How did you arrive at those odds?
And if you really think it's just a gamble, why are you investing here at all? Why not just go to Vegas?
Do you keep up with the news, are you familiar with the lawsuits and the facts of the case?
If so, you know the government is I violation of the law, even as it defines the law in its own documents and and doesn't have a leg to stand on.
Fnma is under conservatorship right now, legally. If you understand what that means, legally, I think you would have a good reason for investing here, whereas right now you make it sound like you're just playing roulette.
Don't get fooled by traders. Be an investor.
All stocks have huge price fluctuations in the short term. So what? Investors don't care. Fnma fluctuations are bigger and faster than many stocks but high volatility doesn't make something a gamble.
Also not sure how you got burned? Did you sell for a loss in the past instead of holding your shares? If you did that was your mistake. Jo one forced you to sell. No investor would sell. That's why you shouldn't trade if you want the big payoff that comes with longterm investment. Trading is gambling. Investing in FNMA is not.
You can find the article on the website: housingwire
Article is positive but user comment is misleading. Someone here should educate him
35 per share, you mean? Nothing less would be reasonable as a rise in pog will confirm soon enough
It's always darkest before the dawn.
Aveo no longer met klarman's investing criteria. He always cuts investments that lose a certain percentage or fall a certain amount. He does this to preserve capital , regardless of future potential.
Ironic though: he disposed of his stake right before a major positive transitional event: aveo got EMA submission eligibility! So it may turn out that the FDA rejection that wrecked this stock will be redeemed by EMA approval. Chances are much better with the EMA than the FDA. And will result in a big price reversal. But Klarman won't be around to enjoy it.
Think about the value this company represents. Try to come up with a reasonable valuation based on that.
If it sold for 2 , it would be selling for .80 more than net cash.
Does that seem like a fair valuation to you? The medical assets the company represents are worth .80, worth less than the cash it has?
Bashing on this board has definitely reached beyond psychotic proportions.
I decided to get serious with the ignore function and have found that after putting the bashers on ignore, about 99% of the messages are gone.
Crazy the lengths some short funds will go to to defend a position and even crazier how low some people will sink just to make a few cents on each post. Yes I know some of these people post 100 times a day, but it's still a sad, unethical, and impractical way to make money.
Nice to see some actual news posted here, and something relevant to AMD's business.
Interesting there is no reply to this and no discussion in the thread.
Meanwhile bashers have managed to create bloated threads full of "short and distort" fear tactics and take over the board.
I am starting to get more strict with my use of the "ignore" function. Too much time wasted by sheer drivel.
AMD is "virtually bankrupt."
Better send the memo to Microsoft, Sony, Verizon, and Apple.
You clearly have information large companies doing business with AMD lack. I'm sure the executives at Microsoft, Sony, Verizon, and Apple, would appreciate it if a chronic Yahoo msg board bahser were to share his wisdom with them.
What are you waiting for? Stop wasting your time here and take your bankruptcy gospel to the offices of these corporations. Get on it, man!
talk is cheap, cheetah.
since you claim to know for certain the OP is making a big mistake, lay out the correct "course of action" he should take.
Put your money where your mouth is, since you claim to know.
What would you have the OP buy as opposed to VALE?
Do you want him to go long SPY at these levels?
Should he buy one of the overvalued megacaps that has been going up non-stop since 2009?
What should he do?
Since you are benevolent and knowledgeable and obviously here to help out less knowledgable people, tell the poster HOW he can correct his mistake.
It's doubtful we'll need to wait 5-10 years to see what happens with VALE. A big shift in the equity and commodity markets could take place at any time.
You tell the OP what to do, and we'll all meet back here in 2016 to compare, and see whose plan is working out best so far, yours or the OPs.
here's another example of a smart investor: Seth Klarman, with his purchases of IDIX. Lots of short term traders were mocking him on the IDIX msg board when IDIX was trading in the 3's, because short term traders have very little understanding what smart investing means. most of those short term traders were short IDIX, just as you're short SNTA. Might want to take a look and see how that whole story turned out before you take on any more ill advised risk. I know serf-importantly mocking a billionaire on a yahoo message boards makes you feel good now, but I doubt you'll consider this small pleasure worth cost, when you end up losing your life savings.
If you're dreaming of a trading price of $10 it meas you are VERY late to the trade and have foolishly shorted at the lows, which is certainly not investing, and doesn't even deserve to be called trading, it's pure gambling.
Here's the fact you need to confront: if THRX cuts the dividend at all, they won't cut it before you close your short. So that means you get to pay it out of your own pocket. Obviously you don't like paying it, and that's why you're desperately hoping it gets cut.
Shorting a stock where the big short money has already been made on a 50% + drop, is never a wise idea, unless you have some insider info to justify your position, though they wouldn't be wise either, since it would be illegal.
Or maybe you think there's just no limit to the downside here because THRX is going bankrupt soon?
Or maybe you've forgotten that THRX will be bought out by GSK, and no one knows when it will happen, but it could happen any time?
I remember plenty of posts by characters like you on the IDIX board, not long before IDIX was bought out for 250% higher than the price it was trading at. I hope you're prepared for that eventuality. with THRX. At least I hope you're more prepared for it than the IDIX shorts were. They spent a lot of time screaming about how IDIX was headed for the pinks. And now? They've lost their trading accounts. That's how the market rewards those who think they know things nobody else does. Just like you think you know a dividend cut is coming, and prefer to ignore things which are much more widely known, because they jeopardize the short position you're defending here. A dangerous approach if you ask me. Good luck ; you're going to need it!
What's kind of odd is the market has basically crashed, but nobody seems to have noticed. A loss of 50%!constitutes a crash! not just a correction, and a very large number of stocks have lost 50% or more this year. Some have lost more than 50% in the month of September alone. Many people who were trading on margin have had their accounts reduced to ashes in the last 30 days. Some may actually be out of the game. Yet you still have a lot of clueless commentators out there speculating on whether or not we are finally going to get a 10% correction. This just goes to show the kind of distortion thst enters into market commentary when people consider nothin but indexes. Indexes are themselves artificial creations, and not representative of the market as a whole. And when the situation is made exponentially more artificial by QE and central banks indexes are even less reliable indicators. Of course the media does not want to use the dreaded word crash. We must not have any panic. Just wipe out accounts across the country and pretend nothing has happened. Maybe we can even lure a large number of retail investors into the market if nobody notices what's going on, right? Soon the news will be full of people yelling what a great sale, everybody rush into the market now buy buy buy.
You got it. Big player starting new position or major owner adding to position.
Notice the trade was done in the last few minutes of Fridays trading. That's when you do things if you don't want to be noticed, trying to be as discreet as possible. He did not want to be noticed and he did not want competition when he bought.
That purchase raised AVEO 14% in the blink of an eye taking it from 1.14 to 1.30.
We are lucky to be able to buy under 1.50. Fact is anyone who owns a few thousand shares of this at any price under 7 is likely to be very rich within 5 years or so. Yes, I said 7. People who are passing up the opportunity to buy under 2 are just blind.
Because DE is gold selling for the price of tin.
Comeuppance for the shorts on this board too. A lot of them were pumping AGCO while bashing DE.
I guess the group of short sellers or employees of a short fund who have made this message board their official bashing zone aren't too thrilled about today's strong close.
Keep trying guys. Let's hear some more from all the knowledge farmers out there who know DE is doomed and warn us to run for our lives from this stock.
The price you buy doesn't matter much if you buy and size and have patience. We get caught up with the price because we are watching it every day. Wise managers don't watch day to day price movements. They buy based in some fundamental reason. Klarman's average price on IDIX. Was at least 100% higher than what many of us who were long IDIX paid. Doesn't much matter. No one made even one tenth of the money he made on that investment, given how much he owned.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This being said, thrx is a very safe play, even in this environment of fierce bio selling. Since it will be bought out by GSK eventually and the price they pay will reflect its real value, which is much higher than it is trading for now, so you do have a margin of safety here you have with very few other bio stocks. You just need to have the patience to go along with it and a willingness to buy. Bios have crashed this year, and who knows, next year the entire market could crash. Makes no difference how fiercely they short this and how far they drove it down. When GSK comes in they will still have to pay what it's worth, not what price it happens to be trading it. Some shorts will be wiped out on thst day, make no mistske about it, just as IDIX shirts were wiped out earlier this year. Only other bio play I really like and feel also has a good margin of safety is SNTA. Accumulate any time it dips under 4 and just hold patiently, same as with THRX. The day will come.
There is a reason but I don't think it is specific to thrx as much as to the sector as a whole. Less about fundamentals, more about trends in trading. It has been a pretty rough year for bios. You won't find too many that haven't sold off hard.
Same reason it fell a lot during past months without any news... And continued to fall even with good news...
Buy now, ask questions later
Short term traders don't make money trading the obvious. But I don't recommend you try to compete with them. Invest in the future.