It looks as if the "shorts" are making money and have been since the earnings announcement. Thinking about buying in - don't do it yet. You'll never guess the bottom; don't try catching the falling knife. WAIT!
Frank-ly, I find it fascinating you seem more concerned about the direction of the thumbs than about the direction of the stock. Barring some new development, like the breaking of the thumbs, the stock should level off in the next few weeks (above $2). However, just when it begins to climb the "stay away in May" will send it down again - maybe.
Isn't there a saying . . something about catching a falling knife? It doesn't bode well when most of the posts (although many are by the same person using various IDs) are bullish. I'm guessing we may not have hit the bottom.
I doubt if Smallpox can penetrate the "ring of steel". Bigpox, on the other hand, could wreak havoc.
I guess you now know the answer to your question. Siga is a 10% environment in which, if you're patient and not greedy you can actually make money.