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MGM Resorts International Message Board

jtyler2030 466 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 16, 2013 1:55 AM Member since: Oct 19, 2011
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  • Reply to

    I would sell this hand over fist

    by jtyler2030 Mar 12, 2013 4:24 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 16, 2013 1:55 AM Flag

    Haha what the hell? I have never had ANY position in this company EVER. Long or short.

    Let me re-post the end of my last comment on here: Oh and now were are at a $400 million dollar valuation with $28 million in annual revenues. The red light has to go off in your head at some point.

  • Reply to

    Jtyler didn't go far enough with Sales

    by black_swanm Mar 12, 2013 6:58 PM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 14, 2013 11:00 PM Flag

    Have fun with cnoinvestor. As you have already seen he knows EVERYTHING. And he attacks just about everybody here.

  • Reply to

    FLL probably will continue to slide

    by black_swanm Mar 14, 2013 12:54 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 14, 2013 10:57 PM Flag

    Bad idea man.

  • Reply to

    FLL probably will continue to slide

    by black_swanm Mar 14, 2013 12:54 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 14, 2013 10:57 PM Flag

    I wouldn't touch LACO with a 10 foot pole.

  • Reply to

    I would sell this hand over fist

    by jtyler2030 Mar 12, 2013 4:24 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 14, 2013 2:22 AM Flag

    I'm not using the PSR to compare to any other company. It is a linear comparison if you want to use it across all companies. All have sales and revenue's and all trade around the volume of business they do.

    But I'm not comparing the PSR of SYRG to anything by SYRG. Just watch. Profits can grow by 80% and the equity will only grow by a fraction of the growth. Profits are new to this company and so are margins. If sales stall, then profits could tank. This especially hits new companies hardest.

    and at what is now 14 times a valuation to the actual volume of business this company does... There is a lot more risk than people are admitting too.

    Oh and now were are at a $400 million dollar valuation with $28 million in annual revenues. The red light has to go off in your head at some point.

  • Reply to

    I would sell this hand over fist

    by jtyler2030 Mar 12, 2013 4:24 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 13, 2013 3:24 AM Flag

    Apple never had a high PE ratio in the last couple years. Look what happened there.

    For the last two quarters I have the net profit margin in the mid 20's.

    The issue with your statement, is that I'm not mixing and matching data to find an argument. I'm looking at the top line and the bottom line, and both are very scary. The PE is over 30.

    It will be very hard for the stock to continue to stay at these "richly" valued levels for an extended period.

  • Reply to

    I would sell this hand over fist

    by jtyler2030 Mar 12, 2013 4:24 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 12, 2013 4:11 PM Flag

    I'm not arguing that the company won't grow. Just don't expect the equity to respond anymore like it would in the past.

    The equity is priced at SO many times the actual amount of business this company does, even at Mr. jdcralnc's rate of 80% growth for anything as in sales or earnings (top or bottom line) you won't see the equity respond all that well.

    Going back to the great depression there are very few companies who ever overcame enormous Price-to-sales ratios. P&G and IBM namely top the list.

    A Price-to-Sale Ratio of 3 would generally be considered high. Were doing with a PSR of almost 14!!!

  • Everything is looking great, revenues are growing, profits have finally come about but there is a huge red flag. The Price-to-Sales ratio.

    Market Cap of $388 million / Sales of $28 million put the price to sales ratio at 13.85.

    In other words, let me give you a comparison. An established company in Conoco Phillips has a PSR of 1.18.

    Let me put this another way. You are paying for a valuation 13 times the volume of business this company does. Let's all roll on back to the Dot.BOMB era and buy at 100x PE multiples. If your buying here, you are nuts. Nominal returns will only be achieved through huge rates of growth.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • That's what I see here with the many self-promoting pumpers on this board. If your #$%$ off at this post, then you deserve it. For the rest of you, don't waste your time.

    1. I find myself in amateur land when I present very seldom used tools to value companies and I get told "Your Wrong" "You can't value casino stocks." Just because you don't have the answers and are not a millionaire doesn't mean you have to come after my ideas.

    2. I find it amazing at how nobody could present an idea of how to value a company besides using Net Income or Cash Flow (basically bottom line stuff) to value a company. Yet you still said I was wrong!!! Ha ha what?

    3. You started the personal attacks... Just a true shame right there.

    4. People only presented problems but never solutions. You would never make it at a major investment bank or fund if your going to only take a shot half the puzzle. Think, expand your mind.

    Don't worry too much about hating me. Take the lessons for what it's worth and realize you can learn something from everybody. I had fun extracting your opinions, and bias about FLL. Too bad nobody will have taken much of my knowledge.

    I really don't have time to sit here and beat around the bush. I only can get on late at night and to boot I have money to run everyday. It's been fun. Keep buying this thing. Someday, you'll have money. Maybe I'll see some of you at the shareholders meeting(s) one of these years.

    - Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SELLS ANOTHER 5000 FLL TODAY

    by josejosb Mar 7, 2013 11:03 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 11, 2013 11:13 PM Flag

    You can understand how you would be confused so easily with a multitude of idiots on this board pretending to be big shots.

  • It produces loses Year after year. The operations of the business are not even profitable. It trades at nearly 3 times it's sales. And it has assets of $11 million which means it trades at just under 8x the physical assets it possesses.

    None of this spells out a company remotely worth $84 million dollars. I'd be scared to get the hammer dropped on me if I owned this thing.

    YIKES!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Much of the attention to the Q4 numbers has been very negative, however most people I see here did not see what happened or they would have reacted differently. The company basically only reported an operational net income (profit) of $200,000... But the story changed forever.

    Silver Slipper reported Q4 which as disclosed was reporting in the worst seasonal quarter with only a 14% margin. If you listened to the call, or would like to go back and read the transcript by SeekingAlpha you will see a very important tid-bit. The actual full year margins of Silver Slipper are in the low 20's as was the case in 2012. Q4 is the weakest quarter in the whole year.

    Why is this significant? The rest of the portfolio has EBITDA margins of around 6-8%. Casino operator's should be running margins in the mid 20's if they want to have a very profitable business.

    While most of the attention is being given to new competition in Cincinnati and revenues of the Rising Star, people are missing the on-going story. This is a company looking to grow. Rising Star was purchased for a measly $40 million and is now paid off. Revenues if you wanna harp on that were $19 million in a 90 day period. Not bad to have revenues hit 50% of the purchase price in 90 days.

    You can discuss whatever you like, but the future of this company is not in the properties of the past. But the properties and the higher margins in the future. Management is also going to add a hotel at Silver Slipper casino. This will only help the property even more. The numbers tell you a story if you want to listen. This company has a strong track record managing casino's. This will translate nicely into higher margin properties it acquires in the future.

    I can't wait to see what the next numbers are with Silver Slipper always having it's best quarter in Q1.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rising Star Revenues are falling off a cliff

    by davidc334 Mar 9, 2013 10:38 PM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 10, 2013 8:41 PM Flag

    David, what do you think the new Hotel will do for the Rising Star property? You have been hammering on 1 event for a while with the opening of the cincy casino... This is one event in 1 quarter. Will a new hotel not keep customers at Rising Star for longer? Will spend per trip increase? Management always talks about how the Rising Star customer base is different than one that will be served in Cincy or Cleveland. Would you also like to point at that the Rising Star is one of the smallest grossing casino's in Indiana? You don't think that a casino with this small of operations is susceptible to taking a hit? You seem shocked by all of this. Management knew of the Cincy casino opening.

    My question is: Whats your point? This seems stupid.

    I see you posing a problem. Is your statement just to post numbers and imply an issue then run away? What is your conclusion? In all of your posts you have said nothing about a conclusion. You generally don't have people check you like this huh?

    Even thought this company was founded as a "casino property management" firm, you don't think they will be able to continue to make money? Where does all this lead? Can you formulate that?

  • Reply to

    SELLS ANOTHER 5000 FLL TODAY

    by josejosb Mar 7, 2013 11:03 AM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 10, 2013 8:27 PM Flag

    So your a troll... This explains everything. You are seriously a huge SOB. You don't see me going after people like this do you? Wow, and you called me a "punk kid." Your such a little child.

  • Reply to

    Internet Poker - Federal Level Talks

    by jtyler2030 Mar 9, 2013 6:08 PM
    jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 10, 2013 6:02 PM Flag

    Throughout your history on Yahoo! I see that you only attack people on these message boards. You tell everybody else how they are wrong.

    I enjoy coming on these boards with the common rabble like yourself. Your not talking to an average investor here pal. And to be honest I'm getting a little sick of your Ad-Hom or "personal" attacks.

    You come on here and say that I need more experience in the industry? Let's dissect another stupid statement by you.

    1. You have NO experience nor anybody in the U.S. discussing or commenting on Internet Poker. I have friends in the U.K. who deal in this business and I ask questions all the time. I don't tell people they don't know what their talking about LIKE YOU when I really don't know something.

    2. You make another personal attack, but fail to state the "why" in how I don't know enough about the industry. So why don't you post about your personal experience in studying internet poker. You already said that it is not a high margin business... Are you sure your not the one who needs more time investing in the industry? IP not a high margin business? Your a joke guy.

    3. You still cannot answer how to value a company based on anything but bottom of the income statement line-items. Deriving your statement from past conversations claiming I don't know how to value companies in this "industry."

    As to where I come from. Do not talk down to me. You do not come from a background superior to mine. You do not work in the highest levels of finance. I generally see this type of arrogance and stupidity in the marketplace from amateurs who pretend to be Fund Managers.

    What do you do for a living?

  • jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 10, 2013 3:02 AM Flag

    Yes, we established people mainly value casino's on Cash Flow BUT that's NOT the case here. Have you check the multiples FLL trades at? Notice how that math is a little off? Why is that?

    Because, this company is so small. Small companies like this you have to value differently.

    Sales is another way you can say "Revenue." Are you arguing semantics because you have nothing important to say?

    I see in your history you do nothing but jab at people. You would do well to listen and learn. I'm not some yahoo just posting on a message board.

    You never answered my question. It's too bad you can't value a company in any other way but profits. It will limit you in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As I have expected, as states begin to pass legislation for online poker the Federal government has watched as states pass them by and create their own laws. If there is one thing the Fed's don't like, it is the states having laws to control something instead of them.

    First off, I think that a name like Full House is awesome for online poker. This is a much better name for an online-interactive gambling company than a brick and mortar casino operation.

    The second biggest thing here is that Full House is tiny... It wouldn't take much by way of revenue and profits to send this stock on a massive ride higher. People look at CZR and MGM for the "best internet poker plays." I totally disagree with that. Yes, they may have the largest revenue share of internet poker, but the equity increase percentage they will see would be nothing to what FLL could do.

    As states pass legislation and the Fed's realize they are soon to be left behind to control this, the better chance you have of making a ton of money. Just 2 months ago one would be laughed at for saying internet poker was a possibility. Now we have Nevada and New Jersey with actual bills that have passed.

    Full house is perfectly located in Nevada to be at the center of the US gambling hub. Nobody is talking about Full House as most don't even know this company exists. This is perfect and is a ripe opportunity. All we need is to continue to grow sales and this could help in a big way. These last words will fall on the ears of the deaf as pretty much all on here don't know how to value, or project out on a company this small. The vicissitudes of business cycles and profitability for a company this small are not taught in business school or laid out in a textbook. You need real experience to deal with this situation, and patience. This point will be refuted by fools again I'm sure.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/09/onlinepoker-federal-idUSL1N0C01JK20130309?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

  • jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 9, 2013 3:54 AM Flag

    I'm no punk "kid." What you don't understand is that the world of finance revolves around profits and cash flow to value companies.

    Have you ever heard of Ken Fisher? The billionaire son of Phil Fisher the other mentor to Warren Buffet? You know Ben Graham but not Phil Fisher I bet. His son brought the valuation technique of sales to some-what popularity among certain circles.

    I don't expect the word "sales" to be used to discuss anything. I don't expect anybody else here to know how to use sales to value a company.

    I know that you don't know how to value a company without profits.

    Can you tell me how you would value a company without profits?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 8, 2013 11:45 PM Flag

    Because I know the business? Haha really? I would much rather prefer not to have to start an education session here. Motley fool or Seeking Alpha wrote an article a little while back about the European IP companies margins. Ranged roughly between 20-30%.

    You build a website, people bring their money, you provide security of doing business in reputable online environment and then you take the rake (%) of the money. Low costs of Internet Poker. Do your work.

    I'm a broker? Ya... I don't think so. Nor am I a "financial adviser." I just like hoping on message boards and seeing what people have to say. And beating some heads on occasion.

    Most people think they know everything on here. I just like testing what people know, seeing what the average Joe thinks. I appreciate all the feedback actually.

  • jtyler2030 jtyler2030 Mar 7, 2013 10:53 PM Flag

    Actually I bought LVS at $9 in 2009 and dumped at about $60. I also do buy LVS in the $30's and sell it on the way up. Like back over the summer... I do all of that bud.

    I think this company has it's flaws. I think it is hard to say that they are a perpetual purchaser of soon to be declining properties. Time will tell. Sales growth has been great and if they keep it up, this company will go somewhere special.

    I own this company because I think it can go somewhere. Over the long term this company will make a lot of people rich. But I agree it doesn't look picture perfect especially after their Q4 numbers. But I believe the future is bright for them. And I'm no fool.

    Internet poker is a high margin business. Especially with a name like Full House, they could carve out a small market share that could pay off any debts and allow them to keep on acquiring properties. If you look at the multiple that this stock trades at, and the PSR, this thing is dirt cheap. Sales will be around $180 million or there about in 2013 and the market cap is $63 million... Companies that get no respect trade at least on par with their sales.

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