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Vanguard 500 Index Inv Message Board

judge_smailes8 494 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 12, 2015 10:56 PM Member since: Dec 17, 1999
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  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 12, 2015 10:56 PM Flag

    By the way, to maintain your sanity, you should not have all of your money invested in XIV. You can probably get compounded 12-15% returns in MO or RAI over a long period of time without all of the risk associated with XIV

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 12, 2015 10:54 PM Flag

    I meant to write "uptrend," not "upward"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Oct 12, 2015 10:48 PM Flag

    I don't see how anyone could possibly answer this question unless they guess. I believe that VIX futures have only been traded since 2004, so there's no way to determine just how far XIV would drop during an extended economic depression, such as the Great Depression.

    However, I can tell you that most of the time XIV will likely be in an upward. However, when there are economic shocks, XIV will often quickly drop 50% or more.

    XIV is not a long term buy-and-hold security. Instead, I think that the way to make money on XIV is to periodically re-balance a position to lock in gains when XIV has appreciated or purchase additional shares whenever XIV has decreased in value. For example, if you initially invested $20k in XIV, you could re-balance your position back to $20k every 6-, 12-, or 18- months, or whatever your holding period is. Provided your holding period is not too long, you will probably sell shares during a re-balance (e.g., because the price of XIV has increased) more often than you buy shares during the re-balance (e.g., because the price of XIV has decreased).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Sep 10, 2015 2:57 AM Flag

    I cannot believe how poorly EWZ has performed and it only seems to get worse. Is there any doubt that EWZ is going to dip below $20 in the near future? It is really hard to believe that EWZ actually closed at $49.80 on 9/10/14, just one year ago. EWZ also closed at $70.91 on 9/10/10, five years ago.

    I would like to think that we are at the capitulation stage, but I've thought that many times during the past five years and have been wrong each time...

  • Reply to

    why is this pos not rebounding

    by kenwatts275 Aug 25, 2015 10:32 AM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Aug 25, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    The VIX is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It is calculated by the Chicago Board of Trade and is calculated for at least 15 minutes after SVXY has closed trading. Yesterday, the VIX kept rising after SVXY has ceased trading for the day. Although SVXY closed at 57.14 yesterday, the net asset value at the time at which the VIX closed was 52.07. So the net asset value of SVXY was actually about 8.87% below its closing value.

    As of right now, the VIX is down 24% and SVXY is down about 0.51%. However, the net asset value of SVXY is actually up about 9.2%. During large moments of the VIX, SVXY tends to move about 40% as much in the opposite direction. So this price of SVXY is about what I would expect it to be today.

    If you want to see the net asset value of SVXY, look up the quote on Yahoo Finance for ^SVXY-IV

  • Reply to

    Amazing how quickly the market has turned

    by judge_smailes8 Aug 24, 2015 5:26 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Aug 24, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    The VIX at 40.74 means that traders believe that there is a 68% chance of the S&P 500 Index moving (usually dropping) about 11.8% during the next 30 days. The S&P 500 Index (and SVXY) will probably continue dropping unless a central bank steps in and does something big...

  • The VIX closed at 15.25 on Wed, 8/19, and at 40.74 today. That is a 167% increase in just three dating days. This is by far the largest increase in the VIX over a 3-trading day period. The next largest increase since the creation of the VIX in 1990 was a 105% increase during August 2011.

    During this same period SVXY has decreased from a closing value of 91.85 on 8/19 to 57.74 today, a drop of 37.1%. The NAV of SVXY is even lower right now - it is down 9.8% in the after-hours market to 52.10.

    This movement should show everyone that SVXY is not a long-term hold. However, I still think that a lot of money can be made off SVXY because the majority of the time SVXY is going to be rising. the key is to periodically sell to lock in gains or add to a position when SVXY has plummeted.

    SVXY may go down a bit more from here. However, I have no doubt that when the markets finally calm, which they will, SVXY will start a sharp new uptrend, just like like in did after the carnage in 2011 and in Oct. 2014

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Adjusted for reinvestment of distributions, EWZ closed at 69.705 on 4/4/2011. Today it closed at 27.21. That is a drop of nearly 61% over the past 4 years at a time when U.S. stocks have steadily risen higher.

    The scary thing is that EWZ seems like it could continue to drop lower and lower. I'd like to say we are close to capitulation, but I've thought that before only to see the bottom drop out yet again.

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Aug 6, 2015 2:46 AM Flag

    I meant "poster-child," not "poser-child."

  • It astounds me that the total return (including reinvestment of dividends) of RAI is greater than 5,200% since the market close on 12/31/1999! That is an annualized return of nearly 29% since then.

    I know that Altria is generally considered the poser-child for tobacco stocks, but Altria's total return (accounting for spin-offs and dividend reinvestment) is nowhere near as high as that of RAI. Earlier in the year I calculated the total return of an investment in Altria on 12/31/1999, assuming reinvestment of dividends in Altria and in the spin-offs, and calculated a total return of about 1,450% through early January 2015. I have not yet updated by calculations, but I think that the total return through 8/5/15 is probably around 1,600% or so.

    Does anyone have any theories as to why RAI has outperformed MO by such a large margin since 12/31/1999, and is it likely to continue to do so?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Jul 29, 2015 4:22 AM Flag

    Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't Altria and Reynolds ideal investments going forward over the next 10-20 or longer? They are in an industry dominated by two major players, controlling something like 85% of the U.S. tobacco market. Their products are addictive so they have loyal customers. Although the number of U.S. smokers has been decreasing for decades, smokers are very loyal. Altria and Reynolds aren't foolish enough to engage in a price war and each has a certain degree of pricing power. There are also huge barriers to entry given the advertising prohibitions.

    Obviously there is always the potential for the government to completely ban smoking and there is an ongoing litigation risk. MO and RAI seem like ideal investments for anyone who plans on investing for a long period of time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Jul 23, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    Every time I think the EWZ is about to bottom, more bad news comes out of Brazil, which causes EWZ to re-test its lows or hit new multi-year lows.

    Are we going to have to wait until mid-2016 before EWZ finally bottoms? I would think that EWZ is due for a large pop if Brazil ever gets inflation under control and starts growing and attracting new investor money again...

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 Jul 23, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    It astounds me that Latin American stocks have performed so poorly since 2010. Every time I think that the Latin American stocks are about to bottom, more bad news comes out of Brazil which causes their markets to hit new multi-year lows....

  • judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Jun 24, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Thanks. I do own RDS-B shares in a taxable account and in an IRA. I took the dividend in cash in my IRA because I heard that the dividend would be reinvested into shares of RDS-A, not RDS-B.

    However, I decided to reinvest my RDS-B dividend in my taxable account and it was reinvested into shares of RDS-A, which is confusing. Luckily, however, there was no 15% withholding.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I know that anyone who receives the dividend from RDS-A in cash will be subject to the 15% Dutch tax withholding. Is the dividend also subject to the 15% Dutch withholding if the shareholder receives the dividend in the form of more RDS-A shares under their scrip program?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BTI Dividend reinvestment through Fidelity

    by judge_smailes8 May 14, 2015 2:43 AM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 May 15, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    I figured it out. There is a 1 cent/share ADR fee deducted from the dividend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 May 15, 2015 6:41 AM Flag

    The Inverse VIX Short Term Futures index is on fire right now! When SVXY dropped into the upper 40s at the end of January, some people here were thought it was going much lower. Yet here we are approaching the mid-80s. SVXY may break through $100/share by the summer.

    I do admit that the drop from mid-Oct 2014 through Jan 2015 caught me off guard and reminded me of just how volatile and unpredictable the underlying index is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I purchased my first shares of BTI through Fidelity in early March and automatically reinvested my first dividend. I was charged a small reinvestment fee. Is this an ADR fee?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • judge_smailes8 by judge_smailes8 May 14, 2015 2:42 AM Flag

    I have read in several places that the amount of the dividend paid on 5/12/15 was supposed to be $3.105924/share. However, I checked my Fidelity statement and it looks like I actually received $3.06167/share. That isn't a huge difference, but it about 1.4% below what I thought it was going to be. Is this discrepancy due to strengthening of the US Dollar relative to the British pound?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by cthuhulu Apr 13, 2015 4:43 PM
    judge_smailes8 judge_smailes8 Apr 14, 2015 5:58 AM Flag

    I think that the company wants to increase its total dividend amount/share every calendar year. However, since the last increase was in the middle of 2014, even if they don't increase the dividend at all this year, the total dividend/share payment will still increase. For example, PM paid $3.88/share in 2014, so if they leave the dividend where it is, the payout in 2015 will be $4.00/share.

    Assuming the Dollar stops strengthening or the rate at which the Dollar strengthens slows next year, I think we'll see an increase in 2016.

    Sentiment: Buy

VFINX
187.93-7.01(-3.60%)Jun 24 6:45 PMEDT