TQQQ is by far my best speculative holding. I also own UPRO, SVXY and XIV. TQQQ and UPRO are my biggest holdings, followed by SVXY/XIV and BRZU. I periodically certain short bear leveraged ETFs when they are available, such as TZA, QID, and SPXU. I have never been able to short SQQQ, although that would likely be a fantastic short position to hold.
LBJ/BRZU has been terrible for me, but TQQQ has more than made up for it. I sold my LBJ in Sept/Oct of 2014 and put it into BRZU, which has performed even worse than LBJ. I never saw this type of abysmal performance coming from Latin America, but it will eventually turn around and it has been a learning experience for me and will ensure I keep realistic expectations about my other leveraged holdings.
The trend right now and for the last six years is up, as you noted. I don't doubt that the market will drop during the next bear market, whenever that is. However, given the extreme amounts of liquidity being injected into the market right now, I don't see a bear market happening right now even though the economy does seem somewhat weak.
I definitely won't get wiped out and I am not naive enough to assume that XIV is a buy-and-hold forever ETN. The way to make money on XIV is via a periodic re-balancing strategy. The way to make money on VXX, on the other hand, is to either short it or avoid it altogether. Anyone who thinks bets entirely on XIV either going practically straight up or straight down is a fool, and there are a lot of people posting on this message board who believe that one or the other will necessarily happen at any given time.
I sometimes read the threads here and it astounds me how moronic the typical speculator in XIV is, or at least the ones who post here. The people who post here telling us that XIV is going to drop to 15 in the near term are just as moronic, if not quite a bit more so, than the people who post here telling us that XIV is going to pop to 50 in the near term.
That being said, XIV will almost certainly be in an uptrend most of the time, and the downtrends are likely to be much shorter and sharper than the uptrends. I don't doubt that XIV will drop 90+% within a matter of months from its peak during a sharp bear market. However, after bottoming, XIV will likely revert to an uptrend again.
Normal contango seems to be back. On 2/17/15, the VIX index rose 7.56%, but the market value of XIV only lost 0.31% and the interval value of XIV only dropped about 0.45%. A couple weeks ago, XIV would have probably lost 4% or more on a day when the VIX index rose 7.5%.
But why not simply increase the dividend by 5% each year? I guess that the ultimate effect would be the same, so it just seems strange to me to do an annual 5% stock split while keeping the dividend/share at a constant $1.60 instead of simply increasing the dividend by 5% each year without doing a 5% share split.
Staples cannot compete against Wal-Mart or other discount stores a layer of Obamacare costs is added. That moron Obama is too stupid this out on his own...
I get the distinct feeling that the market volatility of the past few months may be dying down and that the market will resume its uptrend. It would be nice to see XIV rally hard after all of the pain that has been inflicted upon us since last October.
I must be missing something here - how can VGR consistently pay out dividends greater than its EPS?
It looks like EWZ may drop below its 52-week low today to reach its lowest level since March 2009, at the depth of the financial crisis. Unbelievable! I feel like we have to be near capitulation, but I have certainly been wrong about that with respect to EWZ in the past....
If EWZ drops into the teens, that would be absolutely shocking. It is amazing how much damage the corrupt Brazilian politicians have done to EWZ since 2010...
Which is likely to be a better long-term holding, assuming reinvestment of dividends? BTI's earnings are currently stronger, but PM has a much higher dividend yield.
TQQQ will probably hit at least 130-150 during 2015. The Nasdaq-100 should continue to lead the major U.S. indexes higher until the next recession, which probably won't occur this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The Value Line estimated that O earned $0.95/share and paid $2.19/share in dividends in 2014. The Value Line also estimated O had "Funds from Operations" of $2.60/share in 2014.
Apparently the Funds from Operations metric captures the depreciation and amortization expenses? So that is how O can sustain such a large dividend?
Ok, I see what you mean. So the way they increase the book value per share is by issuing new shares? That does seem like a scam.
If they are paying out dividends which are more than twice their earnings and only increase book value/share by issuing new shares, then I don't see how its valuation could possibly be sustainable. Thanks, donkergen.
It looks like the book value per share keeps increasing despite the dividends. I assume that is a result of unrealized increases in property values?
Yes, I did see that. What about unrealized increases in the value of property? Wouldn't that be a benefit that won't show up as earnings until certain properties are sold?
I'm new to this board. How exactly does Realty Income manage to pay dividends that are twice as much as its earnings? According to Yahoo Finance, Realty Income earned 0.98/share and paid out dividends of $2.27/share over the past year.