In addition to steep contango, in my opinion, next 2 to 3 trading sessions will not be kind to vxx longs based on a 15 dma pattern (as long as there is no market event).
If you it is in the trading range, it is a good idea to short. But, in my opinion, we will have a pretty good opportunity to short AAPL before and/or after the next July earnings report realizing AAPL is not a growth company anymore. At this time, the AAPL price is stabilized because its buyback and dividend plans.
I do not think a vxx downtrend is not completed yet. Probably we will see vxx 10 dma will cross down 15 dma in the next three trading sessions...
When 5 VXX dma crosses down 10 and 15 dma's and VXX tracks 5 dma, we will see a downtrend. I do not the target price though at this time.
I think AAPL price will be stabilized with its dividend and buyback plans, which is good news for the tech sector and our markets in general. In this case, AAPL will not be a market headache anymore for a while.
I believe there are many different ways of trading whether you like those or not. I try to understand other people's opinions as long as I believe such strategies make money.
We have G-20 news on Japanese monetary policies that may boost our markets tomorrow.
Personally I am very interesting in AAPL earnings report on 4/23. Almost everyone expects a poor AAPL earnings report at this time and, in this regard, AAPL price went down as low as 385 last week. If the AAPL price stabilizes around 385 +/-10, I believe it will be a good indication to the tech sector as well as the markets in general.
I hope there will no such a horrible event such as the Boston marathon bombing in the near future so that our markets will be healed quickly.
I do not think it will be back to 32. Last 5 trading days has been very busy, but, I do not think we will not have that many events in the near future.
I believe a 10% s&p correction will results in a 40 to 80% vxx price chance. Of course, it depends on how fast it goes down.
We have 12.06 spot vix, steep contango (12.75 & 14.15), relative high 1588 s&p (all time 1596 s&p) and 1.310 eur (at resistance). I do not see any market events to shoot up vxx at this time and believe s&p will be consolidated next week.
My hear wants to see an upbeat AAPL earnings report on 4/23 so that I can purchase XLK. However, my mind doubts such an event because of competition (lowering profit margin).