Our government is already in a deep problem. People say that QE is to spur economic growth, but, I believe that, without QE, US deficit (2T per year) cannot be sustained. When QE stops or tapers, we will probably see interest rate surges (crowding out effect). In this regard, QE and US budget are somehow closely related to each other.
I hope our leaders will have solutions for this in the near future...
Our lawmakers will have budget debates from December 10, 2013 to December 13, 2013 (4 days) and they will return to Washington on the week of January 6, 2014. The 2013 fiscal year budget deadline is January 15, 2014.
It is too early to consider the risks associated with U.S. budget at this time. But, it is apparent another budget related volatility is coming, which means I have to do something to protect my portfolio (probably sold my 80 percent position).
10 yr yield has been going up to 2.75% since late October and S&P seems to be toppy with 1760+/-10.
On September 27, there was about 250 million trading volume (about five times larger than daily average volume). Just tell me what happened on that day just for curiosity. (I know that everyone including Ackman hates this company but I am open to any opinion for JCP longs).
At S&P 100 dma and VIX 20.5, I am still waiting for better VXX short positions. Perhaps we are going to see below S&P 200 dma (1600)?
I guess some people remember VIX surged to 22 last December 2012 for budget related concerns. At this time, we have a government shutdown facing an uncontentious budget deal ahead at the VIX level of 17.
I think it will be good idea considering to establish VXX short positions above the VIX level of 22. I could be wrong but I know VIX moves very fast based on previous cases related to debt ceiling concerns. I guess it is time to closely watch VIX level and VIX future spreads again.
I am sure that there are many opportunities to make money with VXX as you have mentined. At this time, I am looking for the peak of fears (about or more than 22 VIX).
S&P has been supported at 50 dma and I am not sure where it is heading at this time. I think headlines will move the markets until the budget matters are resolved.
S&P 20 dma is going to cross down S&P 50 dma and it is possible to see S&P 200 dma. At this time I am thinkin I will try to short VXX around S&P 1510.
You know it is not easy to manage my wife's money. Sometimes a standard deviation is too much for me to handle. So I am sidelined at this time.
Wes, how soon the semester will begin? At this time I am just waiting for a SP break down at this time with cash positions.