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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

jshaef1 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 4:59 PM Member since: Mar 4, 2009
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  • Could be a good sign--bankstas running deep stops to help cover their shorts. Similar to the running of the stops in silver Sunday night bringing that down to 14 or so.

  • Reply to

    GDX flash crash near the close Dec 3, 2014

    by jshaef1 Dec 4, 2014 8:16 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Dec 4, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Draghi said they discussed purchasing everything BUT gold. So all that debt is far superior :)

    "A choice must be made between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government, ...... I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold.” - George Bernard Shaw.

    "The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth" - Alan Binder Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman, Nightly Business Report 1994

  • Reply to

    GDX flash crash near the close Dec 3, 2014

    by jshaef1 Dec 4, 2014 8:16 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Dec 4, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Ask Fleck:

    Q: The other day Cramer and the rest of the CNBC clown posse was ripping the Apple traders that sold Apple all at once at the open. They never say a peep about the traders dumping gold at the open, close, and during the day, like GDX on Wednesday PM near the close. See no evil there?


    Fleck: Well, they are just cheerleaders - not objective analysts of events.

    Q: It seemed like there was a mini "flash crash" in GDX and related underlying stocks in the last minute or two of trading on Wednesday. Did you notice this and if so do you have any idea what caused it?

    Fleck: Someone pointed it out to me, I have no idea why or what it means - mostly likely it is just computer generated noise.

    Ask the magic eight ball:

    Q. Is there a good or bad future for GDX based on the flash crash on Dec 3?

    Magic Eight ball: Outlook not so good

    There you have it--eight ball is smarter than Fleck and right so far today.

  • Reply to

    GDX flash crash near the close Dec 3, 2014

    by jshaef1 Dec 4, 2014 8:16 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Dec 7, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    "When all the sellers have been either manipulated or scared out of the market, that leaves only buyers."--Absolutely

  • Reply to


    by jshaef1 Dec 14, 2013 6:46 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Dec 12, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    " Personally you have to be averaging into weakness because the miners don't just pop a little when they pop!!"

    Fast forward a year--slightly below where we were a year ago--comment above from my Dec 14 2013 post. Yeah, they've popped and dived, but mostly just gone nowhere. So there has been plenty of time for averaging :)

  • Reply to

    Countdown to another top in the ratio

    by jshaef1 Nov 20, 2014 5:17 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Dec 16, 2014 5:01 AM Flag

    New all time high for the GOLD:XAU ratio yesterday showing a intraday surge to 19.11.
    the close at 18.63 for 12.15.14 is lower than the Nov 5 close of 18.97.

    There is a chart pattern called three peaks and a domed house that the GOLD:XAU resembles. In the dome part of the pattern we may be tracing out 23 right now.

    I'm still buying small chunks of BGEIX on this weakness--well the smallest you can, daily. Don't know when things will turn. We have gone sideways since last December with plenty of volatility and we are now playing around in the 7's while we were in the 8's at this time last year. Remember 5.70 was the bottom in 2008 on a dividend adjusted basis.
    Time for a change and an end to gold stock under performance of gold since 1967, but may have to wait for Ms. Janet Felon and the boyz to finish the jibber jabber on Wed.

  • Since January 1 2005 up to December 19 2014, BGEIX had 2511 market days. Adjusted for dividends, price was over 19 for 474 days during that trading period. Adjusted for dividends it was under 10 for 492 days. The first time during that time frame it went over 19 was on March 5, 2008, when gold was priced at about $980 per share--it closed at $19.03 that day. On December 19, 2014 BGEIX closed at 7.69 per share.

    GOLD:BGEIX ratio was about 52 in March 2008 and was 157 on December 19 2014. This absurd, but its also absurd that BGEIX is now worth 40% of its March 5 2008 price with gold significantly higher.

    Someday this will be adjusted--still buying at prices under 8 here, everyday.

  • Ratio (GOLD:XAU) black candle spiked similar to today on Nov 10--put a little more on BGEIX today--will be back to a Franklin a day as long as it is below 8, tomorrow. Could be a higher low forming, but no real conviction :).

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Dec 24, 2014 4:13 AM Flag

    About 25 cents of the price change yesterday was dividend--Yahoo is terrible in keeping track of this. So the low for this cycle now goes to about 6.76 on a dividend adjusted basis and the low in 2008 is around 5.45 now. Eventually it will be reflected in the daily price tables here, but never in the Yahoo charts as they are not adjusted for divis.

    Not that it all matters much as we are so used to old reliable going down, whose to know ? :)

  • Stockcharts has dividend adjusted prices for BGEIX now, although Yahoo historical prices have not yet been adjusted.

    Recent low of 6.77 on Nov 5 followed by slightly higher lows of 6.85 on Dec 16 and 7 on Dec 23. (all 2014)

    2008 low on 10-27-08 now listed #$%$51 adjusted for dividends.

    2013 December activity was stuck squarely in the 8's as lows scrapped in the 8.10 area on several occasions during the month.

    So while things look a bit more favorable, we had a whole year to bottom fish and there is not much reason to buy over the dividend adjusted 7 now, as those bargains have been taken over the long course of 2014. The ratio (GOLD:XAU) also looks favorable after reaching over 19 (currently mid 17 range)--don't know if it is headed for a triple top o if we had the top recently.

    At any rate, no buying here til 7 or below and certainly not hoping for that. Most likely there will be surge of 25% or more in a short time period of a week or less to let us know that something has changed with BGEIX, but not sure exactly when.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Dec 28, 2014 5:22 AM Flag

    GOLD:XAU doesn't show the double top on the weekly chart like it does on the daily chart for the last few months of 2014. On the weekly ratio chart, there is a big black candle sitting out above with 19.04 as the high. On both charts MACD seems to be rolling over. It would be great to see some lower lows here in both the weekly and daily on the way to 9.

    With any tax loss selling concluding soon, one wonders where the panic could be now with BGEIX making slightly higher lows this month? While the chart pattern looks more constructive than the one from 2013, time will tell and orders will be placed if we look to be going under 7. All other prices have been bought up over the course of the last year.

    Charts give you a view of what has happened--no real insight other than squiggles for giggles.

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jan 1, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    While the long bond had a bullish 2014 it started out at a lower low and has not put in a higher high than the 2013 high.
    TLT has however gone on to new highs, a stunning disconnect. A massive squeeze of bond shorts apparently that has little to do with actual rates other than to exaggerate the 2014 long bond move that has been bullish for the year but nothing like TLT.
    So will TLT drag the long bond to new highs or is it a coyote about to experience gravity.

    Perhaps gravity taking hold?

    "Something else that affects gold's price trend is the DIFFERENCE between long-term and short-term interest rates (the yield-spread, or yield curve), with a rising yield-spread ('steepening' yield curve) being bullish for gold and a falling yield-spread (flattening yield curve) being bearish. It works this way because a rising trend in long-term interest rates relative to short-term interest rates generally indicates either falling market liquidity (associated with increasing risk aversion and a flight to safety) or rising inflation expectations, both of which are bullish for gold."--Steve Saville

  • jshaef1 by jshaef1 Jan 1, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    TLT compared to USB is hinting that the momo for long bonds is waning and that the longer bear since 2012 in the long bonds will reassert itself. If the yield curve begins to steepen as indicated by a rise in STTP, this could be the impetus for BGIEX to move up dramatically although with a slight delay as shown on a chart comparing BGEIX with STTP. I think there is a decent chance that BGEIX could be around 15 at the end of 2015, if the steepening of the US Bond yield curve plays out and the longer term bear in the long bond reasserts itself.

  • Last time we were here was Oct 21--around 8.67 then dividend adjusted.

    GOLD:XAU ratio got as low as 15.41 on Jan 12, 2015. It was at these levels back in early October 2014 before it made a double top. The ratio may bounce off 14.75 or around there on the 200 day moving average--the 50 day moving average has already started to turn down.

    6.85 was the low for this move for BGEIX, dividend adjusted. The low in Oct 2008 was 5.51 dividend adjusted for the one in Dec 2014.

  • Looks like we are headed for a third peak on the GOLD:XAU ratio to complete the three peaks and a domed house pattern that has been tracing out over the last three years. Remember that the lows so far for BGEIX are 6.77 in November and 6.85 in December for this latest bear market move (dividend adjusted). The low in 2008 was 5.51 (also divi adjusted). I will buy a little BGEIX at the close today, 1/14/15. I sure don't want to see new lows to go below November's 6.77, but doubt if the darn thing will listen to me :). Anytime its under 8 its good, though.

  • Let's not mince words or dance around the issue: The S&L Crisis arose because banks created money by emitting credit that was unbacked by anything and then tried to hide what they had done when the losses they made were exposed as exceeding their net available capital. When those who had lent them money (depositors, specifically) tried to collect their funds they discovered they had been lost to these bad, speculative, over-levered bets -- that is, the institution had actually created money (via the emission of credit) beyond its capital and earnings power and was unable to pay.

    The falsification of the backing claims for these "loans" was the fraud, and fraud is illegal everywhere and anywhere because you are asserting something that is not true for the explicit purpose of inducing someone to take a financial action that has no rational means of being economically sound but for your intentional deception.

  • The sad reality is that this is how governments get in trouble too. It's how Detroit got in trouble, for example -- they promised to pay (via issuance of bonds and pension obligations) predicated on tax revenues that had no hope, given the arithmetic, of being able to be realized. That's fraud.

    Greece got in trouble the same way. They issued billions of Euros worth of debt far beyond their ability to tax in the present or reasonable future -- that is, by the time of the bond's maturity -- to ever pay the value of said bonds back.

    When the markets called their bluff they suddenly had a big problem.

  • It is impossible, mathematically, for it to be otherwise.

    Not only should the Greek Government (and the US Government, for that matter) be in prison for these acts of fraud but so should those who advocate for and wish to assist in promulgating and hiding even more of it.--
    from The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:11 AM Flag

    Little doubt we have started the third peak in the ratio. (GOLD:XAU)

    COTs have gold commercials shorter than ever in the last year.

    We had dumps after peaks in commercial shorts over the last year:

    Would be great if we hold 1200 gold and the ratio stays south of 19 $gold:$xau.

    The domed house is playing out and with the FED (circus) in town, timing perfect. Our long wait will be over soon and maybe the bankstas of the world will finally want to be careful what they asked for about inflation and wishing for it, as other commodities bottom well after gold and start their surges.

    When the CBs finally get their inflationary wishes watch out--averaging into ASIOX and ACITX here, and will buy small amounts of BGEIX if it gets below 8 again.

  • Reply to

    Bond Ponzi Part 6

    by jshaef1 Jan 20, 2015 3:49 AM
    jshaef1 jshaef1 Jan 25, 2015 5:15 AM Flag

    The Deconstruction Of A Former Honorable Man (Bill Black)--Karl Denninger--Google it-- worth a read--not worth trying to reconstruct the missing parts (3.4.5) of the salient points in the article here as Yahoo boards have been scrooged forever. But time marches on and good things always end :)

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