this would have two important outcomes: One would be that there would surely be a settlement for a very large amount of money — kind of like they did with LIBOR so the banks don’t have to put anyone on the stand.

    The other option would be that we go to discovery and we find out what these banks have really been doing in the gold market. Either way this will be a win for the gold market.---

    Are The Bank's Lawyers Watching Today's Action In Gold?

    Right now the internal legal departments of all these banking institutions that have been involved in price-rigging are carefully watching the desks that are doing it. This is why today’s drubbing in the metals markets is so curious. You would think these type of shenanigans would have stopped by now.-KWN

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 18, 2015 4:33 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 17 2015 8.23

    So far--as I speculated before at least the highest low has not held. More as time passes--the GOLD:XAU ratio has been sticky, so i hope we have seen the last of anything approaching 19 there.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Feb 13, 2015 6:15 AM Flag

    So how fearful is fearful? At current levels, the HUI is trading where gold was back in 2008 at $725.
    However, it gets even worse. The HUI is trading at the same level it was at back in 2005 when gold was
    trading around $420. Gold today, even though depressed itself and down $700 from its 2011 highs is still
    at $1,220. The HUI should be near 320 based on the 2008 levels or near 550 based on the 2005 levels. If
    the market is fearful about gold, it is downright petrified about gold stocks. ...

    There is one more chart that demonstrates why the gold stocks could continue to outperform bullion itself.
    The Gold/HUI ratio has only recently come down from its highest levels since 2000. The 2000 high for
    the Gold/HUI ratio came when gold was hovering between $250 and $300 while the HUI actually fell
    under 50. The current sentiment for gold stocks is not unlike what was seen in 2000 when mentioning the
    word gold stock was liable to bring one “death stares”. Despite the recent improvement for both gold and
    gold stocks “death stares”, remain in vogue. Of course, in 2000 it was also the time to buy gold stocks and
    gold as well. As the saying goes, be greedy when others are fearful. --D. Chapman

  • Long bonds starting to fail, 10 and 30 year? 10 year has been tracing out a long bear flag and the 30 year seems to have failed to take out the top in 2013. Maybe we are finally getting a break in the 30+ year bull market for trashuries. No lower lows yet so it is just a "maybe" so far. Most big stawk dislocations start with bond pain--see the lead up to 1987 and the year 1999. Major dislocation would eventually be good for gold and BGEIX.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 13, 2015 5:49 AM Flag

    Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06
    Feb 11 2015 8.28

    Not sure if the bottom two will hold--have been nibbling at BGEIX each day this week as well as ASIOX and ACITX.

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 11, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    By the way, I'm averaging into BGEIX daily here and also buying ACITX and ASIOX as I believe the biggest surprise of the next 18-24 months will be the return of an inflationary environment, as often happens just before a major recession begins.

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 11, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Best place to look for this pattern is: Three Peaks and a Domed House
    Tim Wood

    June 18, 2006 article

    We are tracing out no 25 in that pattern. The article mentioned was not about gold and not really that accurate, but has a good history about the pattern which we are in.

    The traders talk blog, topic 92028 is the best chart to get a handle on how this pattern is worjing out in the GOLD:XAU ratio. One can hope that no. 25 stops before it gets to 19--I think it will because there are so many gold bears celebrating its demise about now.

  • Reply to

    Recent BGEIX Divi adjusted lows

    by jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:27 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Feb 7, 2015 7:10 AM Flag

    A test around 8 looks very likely--much below and we are just bouncing on the bottom again. Or worse.

  • "What determines gold’s price trend isn’t the amount of gold bought, since the amount bought will always equal the amount sold. Instead, the price trend is determined by the general urgency to sell relative to the general urgency to buy (with the relative urgency to buy/sell being strongly influenced by confidence in the two senior central banks). To put it another way, if the average buyer is more motivated than the average seller, the price will rise, and if the average seller is more motivated than the average buyer, the price will fall. So, how do we know whether the buyers or the sellers are the more motivated group?"--Steve Saville

    True but when bankstas have access to endless paper gold to dump on markets that has some influence. Like when the monkey hammers drop tons of paper gold at their chosen times (hint, we hours of the morning, in light volume situations). hasn't been working great for them lately :)

  • Nov 5 2014 6.77
    Dec 16 2014 6.85
    Dec 23 2014 7.00
    Dec 29 2014 7.22
    Jan 8 2015 7.91
    Jan 14 2015 8.06

  • Reply to

    Inflation surprises

    by jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 6:53 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 26, 2015 2:18 AM Flag

    The seeds of inflation have been sown. As economies slowly rebalance and recover, the inflationary pressures already present today will become more obvious. In this context, in order to formulate a view on asset allocation, it is necessary to turn to history to better understand the relationship between inflation and asset returns."--Nic Johnson

TMV
26.52-0.94(-3.42%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT