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Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X ETF Message Board

judge_smailes8 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 14, 2014 8:07 AM Member since: Dec 17, 1999
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  • I have been waiting for the Brazilian stock market to recover since 2010 and it has yet to happen. Are Brazilian stocks simply a lost cause? My investment in Latin American stocks has performed horribly and it only seems to get worse over time. I have felt for awhile that equity returns are cyclical and returns for Brazilian stocks will eventually start increasing as they did between the late 1980s up until the financial crisis in 2008.

  • Reply to

    The trials and tribulations of the Brazilian long

    by regreg63 Nov 6, 2014 12:04 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Nov 6, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    I agree - I am also invested in Latin American equities. Not EWZ, but something else which suffers when EWZ suffers. The returns of Brazilian stocks and those of most other Emerging Markets have been nothing short of pathetic since about 2010. Maybe this is because of the weakness in Europe or the strength of the Dollar? I certainly don't know the exact answer. However, I still firmly believe that most markets are cyclical and Emerging Markets will eventually be in favor at some point in the future. When that happens, EWZ could double within a period of 24-months or so.

    Unfortunately, I have absolutely no idea when this might occur and major structural changes to the Brazilian economy may be necessary before this becomes a possibility...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Will TQQQ hit 100 by the end of the year?

    by judge_smailes8 Mar 4, 2014 3:50 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 31, 2014 6:25 AM Flag

    It is looking more and more like TQQQ will definitely close out 2014 about 100/share. I'm looking forward to the next share split

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SVXY would need to rise about 56% from today's close of 59.80 to reach its 52-week high of 93.33. How long does everyone think it will take before SVXY hits the mid-90s? Next summer? The end of 2015?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • How is contango calculated for the VIX Short Term Futures Index? According to the CBOE website, as of 10/17/14 at 2:59 PM EST, the 11/22/14 VIX contract closed at 21.00; the 12/20/13 VIX contract closed at 21.44; the 1/17/15 VIX contract closed at 21.26; and the 3/20/15 VIX contract closed at 21.34.

    How is contango calculated for the VIX Short Term Futures Index? Is it simply the second month contract price divided by the first month contract price? In this case, is it 21.44/21.00, or 2.095%?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 16, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Where do you think the bottom is for SVXY or XIV? Another 15-30% drop?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Oct 15, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    Although SVXY closed at 55.59, the IV of SVXY is 50.31, possibly as a result of Netflix's disappointing earnings. So it looks like SVXY shareholders are going to experience more pain tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This thing is dropping FAST!

    by shortdasheet Oct 14, 2014 2:37 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 15, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    SVXY could definitely hit single digits in an extended bear market, but it still isn't going to 0 unless the spot price of the VIX rises maybe 300% in a single day, which I don't see happenning

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This thing is dropping FAST!

    by shortdasheet Oct 14, 2014 2:37 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 15, 2014 4:25 AM Flag

    SVXY will almost certainly never go to zero. Even if the spot price of the VIX rose 100%, the VIX Short Term Futures index would likely rise 30-40% as much. Accordingly, a 100% daily increase in the spot price of the VIX would likely result in a 30-40% daily decrease in SVXY.

    The VIX Short Term Futures Index was created in 2007 and back-dated to December 20, 2005. During this time range, the day on which the spot price of the VIX rose the greatest amount occurred on February 27, 2007, when the spot price of the VIX rose about 64.215% from 11.15 to 18.31. On the same day, the VIX Short Term Futures Index rose from 38,110.1 to 47,465.4, a gain of about 24.548%. This translates into a loss for SVXY of about 24.548%, or about 38% of the % movement of the spot price of the VIX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Oct 15, 2014 4:14 AM Flag

    There is a Forbes article linked to the main Yahoo Finance page for SVXY. I don't think that the spam-guard filters will allow me to post the hotlink here. However, the article indicates that on October 14th, there was a 36.2% increase in the total number of outstanding shares of SVXY (a total of 1,700,000 new units of SVXY were created on 10/14/14). According to Forbes, that was the largest % increase in the total number of outstanding shares of any ETF on 10/14.

    I'm not sure exactly how new units of SVXY are created. For example, I'm not sure whether a market maker requests the creation of new units to meet demand or whether a large investor or stock broker would create the new units. In any event, I take this as a very bullish sign.

    The Forbes article reads, "on a percentage change basis, the ETF with the biggest increase in inflows was the Proshares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), which added 1,700,000 units, for a 36.2% increase in outstanding units."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 6, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Investing 25% of your financial assets in SVXY is fine if you are only investing $25-50k, but that seems like a crazy thing to do if you have $1 million+ in investable assets.

    I like SVXY and I do believe that most of the time SVXY will be in an upward trend. However, I sell periodically to lock in gains. At some point there is no doubt in my mind that SVXY will drop +80% or possibly +90% within a matter of months, wiping out years of gains. Although SVXY would undoubtedly rise again, it would take years to get back to its starting point after a +90% loss if you hadn't been selling periodically to lock in gains. Of course, I would view a +90% drop as a tremendous buying opportunity.

    Leveraged ETFs are exciting and theoretically can produce enormous returns during an extended bull market, but one really needs to have a strategy for locking in gains as the market tends to drop far more quickly and sharply than it rises and this is only amplified with leveraged ETFs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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