I am not sure that we will see new lows tomorrow, but, eventually it will be there soon or later.
For tomorrow's plan, I am planning to short some more when S&P hits around 1811 (0.38 x 19.91).
S&P 1770 is broken. Are we heading to S&P 1710 (S&P EMA 50)? We may need to see how VIX will play next few days to decide whether it will be in the range of 20 to 25 or 40 to 45.
The reason to follow 100 dma (100 ema is better at this point) is that last year S&P was bounced back at 100 dma whether you believe it or not. Yes, it is an important reference point to make an investment decision at this juncture.
February and March futures are closed at 16.45 and 16.46, respectively, which alerts me tomorrow's market reactions.
How dare you comparing AAPL to MSFT? MSFT has monopolizing products such as Window and Office Suites, but, AAPL has not such products.
I am not sure whether or not today's selloff is related to emerging markets.
We had seen emerging market crisis between 1995 and 1995 when Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Russia and Brazil went through financial crisis. During the period (under the treasure secretary Rubin and his associate Summers), VIX went up as high as 45 while the US market had so called "silicon gold rush." Perhaps it is too early to say emerging markets (especially India, Indonesia, Thailand and Brazil at this time) are facing crisis that they had before. If such events happen, possibly it will be an opportunity to invest.
When QE 1 and 2 were ended in June 2010 and June 2011, I believe VIX level was elevated to 40's. At this time, we are going to see QE tapering in the near future and I am not sure how VIX will respond to the tapering. Probably I will have to wait for some shorting opportunities in the near future.
Our government is already in a deep problem. People say that QE is to spur economic growth, but, I believe that, without QE, US deficit (2T per year) cannot be sustained. When QE stops or tapers, we will probably see interest rate surges (crowding out effect). In this regard, QE and US budget are somehow closely related to each other.
I hope our leaders will have solutions for this in the near future...
Our lawmakers will have budget debates from December 10, 2013 to December 13, 2013 (4 days) and they will return to Washington on the week of January 6, 2014. The 2013 fiscal year budget deadline is January 15, 2014.
It is too early to consider the risks associated with U.S. budget at this time. But, it is apparent another budget related volatility is coming, which means I have to do something to protect my portfolio (probably sold my 80 percent position).
10 yr yield has been going up to 2.75% since late October and S&P seems to be toppy with 1760+/-10.
On September 27, there was about 250 million trading volume (about five times larger than daily average volume). Just tell me what happened on that day just for curiosity. (I know that everyone including Ackman hates this company but I am open to any opinion for JCP longs).
At S&P 100 dma and VIX 20.5, I am still waiting for better VXX short positions. Perhaps we are going to see below S&P 200 dma (1600)?